Climate change - a New Zealand perspective

Physical and environmental impacts of climate change

According to projections from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, climate change will have environmental effects throughout the country:

  • The risk of drought is expected to increase in already drought-prone areas, such as inland and north Otago, eastern Canterbury and Marlborough, parts of Wairarapa, Hawkes Bay, the Bay of Plenty, the Coromandel and Northland.
  • The frequency of severe droughts is expected to increase across many eastern parts of New Zealand by 2080. For example, in a ‘low-medium’ scenario, Marlborough could experience a one-in-20-year drought event every three to five years by 2080.
  • Droughts may happen in spring and autumn, not just summer.
  • Very heavy rainfall events may increase in many parts of New Zealand, even in those areas where the average annual rainfall decreases.
  • It is expected to be wetter in the west and drier in the east.
  • Temperatures are expected to increase, with greater increases in the winter, and in the north of New Zealand.
  • Frost risk is expected to decrease, while the risk of very high temperatures will increase.
  • Westerly winds are expected to increase in strength and frequency.
  • There is expected to be an increased risk of forest fires.
  • The sea level is expected to rise.

The costs of climate change

The costs of climate change could be significant for New Zealand and its land management sectors. Estimated costs of past natural disasters provide insights into the level of costs we are likely to face:

  • drought costs in 1997/98 were estimated at $1 billion;
  • the cost of the Lower North Island floods in 2004 was estimated at over $300 million.

The land-based sectors will bear most of the risks, impacts and costs of the physical effects of climate change. They also stand to benefit the most from a successful climate change Plan of Action.

New Zealand agriculture and climate change

Globally, 14 percent of greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture. In comparison, 49 percent of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions come from the agricultural sector. The emissions consist of methane from livestock, and nitrous oxide from animal waste and nitrogen fertiliser use.

New Zealand’s agricultural emissions have grown by 1 percent per year since 1990, and are predicted to continue to grow at this rate over the medium term.

Recent productivity gains in the agricultural sector have been driven by increases in the use of nitrogen fertiliser, improved animal genetics and other on-farm technologies. These productivity gains have led to lower emissions per unit, but the environmental effects of decades of fertiliser use and animal-intensive farm production are becoming apparent in our waterways, ground water and lakes.

The agricultural sector currently contributes 52 percent of the value of our exports and 10 percent of our GDP. Its GDP contribution is expected to rise from $7.6 billion at March 2006 to $8.7 billion by March 2008. The continued health and vitality of the agricultural sector is vital to the continued growth of the New Zealand economy.

New Zealand forestry and climate change

New Zealand’s forestry sector exports wood products to more than 30 countries. Total export earnings for the year to June 2006 were $3.2 billion, or 10.4 percent of New Zealand’s merchandise exports.

Forestry delivers many environmental benefits and these can help us both build a more sustainable economy and adapt to climate change.

Forests can reduce flood peaks during major storms, and rates of erosion by up to 90 percent on hill country land under pasture.

In terms of water quality, forests can reduce harmful micro-organisms, sediment, nutrient runoff and high temperatures.

Forestry also has a major role to play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As trees grow, they absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it as wood. When forests are harvested and not replanted, the carbon they once stored is released back into the atmosphere.

Globally, about 20 percent of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions into the atmosphere come from deforestation. In New Zealand, deforestation of plantation forests has increased rapidly in recent years, and this is expected to continue unless measures are introduced to actively manage the process.

Contact for Enquiries

Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change
MAF
Pastoral House
25 The Terrace
PO Box 2526, Wellington
Tel: 0800 CLIMATE (254 628)
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