Area of forest ‘at risk’ from deforestation
Summary and Conclusions
The various methods of determining the ‘profitability’ of switching land use from forestry to agriculture produce similar results. All suggest that switching from forestry to pastoral use is commercially justifiable only if the land is capable of sustaining intensive stock production (in some cases) or dairying. An upper limit to the commercial gain from converting land from forestry to one of these pastoral uses would appear to be of the order of $10,000 per hectare.
The MAF commissioned (Manley) report on possible deforestation indicates that up to 170,000 hectares of forest land may be deforested over the next 15 years. A preliminary GIS evaluation indicates that perhaps as much as 455,000 hectares of the current plantation estate might be considered to be ‘at risk’ of deforestation. A modified version of the GIS, which attempts to reflect some of the restrictions likely to prevent unfettered land use change reduced this ‘at risk’ area to just over 280,000 hectares. Better specification of the restrictions would likely reduce the area still further and points towards some agreement between the ‘at risk’ area and surveyed deforestation intentions.
Both the Manley report and the GIS analysis indicate that a significant percentage of the area at risk of being deforested is within the CNI. The vast majority of this land will be non-Kyoto forest, though as yet actual areas cannot be separated. The Manley report indicates over 50% of the projected deforestation out to 2020 will be from the CNI and that during the Kyoto Protocol’s CP1 two-thirds of all deforestation is likely to be from within this area. The GIS study indicates that there is enough ‘at risk’ forest in the CNI to support both these scenarios.
Maps
Figure 1: Area of Land Potentially At Risk of ‘Profitable’ Conversion from Forestry to Pastoral Use
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Figure 2: Modified Area of Land Potentially At Risk of ‘Profitable’ Conversion from Forestry to Pastoral Use
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Contact for Enquiries
Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change
MAF
Pastoral House
25 The Terrace
PO Box 2526, Wellington
Tel: 0800 CLIMATE (254 628)
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