Area of forest ‘at risk’ from deforestation
Introduction
Large-scale deforestation of planted forests (land use change from forest to other uses – principally grazing) is a new phenomenon. Over recent decades deforestation rates have been low. Our best estimate is that between 2-4% of the area harvested each year has typically been deforested. However, in the last year or so deforestation rates have increased sharply. In 2005 the area deforested was estimated to have been approximately 18% of the area harvested.
While deforestation is a national issue it is in fact a significant issue for only two regions of NZ: the Central North Island (CNI); and Canterbury. A survey commissioned by MAF in December 2005 (the Manley report) indicated that, without policy intervention or a significant change to the projected profitability of various land uses, something like 170,000 ha of the existing plantation estate would be deforested over the period from 2005 to 2020.
In the Manley report the forecast national ‘base case’ deforestation for the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008-12, CP1) is 47,000 hectares. That level of deforestation would represent approximately 20% of the projected harvest over this period.
Some 70 percent of the projected CP1 deforestation is accounted for by the deforestation projected for CNI and Canterbury. Canterbury’s contribution to this total is 7% (3,300 ha) while that of the CNI is projected to be 29,000 ha (or 63% of the total).
The Manley report is based on a survey-interview study of forest owners’ deforestation intentions conducted in 2005 by Professor Bruce Manley of Canterbury University. The approach used for projecting deforestation rates was adopted after Professor Manley analysed a range of options as to how such estimates might be made. He concluded that the survey-interview approach was superior to attempting to analyse underlying financial drivers for conversion, since there are so many unknown variables with such an approach that it is unlikely to give reliable results on its own.
At present most deforestation appears to be to resulting in conversion to intensive (irrigated and non-irrigated) pastoral farming – mainly dairying, and intensive sheep/beef. ‘Profitability’ of any conversion is both site and situation specific but, that acknowledged, there does appear to be sufficient data, studies and comment to allow for some generalised observations and analysis as to the ‘typical’ range of direct commercial benefit to be had from converting land from forestry to agriculture – particularly in those areas where this is most frequently occurring.
Contact for Enquiries
Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change
MAF
Pastoral House
25 The Terrace
PO Box 2526, Wellington
Tel: 0800 CLIMATE (254 628)
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