The EcoClimate Report:Climate change and agricultural production
Potential benefits and costs of a changing climate on New Zealand’s future agricultural production
A consortium of national experts, EcoClimate, prepared the report using projections from global climate models as a starting point. The report uses down-scaled global models to make projections on future temperatures, rainfall and droughts across the regions of New Zealand. The economic effect of these projections was then estimated on dairy, sheep and beef farming production. The results provide useful information for New Zealand's land management sectors, including farmers, foresters, growers and regional councils, to use for risk assessment and future planning.
The EcoClimate report findings indicate that we can expect changes in the way the rural environment responds to a changing climate. For an average year in the future, the projected changes to pasture production are small when averaged across the country. Production is projected to increase in Southland and the West Coast of the South Island but production is also projected to decrease in some east coast areas and Northland. Pasture drying in spring is likely to begin earlier and there may be an earlier start to pasture growth in the late winter or spring. In response, farmers may adapt to the changes by having lambs ready for the works earlier than at present.
The report, however, paints a different picture for droughts in some regions in extreme years. The projected national decrease in pasture production due to drought is worse than the driest year in the 1972-2002 period (which includes the serious droughts of 1977/78 and 1997/98).
A literature review was also prepared on the past costs of droughts and floods affecting New Zealand agriculture. The review showed that the national costs of drought are related to the number of days of soil moisture deficit. The greater the deficit, the greater the cost is likely to be. The costs of floods depend on many factors including land use, assets at risk and vulnerability, as well as the severity of the weather event. This means that the costs of floods cannot be reliably estimated from a few simple indicators. However, the impacts and cost summaries provided in the report’s appendix may be useful for risk assessment.
This report allows land managers and government to begin understanding what a changing climate may mean for land management and the best way to adapt to these changes. The government is developing a five year adaptation programme with primary sectors, Maori and local government, as part of the Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change Plan of Action.
The work within the report is an initial study, based on a limited set of climate model runs, and it contains some assumptions. The authors stress that the report should be viewed as part of a risk assessment of how production could change across the country, rather than a firm prediction for the future. The report is summarised on the following pages:
- Background to the climate study
- Dealing with a range of possible futures
- National averages, regional differences
- Projected changes in production
Final report [2.7M PDF]: Costs and Benefits of Climate Change and Adaptation to Climate Change in New Zealand Agriculture: What Do We Know so Far? Contract report by EcoClimate Consortium: Integrated Research on the Economics of Climate Change Impacts Adaptation and Mitigation. Wellington: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 112 pages.
Contact for Enquiries
Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change
MAF
Pastoral House
25 The Terrace
PO Box 2526, Wellington
Tel: 0800 CLIMATE (254 628)
Contact this person
