Adapting to climate change in the kiwifruit industry

Authors: Gavin Kenny, with contributions from Alan Porteous

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Executive summary

A focus on adaptation encourages a shift towards positive thinking and actions in relation to climate change. The results of this study, founded on engagement with key kiwifruit growers, strongly reinforce this view. This study has built on a foundation of work that has focused on climate change and kiwifruit, as well as previous adaptation work with farmers and kiwifruit growers. The kiwifruit industry is currently well placed to adopt a planned, proactive, approach to adaptation. The timing is right for such an approach. This and previous work has provided some valuable momentum with a core group of growers engaged, a number of whom are keen to contribute to next steps. There are key areas that need attention, the most important ones being:

Communication and education throughout the industry on climate change and adaptation with a focus towards practical solutions and actions.
Long-term strategic research aimed at making the most of the climate resource in the future and minimising risks and costs. Of fundamental importance is breeding of new varieties that require less winter chilling and produce high quality fruit. Pest and disease issues, water and the evolution of management and post-harvest systems will all require some attention as well.
The identification and realisation of marketing opportunities. There is an opportunity for the kiwifruit industry to profile positive stories in relation to climate change and adaptation.
Water allocation issues need to be resolved for the future. Environment Bay of Plenty is currently working on a Water Sustainability Strategy for the western Bay of Plenty. It is hoped that the opportunity to resolve relevant issues will be taken in the development of this strategy.

The wider relevance of this work is in the grounding of current scientific knowledge with practical, forward thinking people. A two way dialogue emerges from such an approach. On the one hand people on the ground are more informed about the science and able to make it relevant and real in what they are doing and in their future planning. On the other hand the information and thinking shared by people on the ground provides insight and direction that is very relevant for the policy and science communities. It provides the opportunity to be strategic, practical, efficient and effective with our resources.

Key findings from Parts 1 and 2 of this report are presented below.

Part 1 – The current state of knowledge

Climate variability and change

As with other New Zealand regions, the changeable climate of the Bay of Plenty is a result of natural variability and chaos along with influences from observed phenomena.
Observed phenomena include variations as a result of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and an underlying warming trend (0.1ºC per decade over the last 100 years) which is consistent with human-induced climate change.
Current scenarios of climate change show a mid-range warming in all kiwifruit growing regions of about 1ºC by the 2040s and 2ºC by the 2090s. The scenarios indicate drier winter and spring conditions in eastern North Island growing regions including the Bay of Plenty with slightly wetter summer and autumn conditions in the Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay and Nelson/Tasman.
There will be changes in extreme weather events in all regions with the possibility of increased westerly winds in winter and spring, decreased frost risk, increased incidence of high temperatures in summer, increased frequency of extreme daily rainfalls, and a possible increase in strong winds.

Impacts on kiwifruit

All published impact studies to-date have focused on the Green (‘Hayward’) variety. Since the first published assessment of impacts in New Zealand (MfE, 1990), winter chilling has been recognised as a key indicator of sensitivity to climate change of kiwifruit.
Research completed in the 1990s as part of the CLIMPACTS research programme showed that a warmer climate would lead to later budbreak, a drop in flower numbers, and a southward shift in regions with the best temperature conditions for Green kiwifruit. It was concluded that production of Green in the Bay of Plenty would become uneconomic by the middle of this century without HC or a suitable substitute.

Overview of adaptation

Adaptation involves measures to either reduce vulnerability or increase resilience in response to changes in climate that may be experienced or anticipated.
In the first published assessment of impacts in New Zealand (MfE, 1990) it was suggested that relocation of the kiwifruit industry could be required.
In a more recent review (Kenny, 2001) a phased adaptation response was recommended with a focus towards breeding of new varieties and maintenance of production of high quality fruit in the Bay of Plenty.
Initial consultations on adaptation were held with growers and others in the Bay of Plenty in 2006. Key messages from this work were:
- Climate change is clearly an issue that the industry needs to take a lot more seriously, but there is a need to go beyond the talking.
- Use existing growers as role models. There are a number who are already doing relevant things.
- The water situation needs to be sorted out with Environment Bay of Plenty taking the lead on this.
- Coordination between the different parties is needed to ensure consistent messages are being given out.
In order to go beyond the talking the key advice was to focus in more depth on innovative growers who have potential to provide leadership on adaptation.

Part 2 – In-depth consultations on adaptation

Current climate challenges

There is a general consensus that over the last five years the seasons have notably changed towards warmer winters, less reliable spring conditions with increased frost risk, and warmer autumns.
Such changes are generally consistent with seasonal trends identified by NIWA and are consistent with current scenarios of climate change. It should be noted that there is an observed trend towards warmer spring conditions and an expectation that frost incidence will decrease in frequency over time with climate change. This does not exclude the possibility of damaging events as experienced with greater frequency in recent years.
Main concerns and challenges are related to loss of winter chilling with warmer winters, increased risk of late spring frost, effects of warmer autumns. There is also some concern with a possible increased frequency of hail and of insect pests.
There are on-going challenges with strong winds, particularly with Gold kiwifruit in the period from November through to early January.

Current management tools/systems

Kiwifruit growers are faced with a significant challenge to deal with the inherent variability of climate, changes in climate and other issues, and to consistently produce high volumes of a quality crop for the market.
There are a relatively small number of growers who are actively meeting this challenge. These growers are providing leadership and are actively involved in experimentation and innovation.
The majority of growers and managers are apparently struggling, as reflected in low average returns in recent years.
The current adaptive capacity, in terms of available management tools and systems, is high. There is a wide array of management tools and systems available to growers including traditional tools such as HC, increased sophistication with microclimate and canopy management, and emerging interest in biological soil management.
Key factors in innovation are a willingness to go outside the square and push boundaries, as apparent with the development of a biennial cropping system for Gold, and taking time to interact with and learn from other growers.
Warmer autumns in recent years have led to changes in post-harvest management.

Climate change

There is increased awareness of climate change.
The greatest concern is with the potential for increased frequency of extreme weather events. There is also concern with the effects of warmer winters and autumns, effects on rainfall patterns and changes to pests and diseases.
Warmer spring and summer conditions will be beneficial.

Adaptations to future climate change

A planned, proactive, approach to climate change and adaptation is required.
There is confidence that growers and the industry as a whole have the capacity to adapt to a progressive warming of the climate. There is some concern regarding potential for increased frequency of extreme weather events.
There are a lot of adaptation options with current tools and practices, there is on-going innovation and experimentation and a few growers are actively taking account of climate change in the things they are doing.
Over time there will be changes in variety (more Gold, less Green, new varieties), location (sites with cooler winters) and land use (different crops, subdivision).
There is no clear alternative to HC, which is more effective with some winter chilling. A general trend towards more organic-type approaches, driven by market requirements, will reinforce the need for new varieties that require less winter chilling.
There are developments happening that are of high relevance to future adaptation. Important developments include the biennial cropping system that has been developed for Gold, experimentation with above canopy and sub-canopy shelter, and biological soil management.
In most cases there is sufficient rainfall in the Bay of Plenty and projected rainfall changes are unlikely to be detrimental. Security of supply is becoming an issue for many growers. Some growers have already developed dams to capture and store runoff. Water allocation issues need to be resolved for the future.
Post-harvest operations are already adapting to warmer autumns and will continue to adapt with a focus on issues related to removal of field heat, fruit curing prior to storage, and improved insulation and increased energy efficiency of coolstores.
There will be on-going changes in ownership structure in the industry, with the possibility of more corporate ownership and fewer owner operators. It is difficult to gauge how such changes will affect adaptive capacity over time. Regardless of the ownership structure the industry will still need innovators and risk takers to provide leadership.

Industry responses to support adaptation

Confidence in adaptability of the industry is balanced with a recognition that a planned, proactive, approach to adaptation is required to minimise risks and maximise opportunities.
Communication and education are the key to engaging growers and others more widely in actively thinking about, planning for and acting on adaptation to climate change.
ZESPRI has a key role to play in supporting a planned, proactive approach to adaptation. Integration of adaptation, alongside appropriate mitigation responses, into an emergent focus on sustainability is a sensible and cost effective way to operate.
An important next step is to bring together key growers who have already been engaged with to focus on priority issues and a way forward. It is very important that this steps beyond the foundation work on adaptation completed in 2006 and what has been achieved through this current project.
Relevant information needs to be collated for wide dissemination. Immediate outcomes from this work include an article for the kiwifruit grower magazine and a Kiwitech bulletin (a technical information series developed by ZESPRI) on climate change and adaptation. Other suggestions include:
- Develop a whole information package for ZESPRI staff and growers.
- Develop a comprehensive inventory of adaptation tools and a system for documenting what growers are doing.
- Produce a series of short articles to go out in the monthly Kiwi Flier newsletter.
- Provide a condensed summary of climate change and adaptation for the ZESPRI grower services team.
- Provide a full copy of this report to the ZESPRI library so that growers who want the detail can access it.
- Explore the marketing opportunities with this information.
Disseminate relevant information through field days that are focused on adaptation to climate change.
Support relevant underpinning research, focusing in particular on plant breeding, crop protection and water. A proactive approach is essential as it cannot be assumed, for example, that new varieties with low chill requirements will emerge by default.
A positive, proactive, approach to adaptation which is integrated within a wider sustainability focus could provide marketing opportunities.

Role of regional and central government

Both regional and central government have important roles to play in supporting the adaptive capacity of the kiwifruit industry.
At regional level there needs to be active engagement between the kiwifruit industry and regional government to resolve concerns regarding water allocation.
At national level it is important that necessary support is provided to enable the kiwifruit industry to adapt to climate change effectively and in a coordinated manner. Key areas for support include long-term strategic research and strict biosecurity controls.

Contact for Enquiries

Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change
MAF
Pastoral House
25 The Terrace
PO Box 2526, Wellington
Tel: 0800 CLIMATE (254 628)
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