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The forecasts contained in the Regional Studies are based on modelling carried out by the New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd (Forest Research) using area and yield data from the National Exotic Forest Description (NEFD). The NEFD Steering Committee and Forest Research’s Resource Evaluation Group jointly developed the modelling assumptions and constraints.

Wood supply modelling scenarios for the period 2000 to 2040 are included in the Regional Study to illustrate the impact of harvest age and levels of new planting on future wood supplies. Three harvesting scenarios use target ages for radiata pine of 25 (early cut), 28 (base cut) and 35 (late cut) years. The early and late cut scenarios provide estimates of the upper and lower limits within which the future levels of harvest are expected to fall. The current outlook suggests that the future harvest from New Zealand’s planted forests is likely to fall between the base cut and late cut scenarios in the short to medium term.

Wood supply regions are zones in New Zealand where forest stands of the same species and tending regime are represented by the same generalised NEFD yield table. These regions reflect wood supply catchments, and reconcile with aggregates of territorial authorities. The NEFD Steering Committee identified ten regions in 1989.

Three levels of national new planting were also modelled, using 20 000, 40 000 and 60 000 hectares per year. The impact of new planting does not significantly increase the New Zealand wood supply until 2022. The scenario based on planting 40 000 hectares per year is the current best estimate of future new planting. The other two new planting scenarios provide likely estimates of lower and upper bounds. All three scenarios assume a target harvest age for radiata pine of 28 years.

Radiata pine is modelled on a non-declining yield basis in all scenarios, and all areas clearfelled are assumed to be replanted in the year following clearfelling.

The wood supply forecasts are only indicative of the future potential of the resource and the assumptions do not necessarily reflect actual harvesting intentions.