Future Focus: Signposts to Success for New Zealand's Primary Industries
Appendix 4 - Scenario Development: “Locked-down World” or “Think Global Act Local”
Establishing existing and emerging trends allows identification of key uncertainties, which can then be used to build scenarios – plausible representations of possible future states. Scenarios can be neither right nor wrong, but are useful devices for testing strategic priorities and directions.
Appendix 4 provides an example of limited scenario development looking forward to 2020. A number of trends and impacts are mapped, and by grouping them together, two separate scenarios, “Locked-down world” and “Think global, act local”, are developed, as briefly described on page 32.
“Locked-down world”
“Food miles” and related concerns have become market realities, and despite concerted efforts in New Zealand to promoted development of credible international standards, are driving customer purchasing behaviour in terms of New Zealand exports. Transport costs are very high because of the need to internalise the cost of greenhouse gas emissions. The global price of carbon is double the predictions of a decade earlier. The shipping industry has continued to consolidate and New Zealand ports are now visited less frequently, but by much larger vessels. Biosecurity issues have escalated, and global trade has been affected by a major pandemic in the last five years. There are also major regional conflicts over energy and water resources, causing further disruption to trade.
“Think global, act local”
Although carbon prices and energy prices generally are much higher than forecast a decade earlier, and consolidation of the shipping industry is a challenge to New Zealand supply and distribution chains, New Zealand firms have increased agility by developing new business models that source production offshore. They also have robust intellectual property protection and retain key knowledge assets in New Zealand. Exporters continue to benefit from increased market demand in Asia-Pacific and have built strong brands through strategic private and public investment in environmental technologies. Building on its reputation for credible verification and assurance systems, New Zealand has led development of international environmental standards and eco-verification, from which producers and exporters also benefit.
Thinking about the scenarios
The kind of questions that can be asked in relation to scenarios are: “What should we do differently/the same?” “What should we do more/less of?” “What else should we do?” “Where should we lead, and where should we follow?”
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