Comparison with Previous Forecasts
Wood supply forecasts have been produced for New Zealand's planted forests since 1969. This examination is confined to a comparison of the forecasts contained in this report with the NEFD 1996 National and Regional Wood Supply Forecasts (Ministry of Forestry, 1996).
Graph 5 compares the 1996 and latest forecasts for the national base cut scenario. The latest forecasts show that the rate of increase over the period 2000 to 2003 is more rapid than in the 1996 forecasts. In addition the long run sustainable wood supply is a little higher, approaching 35 million cubic metres as compared to the 1996 forecasts where the long-run forecast volume fluctuated between 31 to 32 million cubic metres.
The long term increase in forecast volume can be explained primarily by the increase in forest area in the younger age classes since the 1996 forecasts were produced. The increase in the potential rate of harvest between 2000 to 2003 is due to an accumulation in the volume of wood in the forest estate. This increase in stock is due to the actual volume harvested in the years 1996 to 2000 falling below the potentially available supply as indicated in the 1996 base cut scenario. During this period there was weak demand in key export markets caused by the Asian financial crisis.
Graph 5: Comparison of Actual Harvest, 1996 and 2000
National Wood Supply Forecasts for the Base Cut Scenarios
Table 12 shows the forest areas used in the 1996 and 2000 forecasts.
Table 12: Comparison of Forest Areas Used for 1996 and 2000 NEFD Wood Supply Forecasts (hectares)
| Wood supply region | 1996 | 2000 | Change in area from 1996 to 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northland 1 | 159 973 | 204 310 | 44 337 |
| Auckland | 87 272 | 54 082 | -33 190 |
| Central North Island | 549 552 | 571 031 | 21 479 |
| East Coast | 138 248 | 150 919 | 12 671 |
| Hawkes Bay | 108 606 | 125 981 | 17 375 |
| Southern North Island | 121 395 | 154 635 | 33 240 |
| Nelson & Marlborough | 159 762 | 177 372 | 17 610 |
| West Coast | 29 855 | 33 931 | 4 076 |
| Canterbury | 100 871 | 116 828 | 15 957 |
| Otago & Southland | 164 692 | 187 003 | 22 311 |
| New Zealand total | 1 620 226 | 1 776 092 | 155 866 |
Note:
1. Northland now includes Rodney District. In the 1996 forecasts Rodney District was
included in the Auckland wood supply region.
