Climate Change and Land Management in Hawkes Bay
The following article by Gavin Kenny reports on a pilot study commissioned by the Hawkes Bay Regional Council and the Ministry for the Environment on climate change and land management in Hawkes Bay.
The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of what is known about climate change in the region, what the issues are relating to possible impacts, and what the needs are relating to adaptation. Its particular focus was to bridge current scientific understanding with local expertise and knowledge of current issues and problems. This was achieved through a consultation process involving selected farmers, growers, industry people, scientists and Maori. The study also aimed at developing an understanding that adaptation to climate change can be best addressed through developing a long-term perspective in addressing current problems. Through this process it was possible to gauge the degree to which there was a need for a proactive approach to adaptation and what measures, if any, need to be taken to implement such an approach in Hawkes Bay.
There is a good awareness of climate change in the region, although understanding of the science is clouded to some degree by confused messages through the media. A good example is the seasonal and longer-term climate projections. At various times the media provide information on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), and climate change. A recent report on the IPO suggests the potential for moister conditions on average in Hawkes Bay over the next 20-30 years. At the same time the media have reported that climate change could lead to warmer, drier conditions on average in Hawkes Bay. The response of the rural sector to such information is "what do I plan for?". There is no simple answer, with the key lying in the need to gather better information on what the risks are in the region and identifying and implementing climate proofing strategies with a long-term sustainability picture in mind.
With an underlying trend from climate change towards warmer and drier conditions on average over the next 70-100 years, key issues identified were:
- Water - security of water supply is an issue now throughout Hawkes Bay and will become a bigger issue in future.Biosecurity - undesirable sub-tropical grasses and insect pests are already present with the potential to spread rapidly and become much greater threats to the region. A good example is Tasmanian grass grub, the spread of which was triggered during the warmer, drier, conditions experienced in the 1990s.
- Species survival - some summer dry hill country areas are already marginal and would be worst affected by warmer, drier, conditions as existing pasture species may not survive.
There is a strong belief among farmers and growers in Hawkes Bay that they have the capacity to cope with climate change and its effects, but at the same time they recognise that there are issues (such as those identified above) that are likely to require proactive measures. The study identified measures that could be evaluated and implemented over time, both to address gaps in knowledge and understanding and to provide the framework for a long-term adaptation strategy, including:
- more clearly identifying the risks, and areas in the region at risk, in the context of the most robust climate change scenarios. This would also need to take account of the 20-30 year cycles that appear to result from the IPO, and also the effects arising from ENSO and other fluctuations in climate;
- developing monitoring activities, which identify and quantify climate and biological changes that are taking place over time, and focus on identified risks and areas at risk;
- developing a greater capacity for resilient farming systems for the present and future that are both economically viable and ecologically sustainable;
- developing and implementing a region-wide education and information dissemination programme.
Ideally such measures need to be implemented through an integrated approach to land and water resource management in Hawkes Bay, which links climate change to other issues such as biodiversity, biosecurity and land degradation. Such an approach would ensure both short- and long-term benefits to the region, even in the absence of the worst effects of climate change. If adopted, this approach would provide a lead for other regions in New Zealand at a time when such leadership is vital, given the likely challenges of an uncertain future in which climate change will play an increasingly important, but not isolated, part.
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Dr Gavin Kenny Gavin has degrees in horticultural science and a PhD in agricultural meteorology. He has over 10 years of research experience in the field of climate change, which have included project work in Europe, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, the Pacific Islands and New Zealand. Through his overseas experience he also became increasingly involved in professional training and development assistance work, the latter involving a project with an agricultural university in northern Vietnam. Since the beginning of 2001 Gavin has been working as an independent consultant, based in Hawkes Bay. Aside from his ongoing climate change work he is also involved with the organic sector, and is currently managing a Sustainable Farming Fund project on behalf of the Soil and Health and Bio Dynamic Associations. |
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Amber Duncalfe
Editor - RM Update
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
PO Box 2526
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NEW ZEALAND
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