Climate Change Will Increase Rural Fire Danger
New Zealand experiences around 3000 vegetation wildfires each year that burn around 7000 hectares of rural lands. Strong winds, high temperatures, low humidity and seasonal drought can combine to produce dangerous fire weather situations. A recently published report from the National Institute of Water and Atmosphere (NIWA) and Scion, prepared for the Fire Service Commission, looks at how climate change over the rest of the century will affect the risk of rural fires in NZ.
Results from this study indicate that under future "fire climate" NZ is likely to experience more severe fire weather and fire danger. This will result in increased fire risk including:
- longer fire seasons (from September to May instead of the current October to April) and increased drought frequency, and associated increases in fuel drying;
- easier ignition, and therefore a greater number of fires;
- drier and windier conditions, resulting in faster fire spread, greater areas burned, and increased fire suppression costs and damages;
- greater fuel availability and increased fire intensities, increased resource requirements and more difficult fire suppression; and
- increased frequency of thunderstorms and lightning.
The areas most at risk would be the Bay of Plenty, the east of both Islands and the central (Wellington/Nelson) regions.
The scientists note that it's possible that some of this risk might be offset by increased rainfall, including greater rain amounts and more frequent events. They also say there is an increased chance of extreme rain events occurring, including fire season-ending rain events of "significant magnitude".
Contact for Enquiries
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
Pastoral House
25 The Terrace
PO Box 2526, Wellington
Tel: 0800 00 83 33
Fax: +64 4 894 0720
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