Auckland wood availability forecasts for the period 2008–2040
Concluding comments
The forecasts indicate that the availability of radiata pine from the Auckland region forest estate is expected to decline over the next three years, and then remain relatively constant at around 800 000 cubic metres per annum until 2019. After 2019 wood availability is expected to return to current levels of around 1 million cubic metres per annum from 2022.
Most of the wood available from 2019 on will come from the region’s small-scale forests that were established in the 1990s. The actual timing of the harvest from these forests will depend on market conditions and the decisions of a large number of small-scale owners. This region is not likely to be as affected by logistical constraints as seen in other wood supply regions, as the increases in wood availability are relatively modest and the logistical constraints in Auckland are not as major as in other regions.
Some owners will be motivated to harvest early while others may decide to grow their forests for longer. This is likely to spread the harvesting of the post-1990 forest plantings out over a longer period than might be the case if forests were harvested at rotation age. Greater harvesting during this period could have the effect of dampening log prices. On the other hand, if domestic log prices increased during this period of increasing wood availability, then harvesting rates would rise more quickly to meet local demand.
Depending on the rate of harvesting from the region’s post-1990 forests, wood availability is expected to decrease after 2034, leading to a drop in log volumes once the post-1990s forests have been harvested.
MAF is currently finalising a report on the Auckland region forest industry, in association with the major growers and processors in the region. This report will contain these wood availability forecasts along with descriptions of the region’s forests, wood processing industries and infrastructure. This report will also describe the opportunities and constraints facing the forest industry in the Auckland region.
Contact for Enquiries
Policy Adviser
Pastoral House
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington 6140
NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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