Auckland wood availability forecasts for the period 2008–2040
Overview
Five scenarios have been modelled to indicate the potential wood availability from the planted production forests in the Auckland region for the period 2008 to 2040.
The Auckland wood supply region includes the Waikato and Matamata-Piako districts in the south, the Coromandel Peninsula, Franklin district and the large urban area of the Auckland isthmus and its surrounding cities.
The wood availability forecasts are intended to describe the possible range of harvest volumes available from the Auckland region. They are based on the region’s forest resource and the forecasting assumptions described later in this report. The forecasts have been developed incorporating the harvesting intentions of the following large-scale forest owners (those with 1000 hectares of forest or more):
- Matariki Forests;
- Ernslaw One;
- NZ Forestry Group;
- NZ Super Fund;
- Viking/OTPP;
- Crown Forests (MAF).
The forecasts incorporate the views of the region’s forest owners, managers and consultants to ensure they represent a realistic range of future wood availability scenarios.
A key issue is the timing of harvesting by the small-scale forest owners, which will be driven by a range of factors including individual forest owners’ objectives, forest age, log prices, demand by local wood processing plants, and perceptions about future log prices and future wood supply.
The scenarios presented indicate there are many different ways for the forest estate in the Auckland region to be harvested. It should be recognised that the forests are managed to maximise the benefits to the enterprises that own them. Each enterprise has its own harvest strategy based on the forest owners’ objectives, market conditions and the forest estate that it owns or manages. Any change in harvesting strategy by forest owners affects the age-structure and maturity of the forests it owns. This in turn feeds back directly into future wood availability.
Different levels of uncertainty are associated with the wood availability from each component of the estate. The volumes forecast from the large-scale owners’ estates are also subject to change because of changes in harvest intentions or in the resource description (areas and yields). Yet, they have greater certainty than the forecast of availability from the small-scale estate. Not only are harvest intentions less clear for small-scale owners, the resource description is potentially less accurate also.
Contact for Enquiries
Policy Adviser
Pastoral House
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington 6140
NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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