Canterbury wood availability forecasts for the period 2007–2040
Introduction
These forecasts show the range of harvest volumes potentially available from the plantation forests in the Canterbury region for the period 2007–2040.
The wood availability forecasts are based on the region’s forest resource and on forecasting assumptions described later in this report. The forecasts have been developed by incorporating the harvesting intentions of the following large-scale forest owners (those with 1000 hectares of forest or more):
- Matariki Forests;
- Blakely Pacific Limited;
- Selwyn Plantation Board Limited;
- Environment Canterbury;
- Ashburton District Council;
- Waimate District Council.
The forecasts also incorporate the views of the region’s large-scale forest owners, managers and consultants. This feedback was critical for ensuring that the forecasts represent a realistic range of future wood availability scenarios.
Five scenarios have been modelled to indicate the potential range of future wood availability. A key issue is the timing of harvesting by the small-scale forest owners. Timing will be driven by a range of factors including individual forest owners’ objectives, forest age, log prices, demand by local wood processing plants, and perceptions about future log prices and future wood supply.
The scenarios indicate that there are many different ways for the forest estate in Canterbury to be harvested. It needs to be recognised that forests are managed to maximise the benefits to the enterprises that own them. Each enterprise has its own harvest strategy based on the owners’ objectives, market conditions and the forest estate that it owns or manages. Any changes in harvesting strategies by forest owners affect the age-structures and maturities of the forests they own. These in turn feed back directly into future wood availability.
There are different levels of uncertainty associated with the wood availability from each component of the estate. The volumes forecast from the large-scale owners’ forests are subject to change because of changes in harvest intentions or changes in the resource description (areas and yields). Yet, they have greater certainty than those forecast from the small-scale owners’ estate. Not only are harvest intentions less clear for small-scale owners, their resource descriptions are also likely to be less accurate.
Contact for Enquiries
Policy Adviser
Pastoral House
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington 6140
NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
Contact this person
