Canterbury wood availability forecasts for the period 2007–2040
Overview
The Canterbury Region saw some of the earliest tree planting and plantation forest establishment in New Zealand for shelter, amenity and the commercial production of timber.
The first recorded introduction of radiata pine to New Zealand was at Mt Peel Station in South Canterbury in 1859 (Burdon and Miller, 1992), and the first known milling of radiata pine was at Leslie Hills in North Canterbury in 1893 (Simpson, 1973). New Zealand’s oldest plantation forestry company, the Selwyn Plantation Board Ltd, has roots that go back to the Canterbury Plantation Board which was formed in 1879 (Selywn Plantation Board Limited, 2007). The planting of Raincliff Forest began in 1890, and Hanmer Forest in 1902. Today there are 114 000 hectares of plantation forest in the region.
The plantation forest industry is now moving though a period of land use change on the Canterbury Plains with about 5000 hectares having been converted to pastoral agriculture or for sub-division in the last three years; another 9000 hectares across the region having been identified for conversion in coming years.
Five wood availability forecasts have been modelled for the radiata pine estate, and one for Douglas-fir. The forecasts indicate that over the next 10 years the available harvest volumes of radiata pine from all growers may remain at recent levels of about 800 000 cubic metres per year. However, within this total, the volume contributed by the large-scale forest owners may decrease from about 750 000 cubic metres per year to around 500 000 cubic metres per year. Increases in the available harvest volumes from the small-scale forest owners potentially compensate for this, but there is more uncertainty associated with both the timing of harvesting and the volumes realised from their resource than from the large-scale owners’ resource. Actual annual harvest volumes are consequently likely to vary over this ten-year period.
From about 2017 there is potential for the radiata pine harvest from all owners to increase to between 1.2 and 1.3 million cubic metres per year to at least 2035 (under scenario 4).
For Douglas-fir the forecast suggests that the available harvest volumes are also likely to remain static to 2015. Beyond 2025 there is potential for a significant increase in the harvested volumes from this resource.
The region has a modest range of wood processing industries, dominated in size by Carter Holt Harvey’s medium-density fibreboard (MDF) plant at Sefton, and in number by small to medium-scale sawmills (in a New Zealand context). A significant proportion of processed wood products is exported through the ports at Lyttelton and Timaru, while the volume of log exports has varied considerably over recent years.
The existing total wood processing capacity (based on the “usual” number of working hours per day for a mill) of the regional sawmills and the MDF plant is estimated to be about 940 000 cubic metres (roundwood equivalent) per year. This is an estimate of the sum of the individual processing plants’ roundwood input capacities. In practice the MDF plant sources about 25 percent of its fibre as wood residues and chips from sawmills; the actual demand for roundwood if all plants operated at 100 percent capacity would be about 860 000 cubic metres per year.
Some logs are processed outside the region and some are exported, which suggests that there is no potential for installing additional wood processing capacity for the next 10 years unless logs are sourced from other regions, or unless existing processors constantly operate well below capacity. Beyond the next ten years there is potential for additional investment in wood processing capacity: this will be driven by potential harvesting from the resource planted in the 1990s by a large number of small-scale forest owners. The pattern of harvesting from this resource is less certain than harvesting from the large-scale forest owners.
The future development of the plantation forest industry is uncertain because of deforestation on the Canterbury Plains, and also because regional and district planning provisions potentially restrict forest establishment in water-short catchments and aim to protect outstanding landscapes. These provisions cover extensive areas of the hill and high-country land that is generally regarded as the most suitable land in the region for plantation forestry.
Table 1: Key statistics for the Canterbury forest industry
| Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
| Stocked plantation forest area as at 1 April 2006 (ha) | 114 000 |
| Harvest – estimated roundwood removals – year ending March 2007 (m3), provisional1 | 1 010 000 |
| Area weighted average age of plantation forest as at 1 April 2006 (years)1 | 14.28 |
| Sawn timber production – year ending March 2007 (m3) | 228 000 |
| Estimated log input to sawmills – year ending March 2007 (m3) | 413 000 |
| MDF annual production capacity (m3) | 220 000 |
| Estimated wood processing capacity (m3 roundwood)2 | 940 000 |
| Log exports – year ending June 2007 (m3)3 | 307 000 |
| Sawn timber exports – year ending June 2007 (m3) | 155 000 |
| Direct employment (forestry & first stage processing) as at February 2006 (full-time equivalents) | 1 321 |
Sources
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and Carter Holt Harvey
Notes
1 Estimated roundwood removals are derived from processing outputs and log exports. They do not account for inter-regional log flows. The volume for the year ending March 2007 is unusually high due to deforestation on the Canterbury Plains
2 This is an estimate of the sum of the individual processing plants’ roundwood input capacities and does not take account of the MDF mill sourcing some fibre as chips from sawmills.
3 Log exports are unusually high due to deforestation on the Canterbury Plains.
Contact for Enquiries
Policy Adviser
Pastoral House
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington 6140
NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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