East Coast wood availability forecasts for the period 2007–2040
Concluding comments
The forecasts indicate that the availability of radiata pine from the East Coast forest estate will steadily increase over the next 12 years, despite a drop-off in the large-scale forest owners’ harvest intentions from 2011 to 2013. Between 2007 and 2013 there is an overall increase in the East Coast regional wood availability from 1.1 million cubic metres to around 2.0 million cubic metres per year. After 2013 increases in wood availability are expected to result in increased log supply with the potential for significant volume increases to around 3.4 million cubic metres per year after 2020.
Most of the potential increase in wood availability from 2013 on will come from the region’s small-scale forest growers who established forests during the 1990s. The actual timing of the harvest from these forests will depend on market conditions and the decisions of a large number of small-scale owners.
Market conditions and logistical constraints (availability of logging crews, transport capacity, and wood processing capacity) will limit how quickly the additional available wood from small-scale owners’ forests can be harvested leading up to 2020.
Some owners will be motivated to harvest early while others may decide to grow their forests for longer. This is likely to spread the harvesting of the post-1990 forest plantings out over a longer period than might be the case if the forests were harvested at rotation age. Greater harvesting during this period could have the effect of dampening log prices. On the other hand, if international log prices increased during this period of increasing wood availability, then harvesting rates would rise more quickly to meet international demand.
Depending on the rate of harvesting from the region’s post-1990 forests, wood availability is expected to decrease after 2034 leading to a drop in log volumes once the post-1990s forests have been harvested.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is currently finalising a report on the East Coast Forestry Industry, in association with the Eastland Wood Council and the major growers and processors in the region. This report will contain these wood availability forecasts along with descriptions of the region's forests, wood processing industries and infrastructure. The report will also describe the opportunities and constraints facing the forest industry on the East Coast. This report is expected to be published by June 2008.
Contact for Enquiries
Policy Adviser
Pastoral House
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington 6140
NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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