Northland wood availability forecasts for the period 2008–2040
February 2009
Concluding comments
The forecasts indicate that the availability of radiata pine from the Northland forest estate will increase over the first 10 to 12 years, despite a drop-off in the large-scale forest owners harvest intentions between 2015 and 2016. Between 2008 and 2012 there is a steady increase in the Northland regional harvest from 2.3 million cubic metres to around 3.6 million cubic metres per year. After 2012, wood availability remains fairly constant until about 2020. After 2020 increases in wood availability are expected to result in increased log supply, with the potential for significant volume increases to around 4.7 million cubic metres per year after 2023.
Most of the potential increase in wood availability from 2008 to 2012 will come from the region’s large-scale forest growers who established forests during the 1980s. From 2020 most of the increase will come from the region’s small-scale forest growers who established forests during the 1990s. The actual timing of the harvest from these forests will depend on market conditions and the decisions of a large number of small-scale owners.
Market conditions and logistical constraints (availability of logging crews, transport capacity, and wood processing capacity) will limit how quickly the additional wood availability from the region’s forests can be harvested.
Some owners will be motivated to harvest early while others may decide to grow their forests on longer. It is therefore likely that the harvesting of the post-1989 forest plantings will be spread out over a longer period than might otherwise be the case. Greater harvesting during this period could have the effect of dampening log prices. On the other hand, if domestic log prices increased during this period of increased wood availability, then harvesting rates would rise more quickly to meet local demand.
Depending on the rate of harvesting from the region’s post-1989 forests, wood availability is expected to decrease after 2034, leading to a drop in log volumes once the post-1989 forests have been harvested.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is currently finalising a report on the Northland forestry industry, in association with the major growers and processors in the region. This report will contain these wood availability forecasts along with descriptions of the region’s forests, wood processing industries and infrastructure. The report will also describe the opportunities and constraints facing the Northland forest industry.
Contact for Enquiries
Policy Adviser
Pastoral House
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington 6140
NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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