Northland wood availability forecasts for the period 2008–2040
February 2009
Overview
Five scenarios have been modelled to indicate the potential range of future wood availability from the planted production forests in the Northland region for the period 2008 to 2040.
The Northland wood supply region extends from Rodney District in the south to the Far North District at the northern tip of the North Island.
The wood availability forecasts are based on each region's forest resource and the forecasting assumptions described later in this report. The forecasts have been developed incorporating the harvesting intentions of the region's large-scale forest owners (those with 1000 hectares of forest or more):
- Taumata Plantations;
- Juken New Zealand;
- Mangakahia Joint Venture (Taumata & GFP);
- Matariki;
- Crown Forestry;
- Far North Afforestation;
- NZ Super Fund;
- Global Forest Partners (GFP);
- Taitokerau Forests;
- Holyoake Industries;
- Parengarenga Inc;
- White Cliffs Forestry.
The forecasts incorporate the views of the region's forest owners, managers and consultants to ensure they represent a realistic range of future wood availability scenarios.
A key issue is the timing of harvesting by the small-scale forest owners, which will be driven by a range of factors including individual forest owners’ objectives, forest age, log prices, demand by local wood processing plants, and perceptions about future log prices and future wood supply.
The scenarios indicate there are many different ways for the forest estate in the Northland to be harvested. Forests are managed to maximise the benefits to the enterprise that owns them. Each enterprise has its own harvest strategy based on the owners’ objectives, market conditions and the forest estate that it owns or manages. Any change in harvesting strategies by forest owners affect the age-structure and maturity of the forests it owns. This in turn feeds back directly into future wood availability.
Different levels of uncertainty are associated with the wood availability from each component of the estate. The volumes forecast from the large-scale owners’ forests, are also subject to change because of changes in harvest intentions or in the resource description (areas and yields). Yet, they have greater certainty than those forecast from the small-scale owner's estate. Not only are harvest intentions less clear for small-scale owners, the resource description is likely to be less accurate also.
Contact for Enquiries
Policy Adviser
Pastoral House
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington 6140
NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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