Southern North Island wood availability forecasts for the period 2008–2040
Wood availability forecasts for the combined Southern North Island
The combined Eastern and Western SNI forecasts are presented for scenario 3 (Figure 32), scenario 4 (Figures 33 and 34) and scenario 5 (Figure 35).
Scenario 3 – Non-declining yield (target rotation 30 years)
This scenario is based on non-declining yield and a target rotation of 30 years. Figure 32 indicates that wood availability from the SNI region as a whole has the potential to increase substantially over the next 15 years. The increase comes from the small-scale owners’ estate. According to their own figures, the harvest from large-scale owners is expected to decrease over the next 10 years before returning to current levels.
Figure 32: SNI combined wood availability under scenario 3 – split by ownership category
Scenario 4 – Split non-declining yield (target rotation 30 years)
This scenario is based on a split non-declining yield, with a target rotation age of 30 years. The combined SNI region wood availability for this scenario is similar to that of scenario 3 until 2020. Wood availability then increases to over 3.25 million cubic metres per year from 2024 before reducing to 2.4 million cubic metres per year from 2037.
Figure 33: SNI combined wood availability under scenario 4
Figure 34: SNI combined wood availability under scenario 4 – by log type
Scenario 5 – Target rotation age variations
Different wood availability profiles are generated by assuming different rotation ages. Figure 35 indicates a band of possible wood availability profiles. There is the potential for a small increase within the next 5 years. After 2015 there is the opportunity for a substantial increase as the large area planted by small-scale owners in the 1990s matures and is available for harvest.
Figure 35: SNI combined wood availability under scenario 5 – different target rotation ages
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Policy Adviser
Pastoral House
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington 6140
NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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