Southern North Island wood availability forecasts for the period 2008–2040
Concluding comments
The forecasts indicate that the potential availability of radiata pine from the SNI forest estate will increase slightly over the next few years, despite a drop-off in the large-scale forest owners’ harvest intentions between 2008 and 2013. Between 2008 and 2011 there is the potential for a gradual increase in the SNI regional harvest from 1.35 to 1.7 million cubic metres per year. After 2016 increases in wood availability are expected to result in increased log supply with the potential for significant volume increases to around 3.25 million cubic metres per year some time from 2024.
Most of the potential increase in wood availability from 2015 on will come from the region’s small-scale forest growers who established forests during the 1990s. The actual timing of the harvest from these forests will depend on market conditions and the decisions of a large number of small-scale owners.
Market conditions and logistical constraints (availability of logging crews, transport capacity, and wood processing capacity) will limit how quickly the additional wood availability from small-scale owners’ forests can be harvested leading up to 2020.
Some owners will be motivated to harvest early while others may decide to grow their forests on longer. It is therefore likely that the harvesting of the post-1990 forest plantings will be spread out over a longer period than might otherwise be the case. Greater harvesting during this period could have the effect of dampening log prices. On the other hand, if international log prices increased during this period of increasing wood availability, then harvesting rates would rise more quickly to meet international demand.
Depending on the rate of harvesting from the region’s post-1990 forests, wood availability is expected to decrease after 2034 leading to a drop in log volumes once the post-1990s forests have been harvested.
MAF is currently finalising a full report on the SNI forest industry in association with the major growers and processors in the region. This report will contain these wood availability forecasts along with descriptions of the region’s forests, wood processing industries and infrastructure. The report, expected to be published in 2009, will also describe the opportunities and constraints facing the forest industry.
Contact for Enquiries
Policy Adviser
Pastoral House
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington 6140
NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
Contact this person
