Southern North Island wood availability forecasts for the period 2008–2040
Overview
The Southern North Island (SNI) wood supply region has a well-established forestry sector, with forests spread throughout the region. Larger forests were established by the State in the Wairarapa, inland Wanganui and on the mobile sand country of the region’s West Coast. A feature of the region is the large number of small-scale forests, led by commercial forestry syndicate companies. The region’s wood processing sector is based on a combined sawmill/laminated veneer lumber (LVL) plant in the Wairarapa, and four medium-sized sawmills plus a number of small mills scattered throughout the region.
To assist with future regional forest industry planning, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) has compiled this wood availability forecast for the SNI covering the period 2008 to 2040. The forecasts have been produced in association with the region’s major forest growers and the main operators in the log trade market. The forecasts show the range of harvest volumes potentially available from the planted forest estate of both large and small-scale growers. The forecasts are supply-based, but incorporate the long-term intentions of the larger owners. When utilising these forecasts users need to recognise that the ultimate determinant of harvesting activity at any particularly point in time is the demand for logs.
For the purposes of this report, the SNI has been split into 2 sub-regions: the Western SNI and the Eastern SNI. The western SNI comprises Taranaki, the Manawatu, Horowhenua, Kapiti Coast and Wellington. The local authorities involved are: New Plymouth, Stratford, South Taranaki, Wanganui, Rangitikei, Manawatu, Horowhenua, and Kapiti Coast Districts, plus Palmerston North, Upper Hutt, Porirua, Lower Hutt and Wellington Cities.
The eastern SNI region comprises the Wairarapa and Tararua District and includes the local authorities of Tararua, Masterton, Carterton and South Wairarapa Districts.
Western Southern North Island
The forecasts indicate that the availability of radiata pine from the Western SNI forest estate has the potential to increase (from 0.75 to 1.0 million cubic metres) over the next five years. There is a reduction in the large-scale forest owners’ harvest intentions for the period 2010 to 2014 but there is an increase in potential wood availability from the small-scale owners’ estates.
After 2016 the Western SNI potential wood availability increases significantly, to around 1.75 million cubic metres from 2022.
Eastern Southern North Island
The forecasts indicate that the availability of radiata pine from the Eastern SNI forest estate will increase slightly (from 0.6 to 0.7 million cubic metres) over the next few years, despite a small decrease in the large-scale forest owners’ harvest intentions for the period 2008 to 2013.
After 2016 the Eastern SNI potential wood availability increases significantly to around 1.5 million cubic metres some time from 2024.
Combined Southern North Island region
The forecasts indicate that the availability of radiata pine from the total SNI forest estate will increase slightly over the next few years, despite a drop off in the large-scale forest owners’ harvest intentions between 2008 and 2013. Between 2008 and 2011 there is a gradual increase in the SNI regional wood availability from 1.35 to 1.7 million cubic metres per year. After 2016, increases in wood availability across the region are expected to result in increased log supply with the potential for significant volume increases to around 3.25 million cubic metres per year some time from 2024. Most of the potential increase in wood availability during this period is from the small-scale forest growers who established forests during the 1990s. The actual timing of the harvest from these forests will depend on market conditions and the decisions of a large number of small-scale owners.
While the overall forecasts indicate an increasing supply during this period, it is important to recognise that short-term fluctuations are possible, due to changes in market conditions.
Market conditions and logistical constraints (availability of logging crews, transport capacity, and wood processing capacity, combined with the difficulty of harvesting small blocks) will limit how quickly the additional wood availability from small-scale owners’ forests can be harvested leading up to 2020.
Some owners will be motivated to harvest early while others may decide to grow their forests on longer. It is therefore likely that the harvesting of the post-1990 forest plantings will be spread out over a longer period than might otherwise be the case.
In the later part of the forecast period (post 2034) the total harvest is projected to decline. This is in line with the age structure of the resource. The timing (and level) of decrease will depend on the rate at which the regions’ 1990 forests are harvested.
Other species
Radiata pine makes up 97 percent (163 000 hectares) and Douglas-fir one percent (1600 hectares) of the forest area in the SNI. Species other than radiata pine and Douglas-fir have not been modelled in this analysis. There are about 2500 hectares of other species in the region.
All forest areas are from the National Exotic Forest Description as at 1 April 2006 (MAF, 2007).
Contact for Enquiries
Policy Adviser
Pastoral House
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington 6140
NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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