- 3.1 Aim of Research
- 3.2 Background
- 3.3 Tasks
- 3.3.1 Present a brief overview of the Taupo District (using the local body boundaries):
- 3.3.2 Establish the baseline situation for sheep and beef farming in the Taupo District, using a methodology to be developed in consultation with MAF Policy:
- 3.3.3 Establish the situation for dairy farming in the Taupo District, using a methodology to be developed in consultation with MAF Policy.
- 3.3.4 Highlight salient differences between the baseline sheep and beef situation and the dairy situation. Comment on how much of the difference can be attributed to the difference in land use, and how much can be attributed to other causes.
- 3.3.5 Utilising information derived from section 3.3.2 to 3.3.4, project the impacts of the planned expansion of dairying in the Taupo District:
- 3.3.6 Identify opportunities for communities and for the Regional and District Councils to maximise the benefits and minimise the negative impacts of conversion.
- 3.3.7 Develop a frame work/methodology for a full environmental impact assessment of land use change.
- 3.3.8 Comment on issues and areas of work that require further research.
- 3.3.9 Participate in/lead discussion on the findings of the report at a half-day workshop to be organised by MAF Policy.
3.0 TERMS OF REFERENCE
The terms of reference as provided in the original MAF Policy tender document were as follows:
3.1 Aim of Research
To investigate the economic, social and environmental impacts and implications of large-scale dairy conversions in the Taupo District.
3.2 Background
This research forms part of an ongoing programme of investigation into the environmental, social and economic effects of land use change, including the sustainability and long term production implications of such change.
The expansion of large-scale dairying onto land formerly used for farming sheep and beef in the Taupo District has been the subject of recent media interest. The expansion is perceived by some commentators as having a number of potential effects including :
- an increase in farm household incomes in the district
- an increase in agricultural employment opportunities
- repopulating of rural areas where dairying becomes established
- an improvement in some rural services where dairying becomes established
- a deterioration in lake water quality
- a deterioration in the quality of roads
- higher land values and rates
It is inevitable that the expansion of large-scale dairying will bring change to the environmental, economic and social conditions in the district, which will effect:
- existing communities
- the Taupo District Council, which must provide some of the infrastructure for the district, such as roads; and which had responsibility for the control of the effects of land use and development under the RMA
- the Waikato Regional Council, which has the responsibility for soil conservation and the maintenance of water quality and quantity under the RMA
3.3 Tasks
3.3.1 Present a brief overview of the Taupo District (using the local body boundaries):
- Demographic: absolute values and trends in population size and growth rate, age structure, composition of the population (rural/urban), median income levels, other salient features.
- Employment: % unemployment, size of total workforce, % working in agriculture. Number of farm owners. Number of farm workers. Number and types of agricultural contractors. Estimate of numbers employed in agricultural servicing.
- Physical geography: climate, soils, topography, vegetative cover, major water courses and lakes, water quality, areas of high landscape and/or conservation value, fragile and threatened ecosystems.
- Land use : Number of significant1 farms (sheep and beef farms, dairy farms, other farms), area of each, area in production forestry; land use change trends. Brief description of farming systems used, typical productivities compared with the rest of New Zealand, any distinctive features of agricultural production in the district (especially those brought about because of the distinctive features of the district), any interdependencies between farming systems, and trends in sheep and beef and dairy farming profitability in the district. Project future land use change in short term (based on dairy company applicants) and likely longer-term scenarios. Provide three overlay maps indicating the current pattern of land use (dairying, sheep and beef, deer, forestry, urban and other), the land use pattern in 1991, and the projected land use for the year 2000.
- Economic activity and confidence in the region: major industries, trends in employment.
- District infrastructure: salient features relating to agriculture, including roading, upstream servicing industries (stock agents, freight firms, fertiliser supplies), processing industries (meat, wool, dairy, wood), electricity, water supplies, schools, public transport, rural retail outlets.
- Institutional framework: brief discussion of the legislative and policy environment in which sheep and beef farming and dairying are carried out, including the Regional Policy Statement, Land Transport Strategy, Pest Management Strategy, the Lake Taupo Lake Shore Reserve Scheme, the Lake Taupo Catchment Control Scheme, and the District Plan.
3.3.2 Establish the baseline situation for sheep and beef farming in the Taupo District, using a methodology to be developed in consultation with MAF Policy:
(a) Economic:
- size of farms
- typical gross and net farm incomes
- land values and rates
(b) Tenure, ownership structures and employment:
- types of tenure
- types of ownership structure
- number of people employed on farms
- number and types of contractors employed
1 Where significant is as defined by Statistics New Zealand, i.e. those farms that produce 95% of total Estimated Value of Agricultural Operations in the District.
(c) Environmental:
Establish farmer practice:
- stock classes and stocking rates
- fertiliser use - types, rates, recommended rates
- riparian management
- water demand
- any other management practices which have significant impacts on the environment
Establish how observed environmental quality is related to the farmer practices noted above:
- ground water quality and quantity
- surface water quality and quantity
- erosion - types and extent
- weed and pest problems
- other significant environmental variables
(d) Social:
- size, age and gender structure of the population
- number of schools, school rolls, access to school buses, school bus loadings
- access to social, eg medical, educational and retail services
(e) Infrastructure and servicing:
- demand for, and adequacy of, infrastructure, including roading, electricity, water and council services
- demand for, and adequacy of, servicing industries, including input suppliers, transport firms, contractors, processing industries
3.3.3 Establish the situation for dairy farming in the Taupo District, using a methodology to be developed in consultation with MAF Policy.
(a) Economic:
- size of farms
- typical gross and net farm incomes
- land values and rates
- capital influx associated with dairy farm establishment
(b) Tenure, ownership structures and employment:
- types of tenure
- types of ownership structure
- number of people employed on farms
- number and types of contractors employed
(c) Environmental:
Establish farmer practice:
- stock classes and stocking rates
- fertiliser use - types, rates, recommended rates
- riparian management
- water demand
- effluent disposal
- any other management practices which have significant impacts on the environment eg races, grazing management
Establish how observed environmental quality is related to the farmer practices noted above:
- ground water quality and quantity
- surface water quality and quantity
- erosion - types and extend
- weed and pest problems
- other significant environmental variables
(d) Social:
- size, age and gender structure of the population
- number of schools, school rolls, access to school buses, school bus loadings
- access to social e.g. medical, educational and retail services
(e) Infrastructure and servicing:
- demand for, and adequacy of, infrastructure, including roading, electricity, water and council services
- demand for, and adequacy of, servicing industries, including input suppliers, transport firms, contractors, processing industries
3.3.4 Highlight salient differences between the baseline sheep and beef situation and the dairy situation. Comment on how much of the difference can be attributed to the difference in land use, and how much can be attributed to other causes.
3.3.5 Utilising information derived from section 3.3.2 to 3.3.4, project the impacts of the planned expansion of dairying in the Taupo District:
(a) Economic:
- project changes in district wide farm gate gross and net income
- estimate land value changes and associated rating impacts on farms and the District Council
(b) Employment:
- estimate direct employment impacts of conversions over the next five years and in the long term
- estimate multiplier effects
(c) Environmental:
- project likely net effect of the projected expansion of dairying on the environment of the district
- highlight any unique mitigation measures that are likely to be required because of the particular environmental conditions in the district
(d) Social:
- project the demographic implications of the projected expansion of dairying
- project the social service implications of the projected expansion of dairying
(e) Infrastructure and servicing:
- determine the impact on district infrastructure implied by the projected expansion of dairying, including roading, electricity, water and Council services
- estimate impact on servicing industries including input suppliers, transport firms, contractors, processing industries
(f) Impacts on Iwi:
3.3.6 Identify opportunities for communities and for the Regional and District Councils to maximise the benefits and minimise the negative impacts of conversion.
3.3.7 Develop a frame work/methodology for a full environmental impact assessment of land use change.
3.3.8 Comment on issues and areas of work that require further research.
3.3.9 Participate in/lead discussion on the findings of the report at a half-day workshop to be organised by MAF Policy.
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Contact for Enquiries
Rural Affairs Coordinator
Sector Performance Policy
MAF Policy
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0675
Fax: +64 4 4 894 0745
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