Costs and benefits on near-term and long-term adaptation to climate change in New Zealand agriculture
Operational research project code: SUS 721
This proposal will seek to obtain an up-to-date analysis on the costs and benefits of adaptation to climate change (temperature increases and water availability) within the range of scenarios provides by NIWA in its latest analysis of drought risk using two time periods (2030 and 2080) at a regional level. Irrespective of the levels of global mitigation of greenhouse gases, climate change will occur and therefore serious consideration needs to be given to assessment impacts and their costs. This proposal will seek to obtain estimates of climate change and variability changes over time and the economic impacts.
It will assess the impacts on existing enterprise types and the potential of these enterprises to adapt (ie sheep, beef, dairy and horticulture and crops); the impacts of resource limitations on enterprise movement (i.e. water use and storage); and infrastructure movement (ie packing sheds etc). In the near-term, with an increase of 1OC there may be benefits of climate change. However, after that the costs are likely to outweigh the benefits.
The gap MAF is seeking to address is that of putting an economic value on agriculture in New Zealand and to changes in temperature, rainfall and climate variability associated with climate change. Some of this information is available and can be drawn upon but there has been no overall synthesis. This report will attempt to move beyond the previous work through synthesis in what has been done and building upon this using approaches suggested in IPCC Assessment Report 4 and any other relevant frameworks.
This work will be used by MAF Policy in its advice to Ministers on climate change, and will assist in providing context for our next set of commitments. It forms part of a greater emphasis needed on adaptation by Government, as identified in its recently approved work programme. It will contribute to the requirements of farmers to adapt to climate change by providing a robust information base. It will assist the Water Plan of Action in its work and any sustainable land management initiatives. It will provide information in the form of reports that will be made publicly available. It could assist our international negotiating stance regarding the impacts on the NZ economy.
Contact:
Gerald Rys
Tel: 04 894 0711
Email: Gerald.Rys@maf.govt.nz
Contact for Enquiries
Manager, Innovation Policy
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington
New Zealand
Tel:+64 4 894 0618
Fax:+64 4 894 0741
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