- Treatment of agriculture in Regional Trade agreements and their impacts for multilateral trade negotiations
- The impact on developing countries of the Uruguay Round agreement on agriculture and the agreement on the application of sanitary and phytosanitary measures
- State Trading Enterprises and the next World Trade Organisation Round: A comparative analysis focusing on trade distortion
- The impact of the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis on agriculture and forestry in New Zealand.
- Evaluation and development of wool price forecasting framework
4. Facilitating agricultural market access
This category provides information that will assist in developing and implementing policies that help to facilitate the access of New Zealand’s agricultural products, excluding horticulture, to overseas markets. Trading opportunities for agricultural products are affected by many distortions. These include not only the more direct obstructions to access such as tariffs and non-tariff measures (e.g. sanitary and technical barriers to trade, administration of tariff quotas) but also the use of export subsidies and domestic support policies to assist competing producers. Maximising agricultural market access is achieved by:
- Maintaining and improving market access opportunities.
- Reducing trade distortions.
- Ensuring that the non-tariff measures adopted by other countries are aligned with international commitments and obligations.
- Minimising potential barriers to trade that could be raised e.g. negative perceptions of New Zealand’s farming systems.
Research activities are likely to include:
- Determining effective domestic farming practices (e.g. animal welfare, land management issues) to minimise negative international perceptions and meet internationally-agreed obligations (e.g. commitments to the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Framework Convention on Climate Change).
- Analysing and modelling of scenarios related to trade liberalisation. The Uruguay Round of the WHO created a number of new mechanisms affecting agricultural trade (e.g. tariff quotas and special agricultural safeguards). The impact of these new mechanisms and the various reduction commitments made must be analysed to adequately prepare for the next round of agricultural negotiations.
- Analysing how our trading partners determine sanitary and technical standards. This information will assist New Zealand to develop strategies to attack unjustifiable trade restrictions.
The animal welfare proposals covered under this category have been separated out into the combined chapter eleven for ease of access.
| Programme Title: | Treatment of agriculture in Regional Trade agreements and their impacts for multilateral trade negotiations |
| Programme Leader: | Robert Scollay |
| Institution: | University of Auckland |
| Programme Goal: | The goal of the project is to develop an understanding of the main economic effects of the agricultural trade provisions of the principal regional trade agreements of relevance to New Zealand and to analyse both their effects on New Zealand agricultural trade and their implications for multilateral trade negotiations. |
Objective 1
| Objective Title: | Treatment of agriculture in regional trade agreements (RTA’s)and their impacts for multilateral trade negotiations |
| Research Leader: | Robert Scollay |
Description:
The research will identify, and classify according to their main economic effects, the agricultural trade provisions of the principal regional trade agreements of relevance to New Zealand, and will analyse both their effects on New Zealand agricultural trade and their implications for multilateral trade negotiations. The research will take into account observed trends in agricultural trade policy within these regional groupings and the ways in which their trade impact may be affected by concurrent developments such as the lifting of restrictions relating to the existence of foot and mouth disease in the Southern Cone of Latin America. Where relevant, the project will also consider the role of agriculture in proposals for linkages between regional agreements, for example, European Union-Mercosur, or the proposal for an FTAA encompassing all the existing regional agreements of the Western Hemisphere.
The project will focus principally on RTA’s in Europe, the Western Hemisphere (NAFTA, Mercosur (including the "4+1" extensions of Mercosur), Canada-Mexico and Canada-Chile FTA’s, Andean Pact, G3 and Caricom) and East Asia (AFTA). The Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union will be excluded from the analysis, but coverage will include the "Europe Agreements" and other association agreements between the European Union and neighbouring countries.
| Programme Title: | The impact on developing countries of the Uruguay Round agreement on agriculture and the agreement on the application of sanitary and phytosanitary measures |
| Programme Leader: | Brian Bell |
| Institution: | Nimmo Bell |
| Programme Goal: | To understand the concerns of developing countries, especially those that are net food importers, about the effects of the Uruguay Round. |
| Collaboration: | Wools of New Zealand |
Objective 1
| Objective Title: | Search and assess literature |
| Research Leader: | Brian Bell |
Description:
The aim of this objective is to search out and assess the literature on impacts of the Uruguay Round on developing countries and especially the net food importing developing countries. Sources for the review will include; FAO, IGC, IMP, OECD, UNCTAD, World Bank, WTO, economic journals, universities, other multilateral organisations and government agencies and non-government organisations.
Objective 2
| Objective Title: | Develop a framework of analysis |
| Research Leader: | Brian Bell |
Description
The aim of this objective is to organise and synthesise the content of the literature and analysis by developing a framework of analysis that allows cross referencing by different attributes (by commodity, by impact, by country) for easy access to the information. The analysis will try to separate Uruguay Round impacts from other issues such as; climate and seasonal factors, foreign exchange movements, commodity cycles and the Asian crisis.
Objective 3
| Objective Title: | Write up of the report. |
| Research Leader: | Brian Bell |
Description:
The report will be written in a way that will allow MAF to have readily accessible information required to rebut the rhetoric of food importing countries. It will include amongst other things; main conclusions, key arguments and will provide facts to back these up. The paper will be cross-referenced and indexed to allow easy access to information.
| Programme Title: | State Trading Enterprises and the next World Trade Organisation Round: A comparative analysis focusing on trade distortion |
| Programme Leader: | Dr John Yeabsley |
| Institution: | NZIER |
| Programme Goal: | To equip policy makers with a framework for examining and categorising STEs according to their impact on trade. This will assist New Zealand representatives involved in the next WTO round of |
Objective 1
| Objective Title: | Categorisation of STEs |
| Research Leader: | Dr John Yeabsley |
Description:
The researchers will categorise STEs on the basis of their impacts on trade. The implications of their structure for trade will be different depending on:
- whether through the exercise of their power they influence imports, or exports;
- their degree of power in the international and domestic market place;
- policy instruments used; and
- the observed mix between the above factors.
The potential differences in impact are alluded to in Objective 2.
Objective 2
| Objective Title: | Understanding the theoretical impacts of STEs |
| Research Leader: | Dr John Yeabsley |
Description
Under Objective 1 STEs are differentiated on the basis of their trade focus, indicators of market power, and policies used. Using this framework the researchers will review the economic literature and document the theoretical implications of the trade distortionary impacts of STEs. Greater attention will be paid to the theoretical ramifications of importing STEs.
Objective 3
| Objective Title: | Measuring the impacts of STEs |
| Research Leader: | Dr John Yeabsley |
Description
The purpose of this objective is to measure the actual impact of selected STEs against the theoretical impacts established in Objective 2. Price and cost differentials will be used as the basis on which to judge the trade distorting impacts of STEs.
| Programme Title: | The impact of the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis on agriculture and forestry in New Zealand. |
| Programme Leader: | Ms Diane Cook |
| Institution: | NZIER |
| Programme Goal: | To gain an understanding of what the impact of the Asian financial crisis will be to ensure accuracy in forecasting farmers’ returns and the consequential impacts on the wider economy in both the short-run and long-run. |
Objective 1
| Objective Title: | Short run impact of Asia on farm returns. |
| Research Leader: | Ms Diane Cook |
Description:
The researchers aim to identify the impact of the Asian financial crisis on farm returns in the short term; i.e., over the next 2 to 3 years. In particular, the likely impact of the crisis on export volumes and prices for a number of key agricultural and forestry products (identified by MAF Policy). This will be done by conducting a simple supply-demand equilibrium analysis for various products using a range of "reasonable" assumptions regarding income declines and the price elasticities of supply and demand for these products. The decision on what are reasonable assumptions will be based on historical relationships between imports and GDP, and a survey of the literature.
Objective 2
| Objective Title: | Short-run impact on macro variables in NZ. |
| Research Leader: | Ms Diane Cook |
Description:
Lower farm incomes will feed through to lower consumption, investment and imports in the rest of the economy. The researchers will assess how large these effects may be. Three methods will be considered. The first will use a simplified model of the real New Zealand economy that NZIER are currently developing. The second will utilise the investment component of MAF’s pastoral model to explore impacts on farm investment. A third and simpler option is to apply expenditure multipliers and investment accelerators.
Objective 3
| Objective Title: | Long-run impact on New Zealand economy. |
| Research Leader: | Ms Diane Cook |
Description:
The researchers will assess the impact of the Asian economic crisis on New Zealand exports of agricultural and forestry products in the long term using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. This analysis would include the impact on other New Zealand industries and total GDP.
| Programme Title: | Evaluation and development of wool price forecasting framework |
| Programme Leader: | Mr Phil Briggs |
| Institution: | NZIER |
| Programme Goal: | To provide a robust model that will improve the ability of MAF to forecast wool prices. |
Objective 1
| Objective Title: | Review of wool price models |
| Research Leader: | Mr Phil Briggs |
Description:
An in-depth review of previous attempts to forecast wool prices, both in New Zealand and overseas, will be undertaken. The focus will be on learning about the "best practice’ for forecasting wool prices. Particular emphasis will be placed on looking at the structure and performance of price models.
Objective 2
| Objective Title: | Derivation of wool price equation |
| Research Leader: | Mr Phil Briggs |
Description:
Econometric analysis will be undertaken to derive an equation to forecast wool prices in New Zealand. The model will be set up in a spreadsheet to enable MAF to undertake regular forecasts with the model.
Contact for Enquiries
Farm Monitoring Programme Manager
Monitoring and Evaluation
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0623
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
Contact this person
