1. Facilitating Market Access

1.1 FMA 100: Determination of pathways for transmission of onion smut

Programme Title: Determination of pathways for transmission of onion smut
Programme Leader: Professor Alison Stewart
Institution: Lincoln University

Summary

The goal of this programme was to establish whether mature onions, grown in onion smut infested soil, could carry sufficient inoculum in/on the bulbs to subsequently infect onion seedlings and thereby act as a pathway for disease transmission.

Onion smut, caused by the fungus Urocystis cepulae, is present in many onion growing regions of New Zealand. The fungus produces long-lived spores, which can be carried from one area to another in soil particles adhering to the roots or base of the bulb. It is this risk which is the basis of restrictions for entry of New Zealand onions to Australia. The aims of this study were to determine the incidence of smut spores carried on onions grown in smut infested land and to determine the infection threshold for onion smut.

Onion bulbs were obtained from two smut-infested sites. A sample of bulbs (80) were taken from both sites before and after grading and their spore loading determined using a spore recovery method which involved washing spores off bulbs, centrifugation and spore counting using a haemocytometer or by dilution plating. The infection threshold for onion smut was determined by applying a range of spore concentrations to a set volume of soil into which onion seeds were planted.

The spore recovery method gave an accuracy of 80-90 percent with a limit of sensitivity of 100 spores per bulb. The average spore load recovered from bulbs obtained from smut infested sites was very high (>100,000 spores per bulb) with the majority of spores concentrated in the stem base region of the bulb. The source of bulb contamination was determined to be from spores present in the soil in the immediate vicinity of the developing bulb. The threshold for infection was between 10 and 25 spores/cm3 of soil. Thus, in a field situation, a few spores germinating in the vicinity of a developing onion seedling will be sufficient to cause infection. On the basis of our results, we predict that mature onion bulbs grown in smut infested soil can carry sufficient inoculum on the bulb to subsequently infect onion seedlings and, therefore, can act as a pathway for transmission of the disease.

Background

The goal of this programme was to establish whether mature onions, grown in onion smut infested soil, could carry sufficient inoculum in/on the bulbs to subsequently infect onion seedlings and thereby act as a pathway for disease transmission.

Onion smut, caused by the fungus Urocystis cepulae, was first recorded in New Zealand in 1926 in the Marshlands area near Christchurch. There have been occasional outbreaks of the disease in the Pukekohe area since it was first found there in 1965. Because of the soilborne, long-lived nature of the spores, there is the possibility that the disease can be carried from one area to another in soil particles adhering to the roots, stem plate of the bulb or in dust carried on the surface of the bulb. It is this risk which is the basis of restrictions for entry of New Zealand onions to Australia. There is also the possibility that overseas seed producers could obtain imported New Zealand onions from the open market with the aim of producing a seed crop from then and, by doing this, introduce the disease directly into their onion growing regions. The aims of this study were to:

  • Determine the incidence of smut pores carried on onions grown in smut infested land.
  • Determine the infection threshold for onion smut.

Approach & Outcomes

A reproducible method of recovering and quantifying smut spores present on the surface of onion bulbs was developed. This involved removal of onion scales from around the base plate area of mature bulbs, washing in a mixture of water/Tween/NaOCl, multiple centrifugation (400rpm for 20 min) and resuspension of the pellet in a small volume of liquid. Spore counts were made using a haemocytometer or by dilution plating onto onion agar plates. Onion bulbs were obtained from two smut-infested sites, one treated crop and one where the crop had received a seed treatment for smut control. A sample of bulbs (80) were taken from both sites before and after grading and their spore loading determined using the method described above. The infection threshold for onion smut was determined by applying a range of spore concentrations to a set volume of soil into which onion seeds were planted. The minimum spore loading in the soil, which resulted in plant infection, was determined.

The spore recovery method gave an accuracy of 80-90 percent with a limit of sensitivity of 100 spores per bulb. The average spore load recovered from bulbs obtained from smut infested sites was very high (>100,000 spores per bulb) with the majority of spores concentrated in the stem base region of the bulb. There was no difference in spore loads recovered from bulbs before and after grading or from bulbs obtained from the different sites. This clearly indicates that the source of bulb contamination is from spores present in the soil in the immediate vicinity of the developing bulb and not from spores produced on infected plants being washed down into the stem base area through irrigation or rainfall. The threshold for infection was shown to be between 10 and 25 spores/cm3 of soil. Thus, in a field situation, a few spores germinating in the vicinity of a developing onion seedling will be sufficient to cause infection. On the basis of our results, we predict that mature onion bulbs grown in smut infested soil can carry sufficient inoculum on the bulb to subsequently infect onion seedlings and, therefore, can act as a pathway for transmission of the disease.

1.2 FMA 101: To review, research and design HACCP models acceptable to industry for plant export integrity for the various assurance types required

Programme Title: To review, research and design HACCP models acceptable to industry for plant export integrity for the various assurance types required
Programme Leader: Ann-Marie Arts
Institution: Agriculture New Zealand

Summary

There is an industry-wide need to improve the knowledge and skill level in quality system practice. There is a poor understanding of quality systems and a lack of integration into production processes.

We concluded that the development of a complete risk management system should be able to move away from endpoint inspection and a current reliance on government intervention as well as improve ownership by the industries concerned. A code of practice would facilitate the needs of regulatory authorities and industry.

We identified produce industry concern that possible HACCP was an inappropriate system for use in the produce industry. This reflects the lack of understanding of risks and the assumption that the critical control point is consumer preparation and cooking. Many risks including hazards (microbial, physical and chemical) were identified in the research and HACCP trials. A number were not known by the operators to be potential hazards. Information transfer from each stage of the process is a major issue that needs to be reviewed.

From a food safety viewpoint, more research is needed to establish acceptable/critical limits of controls, e.g. micro standards with respect to ready-to-eat produce versus that which is to be further processed.

Background

The goal of the project was to review existing certification using the sound HACCP principles and research and develop sound models that meet the needs of the wide range of exporters and the different types of MAF assurances required.

The project was initiated by MAF Regulatory Authority in response to industry feedback that existing quality assurance specifications were causing some difficulty. The objective of the project was to review, research and design user-friendly HACCP models acceptable to industry for export plant integrity.

Approach & Outcomes

The objective of the project was to review, research and design user-friendly HACCP models acceptable to industry for plant export integrity.

The project team completed process flows and HACCP models for a wide range of crops in consultation with growers.

Once completed, a generic process flow was developed alongside the generic certification process based on PEO series.

These processes identified the most appropriate output was a code of practice for exporters with a matrix of options related to individual exporters needs. The code of practice has been separated into four main areas. The export certification process and HACCP risk management programmes. Three modules follow this: Module 1 specifically related to seeds; Module 2 - Seeds; Module 3 - Food Safety including Organics.

Included in the code of practice are:

  • The amalgamation of HACCP models with the export certification process to produce a systematic process for assuring certification.
  • A generic HACCP model divided to reflect activity along the produce supply chain from grower to export.
  • A flow diagram of the export certification.
  • Product specific models were developed as process flows and noted potential risks and hazards within the identification processes, i.e. phytosanitary, grade, residues and food safety.
  • For live plants, seeds and asparagus, the critical control limits were identified. When each crop was reviewed, it was noted that the critical control limits for most crop processes were similar and a generic model was developed incorporating the common elements identified.

Publications

MAF Plants Biosecurity Code of Practice for the Export Certification of Plants and Plant Products: A risk management programme for phytosanitary and food safety based on the principles of HACCP.

1.3 FMA 102: Identification key to Tarsonemidae of New Zealand

Programme Title: Identification key to Tarsonemidae of New Zealand
Programme Leader: Dr Zhi-Qiang Zhang
Institution: Landcare Research, Auckland

Summary

This project provides a user-friendly identification key to the genera and species of the mites of Tarsonemidae in New Zealand. It enables the identification of tarsonemid mites in New Zealand to facilitate requests for rapid quarantine decisions from trading partners. The key was constructed through careful studies of over 1,500 specimens preserved on slides and was illustrated with drawings and photographs of discriminating characters. A total of 3 subfamilies, 14 genera and 57 species were included in the key, including 3 genera new to science. Distribution, diagnosis, list of specimens and illustrations were provided for each species.

Background

The goal of this project was to provide a user-friendly identification key to the genera and species of the mites in the families Tarsonemidae occurring in New Zealand.

A key is required which allows identification of tarsonemid mites in New Zealand in order to facilitate requests for rapid quarantine decisions from trading partners.

Approach & Outcomes

Existing slide-mounted specimens in NZAC, MAF Operations in Lincoln and Lynfield, and other available material, were collated, assessed and examined by light microscopy and diagnostic features discriminating genera and species were identified and illustrated by line drawings and by photography. The information was collated into an illustrated dichotomous key. Unnamed species were referred to by code. Distributional information was provided based on published records but mostly from data accompanying the specimens.

Over 600 slides containing over 1,500 specimens of New Zealand tarsonemid mites were studied. An illustrated key to 3 subfamilies, 14 genera and 57 species of the Tarsonemidae was constructed. All three subfamilies of the Tarsonemidae are represented in New Zealand. Among the 14 genera, three are new to science and five new records for New Zealand. Among the 57 species, 84 percent are unnamed. A species file is provided for each species, which includes distribution data, a brief diagnosis, a list of specimens examined and illustrations.

Publications

Zhang, Z.-Q & Martin, N.A. A new genus of Tarsoneminae (Acari: Tarsonemidae) from New Zealand. (in preparation).

Zhang, Z.-Q. & Bejakovich, D. New record of Rhyncotarsonemus (Acari: Tarsonemidae) from New Zealand with description of a new species from leaves and twigs of plum. (in preparation).

1.4 FMA 120: Use and impact of government export credit and export credit guarantees on agricultural trade

Programme Title: Use and impact of government export credit and export credit guarantees on agricultural trade
Programme Leader: Ian McIntosh
Institution: Agriculture New Zealand

Summary

Goal: To determine the extent of use of government export credit schemes in international agricultural trade and the impact of these on trade and competitiveness.

Context: To build the knowledge base about export credit schemes in preparation for the forthcoming WTO negotiations.

Methodology: Identify current use of officially supported export credit schemes by reviewing available information, describe and estimate the subsidy effect, and discuss the trade effect.

Results: Officially supported export credit schemes are widespread but the subsidies involved are not large. The effect on trade is to favour traders with access to export credit schemes, rather than expand trade.

Background

The goal of the project is to determine the extent of use of government export credit and export credit guarantees in international agricultural trade and the impact of these on trade and competitiveness.

To build the knowledge base about export credit and export credit guarantees in preparation for the forthcoming WTO negotiations.

Approach & Outcomes

A three-stage approach was adopted:

  • The current use of export credit and export credit guarantee programmes was identified. This involved reviewing the latest available information, notably a web-based search and OECD publications.The subsidy effect was measured. Relevant theoretical literature was reviewed and the results of OECD studies described.
  • The trade effect was measured. The impact of subsidies on trade was discussed and the results of recent OECD work reported.

A good summary of the current use of export credit and credit guarantee schemes was documented and referenced. The subsidy effect was explained and a distinction drawn between economic and political motives for operating export credit schemes. Techniques for measuring the subsidy effect were described, and estimates of prevailing subsidies, based on work by the OECD, reported. Data problems prevented independent analysis as only the OECD has access to data provided in confidence under the Arrangement on Guidelines for Officially Supported Export Credits. The effect on trade was discussed in the context of price changes and switching suppliers, as opposed to an overall expansion in trade (`additionality').

The use of export credit schemes is widespread, but the value of the subsidy is not great although it is increasing. The trade effect is most likely to distort, rather than expand, trade.

Publications

McIntosh, I. and Thomas, K., (2000): Use and Impact of Export Credit and Export Credit Guarantees on Agricultural Trade. Agriculture New Zealand.

1.5 FMA 130: Forest product trade barriers

Programme Title: Forest product trade barriers
Programme Leader: Mary Clarke
Institution: New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER)

Summary

The internal competitiveness of New Zealand forestry industry (measured in terms of the relative ability of the industry to attract resources from the non-tradable sector of the New Zealand economy) has improved considerably over the last fifteen years following a series of economic reforms undertaken by successive governments. Parallel with the improving internal competitiveness is the expansion in production volume and exports of all product groups.

Unlike other developed countries, New Zealand has a relatively small domestic market, which is not expected to grow considerably to absorb the additional supplies. The resource will have to be exported and in what form the resource is going to be exported will be central to the industry's future. Each form offers different returns to the industry and faces a different set of competitive forces.

Historically, New Zealand had developed a dependency on log exports to absorb its surplus supplies. This is reflected in its exceptional high trade exposure to industrial roundwood, which rose from less than 5 percent in 1984 to over 30 percent in 1997, while the average trade exposure for the global industry has been significantly lower and has remained relatively stable. In other words, the global trend is to divert an increasing proportion of local industrial roundwood production into onshore processing, while New Zealand continues to channel an increasing proportion of its roundwood harvest into log export market. This is an area, which New Zealand will have to reverse fairly smartly to enhance its overall forestry contribution to the economy.

Several impending trends, however, may alter the course of the New Zealand's industry; changing physical resource base, restructuring and consolidation, environmental concerns, and policy reforms.

Background

The goal of this project is to identify the barriers from a New Zealand perspective. By doing this, and examining their effects and the implications of their removal, we hope to inform New Zealand's forestry trade policy thinking and position on these important issues.

Success in trade is a function of several factors including cost competitiveness, and market access issues. Historically, New Zealand industries have proven that they can be an internationally competitive force in an open and deregulated business environment. With an increasing supply of products from its high quality planted forests, by implication, the New Zealand forestry industry is well positioned to capitalise on the changing trend from traditional to non-traditional sources. However, this does not appear to be happening. Constraints on market access may explain why.

Tariff barriers are just one of a large number of privileges and conditions that alter trade outcomes. Restrictions extend beyond tariff barrier and what has traditionally been regarded as non-tariff barrier, to include direct production and export subsidies, phytosanitary conditions, technical standards, and environmental restrictions. The identification of the real barriers influencing the trade of forest products is a task that in very recent times has attracted the attention and initiative of international bodies, such as APEC and the ITTO.

Approach & Outcomes

Four objectives have been identified against this programme:

  • The purpose of the first objective is to place tariff and non-tariff barriers within the broader context of key markets, opportunities, and impediments to trade in forest products. Tariff and non-tariff barriers are a subset of a range of imperfections and interventions that may restrict market access.
  • Objectives two and three focus in on the tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade in forest products, and their likely evolution in the foreseeable future.
  • The fourth objective is to explain the distortionary effects that tariff and non-tariff barriers have on trade outcomes, and whether planned reduction paths are likely to make New Zealand better or worse off.

1.6 FMA 150: Monitoring conditions on stock trucks with the aim of reducing animal suffering and stock losses

Programme Title: Monitoring conditions on stock trucks with the aim of reducing animal suffering and stock losses
Programme Leader: Dr Lindsay Matthews
Institution: AgResearch Ltd

Summary

The aim of the study was to identify environmental conditions on transporters posing a risk to animal welfare. A review of the scientific literature and monitoring of ambient temperature, humidity and ammonia levels in various pens during inter-island transport were carried out.

  • The environmental conditions (ammonia concentrations, temperature and humidity) in the lower and middle pens in both the truck and trailer transport units reached levels that would place the welfare of the animals at-risk for significant portions of the journeys.
  • Sheep were the most at-risk class of livestock as all parameters measured (ammonia, temperature and humidity) attained high levels at the same time in the same pens at various stages during transport.
  • The highest-risk stage of transportation process occurred on ferry crossings, as this is when all three measured environmental parameters were at the highest levels.

Background

The goal of the project is to identify environmental conditions on transporters that pose a risk to animal welfare. This information will be suitable for use in identifying practical methods to monitor conditions on stock trucks and in developing relevant welfare codes.

Animal welfare agencies have expressed concern about the welfare of livestock on transporters including inter-island ferry journeys. There has been no formal study of the risk to animal welfare from adverse environmental conditions on such journeys. This study aimed to identify environmental risk factors on long distance inter-island livestock transporters.

Approach & Outcomes

The information that needs to be gathered to determine the relative importance of conditions which pose a danger to livestock during transport on trucks and cargo vessels was gathered using a variety of techniques.

  • A formal analysis of the published scientific literature.
  • Use of remote monitoring devices to quantify the range of potentially adverse conditions (e.g. temperature, humidity, and ammonia concentrations) on truck during both road and inter-island ferry journeys. Faecal contamination of the vehicle and animals was also noted. Journeys that would be expected to provide a wide range of environmental conditions, and risk levels were selected.

From analysis of the data gathered in the literature reviews, interviews with enforcement agencies and monitoring of journeys we identified: the conditions that pose the greatest risk to sheep and cattle welfare; practical and cost effective techniques to monitor the environmental conditions. Liaison with key industry stakeholders would take place in informal meetings. The project leader would be responsible for informing stakeholders of the results of the research and the potential mechanisms to assist stock transporters to best protect the welfare of transported livestock.

The outcomes were:

  • A review of the scientific literature on the main environmental factors influencing animal welfare during transport, particularly long distance, was completed.
  • Factors identified as likely to have a major influence on livestock welfare included: high temperatures and humidities, noxious gases such as ammonia, journey duration, and driver skill.
  • A variety of animal factors could exacerbate any adverse environmental effects, such as, pregnancy, poor physical condition and particularly young or old animals.
  • Environmental parameters were monitored on eight journeys involving sheep, cattle and deer.
  • The environmental conditions (ammonia concentrations, temperature and humidity) in the lower and middle pens in both the truck and trailer units reached levels that would place the welfare of the animals at-risk for significant portions of the journeys.
  • Sheep were the most at-risk class of livestock as all parameters (ammonia, temperature and humidity) attained high levels at the same time in the some pens at various stages during transport.
  • The highest-risk stage of the transportation process occurred on ferry crossings, as this is when all three measured environmental parameters were at the highest levels.
  • Further research is required to identify practical means to reduce the risk to animal welfare during transportation by preventing high concentrations of ammonia and high temperatures and humidities during at-risk phases of the process and with high-risk classes of livestock.

Publications

Matthew, L.R., Tacon, J. and Jago, J. (2000): The effect of environmental conditions on the welfare of livestock - Literature review and preliminary research. Confidential Report to MAF Policy, October 2000.

1.7 FMA 151: Assessment of calf castration methods

Programme Title: Assessment of calf castration methods
Programme Leader: Professor David Mellor
Institution: Massey University

Additional work is being completed on the final report for this project and a summary is therefore unavailable for inclusion in this report. The results of this project will be included in the next Research Results report.

1.8 FMA 152: Near infrared spectrometry of faecal and blood samples for indicators of animal stress

Programme Title: Near infrared spectrometry of faecal and blood samples for indicators of animal stress
Programme Leader: Dr Lindsay Matthews
Institution: AgResearch Ltd

Summary

Near Infrared Spectroscopy calibration equations were developed for both faecal cortisol metabolites and plasma haptoglobin by using standard wet chemistry techniques and NIRS and NITS for faeces and plasma respectively. As it stands, the respective calibration equations have potential to be used as a screening tool to quantify stress in cattle but would benefit from further research to increase the reliability and robustness of the prediction equations.

The NIRS calibration equation developed for faecal samples, as it stands now, is only suitable for determining high and low levels of corticosterone. It is likely that a greater number of samples in the corticosterone concentration range between 15-30 ng/g faeces are required to develop a more robust and reliable calibration. The NITS calibration equation for plasma haptoglobin concentration as presented in this study could be used to screen cattle for haptoglobin concentrations greater than 200 g/ml, and to quantify haptoglobin increases above this level. This would identify animals in which there was a moderate to severe inflammatory or infectious process underway, and would additionally provide some insight as to the level of insult. However, the current calibration would not identify cattle with elevations in plasma haptoglobin between 0 and 200 g/ml (normal may be considered as 0 g/ml). Although haptoglobin concentrations in the lower part of this range are unlikely to be of clinical significance, it would be desirable to improve the NITS calibration below the current detectable limit of 200 g/ml. This would require further analysis using wet chemistry techniques of samples containing haptoglobin in the range of 0 to 200 g/ml, before using these samples for NITS calibration.

As part of our on going research programme we will continue to investigate the usefulness of NIRS/NITS analyses as low cost stress indicators. We propose to field test the technique with samples collected from cattle under a range of common farm management practices with perceived good and poor welfare. If and when the calibration equations are sufficiently robust the AgResearch "feedTech" laboratory service (commercial NIRS service for feed analysis) at Palmerston North, could be expanded to include indicators of animal stress and well being. Such a service could be made available for use in Quality Assurance schemes.

Background

The goal of this project is the development of rapid, low cost assays of animal stress indicators in faeces and blood using near infrared reflectance (NIR) and transmittance (NIT) spectrometry.

Approach & Outcomes

Faecal samples collected in ongoing studies to determine the potential of faecal cortisol monitoring as non-invasive measure of stress in cattle, were analysed for cortisol metabolites using radioimmunoassay, and then used to develop a NIRS calibration equation. Two NIRS calibration equations were developed using different numbers of wavelengths. The calibration is good for screening high and low values of caecal cortisol metabolites but a greater number of samples are required to develop a more robust and reliable prediction equation.

Plasma samples, which were taken as part of a previous study examining the response of cattle to castration, were analysed for haptoglobin concentration using a standard wet chemistry technique (single radial immunodiffusion), and then used to develop a NITS calibration equation for plasma haptoglobin. The NITS calibration was not straightforward because of the extreme range of plasma haptoglobin concentrations. As a result, the calibration was performed on three parts: (1) all samples included as a sample set, (2) 1 to 200 _g/ml sample set, and (3) 200 to 2000 _g/ml sample set. The best calibration has the potential to be used as a screening tool to identify cattle with haptoglobin concentrations greater than 200 _g/ml, and to quantify haptoglobin increases above this level. This would identify animals in which there was a moderate to severe inflammatory or infectious process underway, and would additionally provide some insight as to the level of insult. However, the current calibration would not identify cattle with elevations in plasma haptoglobin between 0 and 200 _g/ml. Further improvement to the detectable limit requires repeated or improved wet chemistry analysis of samples in the range of 0 to 200 _g/ml, before using these samples for further NITS calibration.

1.9 HMA 132: Assessment of the practicalities of conducting pest risk analysis for export commodities, using the risk of codling moth introduction through cherry trade as an example

Programme Title: Assessment of the practicalities of conducting pest risk analysis for export commodities, using the risk of codling moth introduction through cherry trade as an example
Programme Leader: Howard Wearing
Institution: Hort + Research Ltd

Summary

This project aimed to provide a sound scientific assessment of the risk of codling moth being introduced to an importing country via the trade in sweet cherries. This was needed because, despite poor evidence that sweet cherry is a host of codling moth, fumigation of export cherries is required before shipment to markets such as Japan.

In collaboration with U.S.A. researchers, a review was conducted of the world literature and experimental evidence concerning sweet cherry as a host of codling moth. In addition, a model was developed of the risk of codling moth being imported to an overseas country through the cherry trade. The review and model were combined in a scientific paper (see below) which provided a thorough assessment of the risk of codling moth being introduced to Japan from either U.S.A. or New Zealand.

The results show that quarantine measures against codling moth in sweet cherries are unnecessary for two reasons. There is unambiguous experimental evidence, supported by field observations, that sweet cherry is not a host of codling moth. Secondly, the risk of codling moth establishing in an overseas country such as Japan through the cherry trade has been shown to be extremely low for both U.S.A. and New Zealand cherries. For example, the probability of at least one male and one female codling moth surviving to adulthood from a consignment from New Zealand was estimated as not likely to exceed 8.5 x 10-10.

Background

The goal of this project was to provide a sound scientific case describing the risk of codling moth being present on export cherries and being introduced to an importing country through trade.

Sweet cherry is considered by Japan to be a host of codling moth and access to the Japanese market requires fumigation with methyl bromide. There are very few references to codling moth attacking sweet cherry and recent research in New Zealand and U.S.A. indicates that it is not a host of this pest.

Approach & Outcomes

Current and previous research, publications, and other data on sweet cherry as a host of codling moth were reviewed and analysed to determine the risk of this insect occurring in export cherries. These analyses provided the basis for preparing a paper, for submission to an international peer-review journal, which reviewed sweet cherry as a codling moth host and modelled the phytosanitary risk, which this poses through international trade. The paper was prepared jointly between New Zealand and U.S.A. researchers, in order that the publication could be available to MAFNZ and USDA to support any proactive initiative to use pest risk assessment in negotiations on market access. The research built on previous MAF Policy-funded work, which has demonstrated the absence of codling moth in New Zealand cherries and the rejection of cherries by ovipositing codling moths in the field.

The review, analysis, model development and paper have been completed. They clearly demonstrate that quarantine measures against codling moth in sweet cherries are unnecessary for two reasons. There is ambiguous experimental evidence, supported by field observations, that sweet cherry is not a host of codling moth. This insect consistently rejects sweet cherry in the field (non-preference), even at high population densities, and when forced to feed on the fruit, low survival and slow development combine to make completion of the life cycle highly improbable. The isolated reports of codling moth in sweet cherry are so extremely rare that they provide no technical justification for including sweet cherry on quarantine host lists for codling moth. It is likely that at least some of these isolated reports are based on misidentifications. Secondly, the risk of codling moth establishing in an overseas country such as Japan through the cherry trade has been shown to be extremely low for both U.S.A. and New Zealand cherries. The difference in risk estimates for cherries from the two countries is due to the much greater volume shipped from the U.S.A. and the winter conditions prevailing in Japan during the New Zealand cherry season. However, the risk estimates for both countries are sufficiently low that codling moth should not be considered a quarantine pest of export cherries. The extremely low risk derives primarily from the rarity of codling moth in export cherries and is further reduced by a variety of factors affecting distribution, survival, and establishment.

Publications

Wearing, C.H., Hansen, J.D., Whyte, C., Miller, C., and Brown J., (2000): The potential for spread of codling moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) via commercial sweet cherry fruit: a critical review and risk assessment. Crop Protection (submitted).

Wearing, C.H. and McLaren, G.F. (2000): Evidence that sweet cherry Prunus avium L. is not a host of codling moth, Cydia pomonella, (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Crop Protection (submitted).

1.10 HMA 133: Erwinia amylovora

Programme Title: Erwinia amylovora
Programme Leader: John Marshall
Institution: Crop & Food Research / Hort + Research

Additional work is being completed on the final report for this project and a summary is therefore unavailable for inclusion in this report. The results of this project will be included in the next Research Results report.

1.11 FMA 131: Study of India's market access barriers in wood products - trade opportunities for New Zealand

Programme Title: Study of India's market access barriers in wood products - trade opportunities for New Zealand
Programme Leader: S. V. Divvaakar
Institution: Ace Global Private Limited

Summary

Goal: The objective of the research is to study India's market access barriers in wood products, in the context of Government policy and market access regulations operating in the sector, their consistency with multilateral covenants and the implications for New Zealand's trade opportunities.

Methodology: The research has drawn on primary visits to important agencies and industry persons connected with the sector, besides several available published research and data, particularly publications of the World Bank on the tariff concessions received and given by various countries at the Uruguay Rounds, reports on Government policies and regulations; Indian Standards on wood products, official statistics published by various Government bodies and annual reports of leading companies in the sector.

Results: The regulatory environment and the growing Indian market provide business opportunities for New Zealand, which need to be exploited through a trade-cum investment strategy. Meanwhile, official bilateral measures are required to resolve technical barriers and to amend Indian Standards in harmony with relevant international standards.

Background

To study India's market access regulations that impact (impede) trade potential of wood products from New Zealand, to analyse their consistency with the provisions of various WTO agreements, and evaluate trade implications and opportunities for New Zealand.

Several regulatory changes have taken place in India since 1995, some of which concern the wood products sector. Following the Uruguay Round negotiations, India has made several market access concessions in the forestry products sector, which have trade implications for New Zealand. Industrial and foreign investment regulations too, have undergone substantial changes in recent years, including judicial intervention to arrest the denudation of forest cover through illegal felling of timber in the forest. This research has been commissioned to review the important features of Government policy and market access regulations operating in the sector, their consistency with multilateral covenants - to which India is a signatory, and their impact on imports, especially from New Zealand.

Approach & Outcomes

The research has drawn on primary visits to important agencies and industry persons connected with the sector, besides secondary research on several available published research materials, particularly the following:

  • World Bank studies on the tariff concessions received and given by various countries at the Uruguay Rounds.
  • Reports of India's Tariff Reforms Commission preceding the WTO commitments.
  • Government policies and regulations on manufacture, investment import and export, as well as technical standards published by India's Bureau of Indian Standards.
  • Annual reports of leading companies in the sector.
  • Official statistics published by various Government bodies.

Demand and market growth forecasts up to 2010 have been based on data available on principal end use sectors such as housing, furniture, paper products, etc., and corroborated by growth projections reported in international research publications such as the Asia Pacific Forest Sector Outlook Study (APFSOS), 2010. Market prices of various materials used in the report have been obtained through primary visits to Delhi's important wholesale centres for sawn timber and plywood materials.

Inadequacy in domestic demand management measures, and the development at the Uruguay Round negotiations, have led to the import liberalisation of India's wood products sector and have created opportunities for other countries to supply raw wood as well as processed / value added products. However, market preferences have seen a limited use of softwoods in India, whose tropical conditions have naturally selected and supported hardwood species.

India's industrial policy and tariff measures bias trade prospects essentially in favour of the least value-added forms, logs and pulpwood. Tariffs are structured judiciously to protect each stage of processing in the domestic industry, including sawmills, where the least value addition takes place. India also protects small and traditional enterprises by reserving several products for exclusive manufacture by small-scale enterprises having investment ceiling of Rs.10 million. These restrictions preclude the entry of large Indian- and foreign- enterprises from manufacturing several wood products, including sawn timber, furniture and other made up articles.

Following the Uruguay Round, India has removed all quantitative restrictions in the sector with the sole exception of newsprint, and has bound import tariffs on most items at the 25 percent and 40 percent levels. However, because India follows a cascading tariff calculation system with tariffs applying even on other tariffs, the resultant duties exceed India's bound rates in all the important products. However, given India's ingenious classification system, the high tariffs are unactionable under the WTO, and may be taken up only at the biennial trade review or at the next round of negotiations.

Indian technical Standards and regulations on wood products classify timber species as suitable or unsuitable for various commercial applications, based on domestic experience and laboratory tests on non-coniferous and indigenous coniferous species. The standards do not recommend pine as a suitable species in any important end use applications, which substantially influence its commercial acceptance, especially in Government procurement.

In the absence of international performance data on exotic species and in the absence of bilateral technical co-operation programmes with other countries, Indian prescriptions contradict available international evidence on New Zealand Pinus radiata and, unless amended, pose technical barriers to its use despite superior properties than Indian pines and softwood species. The resultant technical disadvantages affects trade prospects for New Zealand pine despite market access opportunities, and needs to be rectified through bilateral consultations under the Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade.

Meanwhile, India's export-related industrial policies, financial incentives, preferential trade treaties with Sri Lanka, and the Double Taxation Avoidance Treaty with New Zealand, interpreted collectively, provide interesting business opportunities for New Zealand's timber industry. The combination of incentives provides adequate commercial opportunities for New Zealand to compete in the Indian sawn wood market, by `jumping tariff barriers' and taking advantages of India's `tax holiday schemes' for export units that will remain in force till April 2009.

The regulatory environment and the growing Indian market provide business opportunities for New Zealand, which need to be exploited through a trade-cum investment strategy, and building market awareness of Pinus radiata's suitability - especially after processing, stress grading and suitable treatment - in important commercial applications to India. Meanwhile, official bilateral measures, consistent with WTO principles, are required to resolve technical barriers and to amend Indian Standards in harmony with international standards on industrial and structural grading of timbers.

Publications

Divvaakar, S.V., (2000): A Study of India's Market Access Barriers in Wood Products: Trade Opportunities for New Zealand. A Report prepared for Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.

1.12 FMA 134: Asian crisis update

Programme Title: Asian crisis update
Programme Leader: Peter Gardiner
Institution: New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER)

Summary

The objective of this research was to update NZIER's original analysis of the short-term impact of the Asian financial crisis and the 1997/98 drought on the New Zealand agricultural and forestry sector. Since the onset of the Asian financial crisis and the 1997/98 drought the world economy and the New Zealand agricultural and forestry sectors have progressed significantly. The world economy bounced back strongly in 1999 and the agricultural sector, after two consecutive droughts, was blessed with excellent growing conditions in the 1999/2000 season.

To examine the effects of the impact of the demand and supply shocks on the NZ economy we initially used a two-stage regression model to investigate the impact of the changes in supply and demand conditions on agricultural and forestry, and other exports. After the impact on NZ export sector was established we used an input-output framework to estimate the impact of the supply and demand shocks on the New Zealand economy.

This study estimated that the supply and demand shocks cost $4,057 million in lost income between June 1997 and June 1999 (this estimate is nominal, based on the type I income multiplier). Approximately $1,650 million is cost resulted from a fall in agriculture and forestry exports. However, since June 1999, the turn around in both supply and demand conditions has netted an additional $890 million in income. Of this additional income approximately $640 million was generated from the agricultural and forestry sector.

Background

The objective of this research was to update NZIER's original analysis of the short-term impact of the Asian financial crisis and the 1997/98 drought on the New Zealand agricultural and forestry sector. The original study was completed in July 1999, since then, several developments, both internationally and domestically, has occurred that has necessitated this update.

Since the onset of the Asian financial crisis and the 1997/98 drought the world economy and the New Zealand agricultural and forestry sectors have progressed significantly. The world economy bounced back strongly in 1999, and the agricultural sector, after two consecutive droughts, was blessed with excellent growing conditions in the 1999/2000 season.

Approach & Outcomes

To estimate the impact of the changes in supply and demand conditions on the New Zealand agricultural and forestry sector and the New Zealand economy June 1997 we first investigated the impact that the changes in supply and demand had on the export sector. To do this we employed a two-stage regression model to investigate the impact of the changes in supply and demand conditions on agricultural and forestry exports. Having completed the first stage we then used an input-output framework to estimate the impact of the supply and demand shocks on the New Zealand economy.

Using multiplier analysis we have estimated the supply and demand shocks cost $4,057 million in lost income between June 1997 and June 1999 (this estimate is nominal, based on the type I output multiplier). Approximately $1,650 million of this cost resulted from a fall in agricultural and forestry exports. However, since June 1999, the turnaround in both supply and demand conditions has netted an additional $890 million in income. Of this additional income approximately $640 million was generated from the agricultural and forestry sector. Specific changes in nominal exports and output are estimated as follows:

  • The 1997/98 drought was estimated to cost $168 million in exports, and $648 million in lost national income (GDP).
  • The 1998/99 drought caused an estimated $141 million in lost exports and an estimated $539 million in lost income.
  • The cost of the Asian crisis on exports and income between June 1997 and June 1999 was estimated at $1,523 million and $2,900 million respectively.
  • Since June 1999, good growing and demand conditions have helped improve exports by $446 million. This is turn has provided an estimated $890 million in additional income.

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