Physical Factors
Climate
A series of spring frost events in the mid-September to mid-November period caused serious damage and crop losses for many vineyards throughout the country. Hardest hit were Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Marlborough and parts of Wairarapa. The losses were experienced over a wider area than in 2000. Worst damage occurred to early bursting varieties, particularly Chardonnay, with many later bursting varieties escaping with little or no damage.
The frosts were more damaging due to the fact that at least one or two frosts in the worst-affected regions were advective type events, which can only be effectively controlled with water (sprinklers). The outcome of the frost problems has been an increased awareness and research into more effective frost control measures. This will lead to greater pressure on the allocation of future water resources for both irrigation and frost control in some areas.
Other districts, such as Otago, Nelson, Auckland-Northland and Waikato, experienced cold temperatures at flowering, which reduced fruit set and yield. Wet weather at harvesting also affected fruit quality and final yield from Northland to Hawke's Bay. Climatically the 2002/03 season has been one of the most difficult experienced by the grape industry in the past 10 years.
Production
The final figures for the 2003 grape intake were unavailable at time of publication, but are expected to be in the region of 68,000-70,000 tonnes. This is less than the earlier industry prediction of 90,000 tonnes immediately following the spring frosts. This is about 40% down on the 2002 vintage.
The 2002 vintage, in contrast, was more in line with industry expectations, with a final crop recorded of 118,700 tonnes, and a record for the industry.
Table 1 outlines the national grape intake for 2002 by variety. Increases in production occurred across all varieties, with Sauvignon Blanc, Chardonnay, Pinot Noir, Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon all recording tonnages of over 50% higher than in 2001. Overall, quality was also high.
Table 1: New Zealand Vintages (tonnes)
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 | |
Grape Variety |
|||||
Muller Thurgau |
10 579 |
8 941 |
6 353 |
4 231 |
4 806 |
Chardonnay |
18 169 |
17 823 |
23 593 |
17 067 |
33 883 |
Sauvignon Blanc |
15136 |
20 580 |
15 472 |
20 826 |
36 742 |
Chenin Blanc |
2 768 |
2 099 |
1 992 |
1 041 |
1 322 |
Gewürztraminer |
937 |
493 |
594 |
460 |
990 |
Riesling |
3 400 |
3 462 |
4 070 |
4 377 |
5 038 |
Muscat Varieties |
4 448 |
3 885 |
3 487 |
1 694 |
2 623 |
Semillon |
2 319 |
2 593 |
2 189 |
1 887 |
3 053 |
Reichenstenier |
1 693 |
1 407 |
1 185 |
723 |
1 184 |
Pinot Gris |
257 |
411 |
572 |
747 |
1 214 |
Other White Vinifera |
2 313 |
1 912 |
939 |
801 |
1 253 |
Cabernet Sauvignon |
4 220 |
3 723 |
3 792 |
2 782 |
4 375 |
Pinot Noir |
4 489 |
4 844 |
6 319 |
8 015 |
10 402 |
Pinotage |
887 |
444 |
868 |
487 |
863 |
Merlot |
3 430 |
3 252 |
4 090 |
2 573 |
6 502 |
Cabernet Franc |
710 |
618 |
702 |
332 |
827 |
Syrah |
203 |
192 |
257 |
244 |
397 |
Malbec |
159 |
214 |
363 |
273 |
731 |
Other Red Vinifera |
328 |
291 |
400 |
375 |
430 |
All Hybrids |
91 |
116 |
20 |
51 |
51 |
Total |
76 536 |
77 300 |
78 069 |
71 000 |
118 700 |
Industry Total* |
78 300 |
79 700 |
80 100 |
68 986 |
116 686 |
Region |
|||||
Northland |
108 |
55 |
105 |
84 |
186 |
Auckland |
869 |
1 224 |
1 363 |
614 |
1 526 |
Waikato/Bay of Plenty |
334 |
552 |
637 |
411 |
932 |
Gisborne |
23 649 |
22 133 |
21 820 |
12 936 |
26 587 |
Hawke's Bay |
22 751 |
19 472 |
23 886 |
10 887 |
25 661 |
Wellington |
804 |
607 |
1 124 |
1 457 |
2 022 |
Marlborough |
25 558 |
29 229 |
26 212 |
36 962 |
54 496 |
Nelson |
898 |
1 383 |
1 125 |
2 313 |
1 785 |
Canterbury |
960 |
1 551 |
788 |
1 779 |
1 972 |
Otago |
605 |
1 094 |
1 009 |
1 543 |
1 519 |
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Total |
76 536 |
77 300 |
78 069 |
71 000 |
118 700 |
Industry Total* |
78 300 |
79 700 |
80 100 |
68 986 |
116 686 |
Source: New Zealand Winegrowers Annual Vintage Surveys
* The data shown are the results from the New Zealand Winegrowers Annual Vintage Surveys, whereas "Industry Total" represents the tonnes crushed by the total wine industry. The difference between "Total" and "Industry Total" is data from wine companies that did not respond to the Vintage Surveys.
Expansion of plantings continues to be rapid, making wine grapes the largest fruit crop now grown in New Zealand and well ahead of kiwifruit and apples. Table 2 outlines the total producing area of each grape variety for 2002 and the estimated area increases up until 2005. It now seems reasonable to expect the vineyard area to reach 20,000 ha by 2006, making vintages of 200,000 tonnes a prospect within five years. This will represent a requirement for three times the current wine export sales to ensure supply and demand remain in balance.
Table 2: New Zealand Producing Vineyard Area (ha)
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003* |
2004* |
2005* | |
Grape Variety |
||||||
Muller Thurgau |
430 |
377 |
307 |
276 |
259 |
256 |
Chardonnay |
2 858 |
3 303 |
3 427 |
3 513 |
3 638 |
3 771 |
Sauvignon Blanc |
2 485 |
2 843 |
3 685 |
4 344 |
5 122 |
5 519 |
Chenin Blanc |
150 |
127 |
113 |
118 |
118 |
118 |
Gewürztraminer |
145 |
156 |
178 |
212 |
235 |
247 |
Riesling |
503 |
493 |
529 |
589 |
621 |
628 |
Muscat Varieties |
188 |
145 |
135 |
139 |
139 |
145 |
Semillon |
235 |
227 |
233 |
244 |
245 |
280 |
Reichenstenier |
64 |
52 |
47 |
47 |
39 |
39 |
Pinot Gris |
130 |
157 |
232 |
313 |
354 |
379 |
Cabernet Sauvignon |
671 |
744 |
745 |
766 |
773 |
779 |
Pinot Noir |
1 126 |
1 491 |
2 029 |
2 549 |
2 988 |
3 282 |
Pinotage |
75 |
81 |
87 |
95 |
109 |
111 |
Merlot |
674 |
912 |
1 077 |
1 191 |
1 363 |
1 433 |
Cabernet Franc |
121 |
148 |
170 |
182 |
198 |
202 |
Syrah |
62 |
87 |
117 |
133 |
153 |
179 |
Malbec |
69 |
101 |
116 |
146 |
163 |
169 |
Other and Unknown |
211 |
204 |
560 |
622 |
671 |
710 |
Total |
10 197 |
11 648 |
13 787 |
15 479 |
17 188 |
18 247 |
Region |
||||||
Auckland |
393 |
409 |
448 |
470 |
511 |
518 |
Waikato/Bay of Plenty |
119 |
130 |
137 |
140 |
150 |
154 |
Gisborne |
1 681 |
1 652 |
1 774 |
1 811 |
1 845 |
1 872 |
Hawke's Bay |
2 443 |
3 123 |
3 463 |
3 752 |
4 034 |
4 218 |
Wellington |
327 |
380 |
475 |
556 |
625 |
655 |
Marlborough |
4 054 |
4 561 |
5 731 |
6 677 |
7 675 |
8 217 |
Nelson |
203 |
324 |
398 |
450 |
508 |
610 |
Canterbury |
442 |
466 |
482 |
554 |
596 |
619 |
Otago |
280 |
322 |
534 |
682 |
814 |
928 |
Other and Unknown |
255 |
281 |
345 |
387 |
430 |
456 |
Total |
10 197 |
11 648 |
13 787 |
15 479 |
17 188 |
18 247 |
Source: New Zealand Winegrowers Vineyard Surveys
* Forward estimate, assumes the 2002 Vintage Survey represents 97.5% of the vineyard area.
Marlborough continues to dominate the plantings with 42% of the total producing area, and this is projected to reach 46% by 2005. This is followed by Hawke's Bay (26%) and Gisborne (13%), which are predicted to have slower growth rates through to 2005. However, their combined total areas will be over 80% of the national producing area by 2005. Central Otago is predicting the largest percentage increase in its producing area from 534 ha in 2002 to 928 ha in 2005 - a 74% increase.
White varieties accounted for 67% of the total producing area in 2002 (9,018 ha). This is expected to drop to 65% by 2005 with the continuing reduction in area of bulk white varieties such as Muller Thurgau.
By 2005 Sauvignon Blanc is expected to account for 48% of the total producing area of white varieties and 31% of New Zealand's total. Chardonnay is expected to account for 33% of the white variety producing area, representing 21% of New Zealand's total. By 2005 Riesling should have the third largest producing area for white varieties of 628 ha, or 5% of total white production. Pinot Gris will also rapidly expand from 232 ha in 2002 to 379 ha by 2005.
The total area of red varieties in 2002 was 4,424 ha or 33% of the total producing area. This is an increase of 890 ha on 2001 (up 25%). By 2005 predictions are for red varieties to make up 35% of the total vine planting. The main variety is Pinot Noir (2,029 ha in 2002), with a predicted expansion of this variety to 3,282 ha by 2005. It is further predicted that 90% of the Pinot Noir crop will be used for table wine production as opposed to sparkling.
Merlot increased to 1,077 ha in 2002 and is expected to increase to 1,433 ha by 2005. It will remain the second most important variety followed by Cabernet Sauvignon with 745 ha in 2002 and expected to grow to 779 ha by 2005. Syrah, Malbec, Pinotage and Cabernet Franc are minor varieties that are expected to grow but remain much smaller than the major three.
Marlborough's dominance of Sauvignon Blanc plantings continues, with 3,051 ha representing 83% of the national producing area of this variety. By 2005 the predictions are for further growth in Marlborough to reach 4,733 ha or 58% of Marlborough grape plantings.
Pinot Noir continues to expand in all South Island regions, particularly Central Otago. In Central Otago Pinot Noir covered 35 ha in 2002 and by 2005 will cover 686 ha, or 75%, of the region's vine plantings.
Chardonnay continues to dominate both Gisborne and Hawke's Bay plantings. By 2005 the variety is predicted to continue to dominate the plantings in both regions (55% of Gisborne plantings and 26% of Hawke's Bay plantings). However, Merlot will closely follow in Hawke's Bay and make up 24% of its vine plantings by 2005.
The trend towards grafted vines on Phylloxera resistant rootstock continues. The percentage of national vineyard area grafted on rootstock is expected to rise from 85% in 2002 to 88% by 2005. Although Phylloxera was discovered only recently in the Central Otago region, there have been no major production losses due to the pest. About 50% of Central Otago's vines are ungrafted, but this is expected to reduce to 44% by 2005.
Registered wineries now total 398 with most (369) being Category I, producing annual wine volumes not exceeding 200,000 litres.
Of the total tonnes of grapes harvested in 2002, around 58% originated from contract grape growers and 42% from winery operated vineyards - an unchanged situation from 2001. The average size of vineyard holdings remains relatively small at 11.4 ha in 2002. However, in the three major regions average vineyard sizes are larger, ranging from 12.9 ha (Gisborne) to 16.5 ha (Marlborough).
Contact for Enquiries
Farm Monitoring Programme Manager
Monitoring and Evaluation
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0623
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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