9  South Island merino

The South Island merino farm

This model represents 190 hill and high country merino properties in the South Island. It does not represent lowland merino properties or merino properties with less than 3000 stock units. More than 80 percent of revenue comes from sheep and beef, and less than 15 percent of total stock units are made up of deer. All sheep are merino.

Approximately 70 percent of merino sheep are located in the Central Otago/Mackenzie Country area and the remainder are almost exclusively in the Canterbury and Marlborough regions.

These farms range in size from 1000 to 40 000 hectares and are normally 30 minutes drive from a rural servicing centre, but are a considerable distance from the main centres.

The average size of the property is 6500 hectares. Three years previous, the average size was 6000 hectares. This reflects smaller properties changing breed of sheep and some property amalgamation occurring. Summers are hot and dry, and winters are cold with most properties experiencing winter snow falls.

Table 9.1: South Island merino model summary, 2005/06

Effective area6 500 ha Total stock units wintered9 363 su
Opening stock wintered  Breeding cows139 hd
Breeding ewes5 010 hd R1yr cattle63 hd
Replacement ewe hoggets1 500 hd R2yr cattle29 hd
Other sheep2 868 hd Other cattle3 hd

Key points

  • The 2005/06 was a difficult season climatically for farmers because of exceptionally dry conditions during the summer and autumn of 2006.
  • The model’s record-high lambing percentage of 93 percent in 2005/06 was due to very good mating weights in autumn 2005 and a mild winter with no spring storms.
  • The average store lamb price fell $19.64 (38 percent) to $31.66 per head, reflecting the dry conditions compared with moist conditions the previous autumn.
  • The 2005/06 budget result is a cash loss of $62,000. Farmers are concerned about the ongoing viability for this model. This is the third year of a significant cash loss for merino high country farms.
  • The average wool price at $6.16 per kilogram is the lowest it has been for seven years.

Table 9.2: Key parameters of the South Island merino model

  2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07f
Effective area (ha)6 0005 9006 5006 5006 500
Opening sheep stock units8 1727 9787 6548 1167 841
Opening cattle stock units1 3871 3841 1671 2461 209
Opening total stock units9 5599 3628 8219 3639 050
Stocking rate (su/ha)1.61.61.41.41.4
Ewe lambing (percent)8486909390
Average lamb price ($/hd)52.5044.5054.3136.2443.42
Average wool price ($/kg)8.379.156.836.166.89
Total wool produced (kg)35 95937 18537 28640 10136 876
Wool production (kg/ssu1)4.404.704.904.944.70
Average R2 yr steer ($/hd)843748594745755
Average cull cow ($/hd)790550473477445
Gross farm revenue ($)589 140467 058480 812496 492483 208
Cash farm surplus ($)212 80082 44475 73766 86241 576
Net trading profit ($)144 38658 267103 59421 06027 514
Disposable surplus/deficit ($)61 300– 47 182– 40 626– 62 338– 18 252

Notes
1 2004/05 figures have been revised because of changes to the sale and purchase price of lambs and the stocking rate calculation.
2 Sheep stock unit.
Symbol
f Forecast

Physical factors

The 2005/06 season contrasted with the previous wetter year by being one of the driest years since the 1960s. Most areas had a very mild winter followed by a calm spring. The combination of the mild weather conditions and above-average stock condition lead to the highest lambing percentage (93 percent) the model has recorded. Increased lamb survival over the 2005 spring contributed to the record lambing percentage.

Most areas had a dry late spring and summer and below-average rainfall until late April 2006, resulting in lower than average feed levels. A number of properties through Central Otago and the Mackenzie Basin have been feeding out since March, and some farmers in Marlborough have had cattle away grazing since Christmas.

Farmers made good quantities of supplementary feed in the 2004/05 year, some of which was carried forward into 2005/06 because of the mild winter. In 2005/06, although most properties made first cuts of supplementary feed, some areas of Central Otago did not make any supplementary feed. Winter crops on dryland are very disappointing this year, and reflect the lack of rainfall and soil moisture. Farmers with reliable irrigation have made adequate levels of supplementary feed. The cumulative effect of the poor growing season and low supplementary feed harvest in 2005/06 is farms entered the 2006 winter with low reserves of silage, hay and green feed crops.

Total stock units declined by 3 percent, or 313 stock units, during the 2005/06 year due to higher numbers of young stock being sold because of the dry autumn and low supplement reserves going into the winter. The number of lambs sold store after weaning increased, resulting in 160 (6 percent) fewer merino hoggets being wintered in 2006. Cattle numbers wintered have declined from 234 in 2005 to 220 head in 2006. Cow numbers have remained the same but more calves were sold store and less finishing cattle are being wintered. Any surplus trading stock were sold off because of the dry conditions.

Merino wether numbers continue to decline and are down 6 percent from 1500 in 2005/06 to 1410 in 2006/07. The main reduction is in the number of two-tooth wethers being kept for replacements, with the replacement rate falling from 20 percent to 15 percent. Wether numbers are expected to continue to decline in 2006/07 by a further 2 percent to 1380.

On some properties owners are grazing the easier traditional wether country with ewes, because of the better economic performance of this stock class. This trend is expected to continue while wool prices are low and the replacement cost of wether hoggets remains relatively high. The tenure review process is also contributing because it has resulted in large areas of wether country being transferred to Department of Conservation management.

Financial position of the farm

Review of 2005/06

Revenue

Gross farm revenue is $496,000 ($53.03 per stock unit) for the 2005/06 year. When adjusted for the sale of capital stock (due to the drought) the adjusted revenue is $483,000 ($51.58 per stock unit). This compares to adjusted gross farm revenue of $541,000 ($61.35 per stock unit) in the 2004/05 financial year.

The average wool price for this model decreased from $6.83 per kilogram in 2004/05 to $6.16 per kilogram in 2005/06. Wool prices were volatile throughout the season. The New Zealand Merino Company average sale price for merino wool pre-Christmas was $5.68 per kilogram, compared with the average price post-Christmas (January to May 2006) of $7.83 per kilogram. This represents an increase of 38 percent compared with the pre-Christmas period. The average Merino Company contract price across all merino wool types was $7.21 per kilogram and 40 to 50 percent of the Merino Company wool clip is now in some form of short to medium-term contract.

Sheep revenue increased from 2004/05 by $3,200 to $183,700 in 2005/06, due to more lambs being sold at weaning instead of being carried over winter. The increase in sheep sales less purchases to $173,000 (see Table 9.3) was considerably lower than the budgeted figure of $226,000 because the average lamb price decreased by $18.07 per head, from $54.31 per head in 2004/05 to $36.24 per head in 2005/06.

Store lamb prices fell $19.45 per head from $51.11 per head. Lambs sold to the works fell $11.68 per head, from $56.80 per head to $45.12 per head. There were large variations in price depending on when lambs were sold. In some cases significant discounting occurred as farmers had to sell on weak markets because of the dry conditions experienced up the east coast of the South Island. Most of these properties were selling lambs later than other areas and after the lamb schedule had fallen. Thirty-eight percent of all lambs were sold to the works, compared with 56 percent in 2004/05.

The average merino hogget price of $61.18 in 2005/06 remained at a similar level to 2004/05 because the lamb schedule remained strong through the early spring period of 2005 when the merino hoggets were finished for the spring market. This continues to be an important income stream for merino farmers.

Cattle revenue increased by $25,200 to $71,200. This reflects strong demand for calves through the autumn and more sales of store cattle because of the drought.

The average price of annual draft ewes in 2005/06 fell to $31.14 per head, a drop of 28 percent on the 2004/05 season, because the drought reduced the demand for annual draft ewes. Mating some merino ewes to a terminal sire continues to provide additional flexibility for merino farmers as their lambs are more marketable after weaning and can be sold store or kept on and finished.

Table 9.3: South Island merino cash farm revenue

 2002/03
($)
2003/04
($)
2004/05
($)
2005/06
($)
2006/07f
($)
Sheep sales less purchases162 275143 298171 390173 425163 623
Cattle sales less purchases76 70536 22842 21867 74557 009
Wool340 240274 833254 605247 022254 076
Other income9 92012 70012 6008 3008 500
Gross farm revenue589 140467 058480 812496 492483 208

Symbol
f Forecast

Expenditure

Cash farm expenditure for 2005/06 of $367,800 was an increase of $14,000 (4 percent) from 2004/05. However, the 2005/06 expenditure per stock unit of $39.28 was down from $40.11 per stock unit in 2004/05 due to the high opening stock numbers in 2005/06.

Farm working expenses in 2005/06 were 74 percent of gross farm income, which is similar to the 2004/05 year.

Labour costs were up from $49,000 in 2004/05 to $54,500 in 2005/06, an 11 percent increase. The increase occurred mainly in permanent staff wages, reflecting the higher cost in retaining quality staff. Animal health at $2.78 per stock unit was similar to the 2004/05 level in 2005/06.

The use of drench capsules has decreased and the use of flystrike prevention products has increased. Hay and silage costs were down from $34,000 in 2004/05 to $25,000 in 2005/06, a decrease of 26 percent, reflecting the reduction in supplementary feed made.

Other feed increased from $5,500 to $8,000, being mainly hay and grain purchases to increase supplements going into the winter.

Fertiliser costs decreased from $5.22 per stock unit in 2004/05 to $4.70 per stock unit (down 6 percent) in 2005/06. Farmers concentrated fertiliser application on to intensive irrigated and cultivated areas where they gained the most benefit from the applications. There is more use of high analysis fertiliser on irrigated areas. Further applications were delayed because of dry conditions and farmers being more conscious of expenditure. Re-grassing costs decreased from $1.69 per stock unit in 2004/05 to $1.50 per stock unit (down 11 percent) in 2005/06, reflecting less re-grassing occurring due to the dry conditions.

Shearing costs at $6.78 per sheep stock unit in 2005/06 remain at similar levels to 2004/05. This is the first year for three years farmers have not seen a price increase in shearing costs. Weed and pest control costs increased from $1.02 per stock unit in 2004/05 to $1.64 in 2005/06, up 60 percent. Some properties in parts of Central Otago are making significant investments in rabbit control, including night shooting and poisoning. There is also more herbicide use on intensive areas, as well as a continuation of spraying woody weeds on hill country.

Fuel costs increased by 19 percent from $14,100 in 2004/05 to $16,800 in 2005/06 (19 percent) reflecting the increasing price of fuel. Vehicle costs, excluding fuel, declined slightly by 4 percent to $13,000. Repairs and maintenance increased slightly by $1,300 to $26,000 in 2005/06. The level of improvements on properties is generally high given the significant reinvestment in property maintenance that has occurred over the last five years.

Drawings have not increased for some years, with most farmers tightening up recently to minimise cash losses. Development costs increased from $21,000 in 2004/05 to $40,000 in 2005/06 – an increase of $19,000. This reflects an increased investment in irrigation.

Net capital purchases decreased from $31,000 in 2004/05 to $20,000 in 2005/06. In previous years farmers have been replacing equipment at rates higher than depreciation levels.

Tax will increase from $11,300 in 2004/05 to $16,200 in 2005/06. This is due to a carry over of terminal tax from the previous year.
Interest costs have increased from $45,925 in 2004/05 to $56,430 in 2005/06. This was due to an increase in debt, interest rates having increased slightly and some loans coming out of fixed-rate agreements onto higher interest rates.

Net result

The net cash result in 2005/06 was a deficit of $49,800 compared with a deficit of $28,100 for 2004/05. The deficit was $84,800 lower than budgeted in 2005 when a net cash surplus of $35,000 was forecast. This large decrease from budget to actual is predominantly due to lower than budgeted sheep and wool revenue. This is the third year of cash loss for this model, causing concern for farmers about the ongoing viability of these farms.

The return on total farm capital is 0.1 percent in 2005/06, compared with 1.3 percent in 2004/05. Both are disappointingly low. These properties have high farm working expenses compared with gross farm revenue at 74 percent. When farm working expenses are combined with interest and rent it is 86 percent, a more desirable figure would be 75 percent. The margin between income and farm working expenses needs to be a lot wider for these properties to be sustainable.

Land prices continue to rise. The land price opened at $614 per stock unit and is forecast to increase to $654 per stock unit though there have been few sales in recent months. Those sales that have occurred have been for values rather than production. The ratio of land price to gross farm revenue is now above a ratio of 10:1, showing the widening gap between land price and returns.

Forecasts for 2006/07

Revenue

Gross farm revenue is budgeted to decrease from $496,000 in 2005/06 to $483,000 in 2006/07. Gross farm revenue per stock unit is expected to be $53.56 per stock unit in 2006/07, which is similar to 2005/06 stock unit revenue. However, the reduction in total farm stock units of 312 stock units between years reduces the revenue forecast.

Sheep revenue is budgeted to decrease by $9,800 (5 percent) to $173,800 in 2006/07. This is because of lower spring hogget sales due to less hoggets being wintered in 2006. The lambing percent is expected to drop to 90 percent in 2006/07, compared with 93 percent for 2005/06. Farmers’ expectations of a lower lambing percentage is because stock are generally in lighter condition than in 2005, although industry commentators consider farmers are somewhat optimistic in their expectations.

Wool revenue is forecast to increase by $7,000 to $254,000 in 2006/07. The wool price is expected to increase 12 percent to $6.89 per kilogram. Wool production is forecast to decrease slightly because of lower sheep bodyweights due to the dry conditions and less feed available in the summer and autumn of 2006. Less hoggets will be shorn so the total kilograms for sale will fall by 8 percent to 36,900 kilograms in 2006/07. Wool production per head is also forecast to fall from 4.94 kilogram per head to 4.70 kilogram per head.

Cattle revenue is budgeted to decrease by $10,730 to $60,500 in 2006/07. The main reason for this is fewer cattle to be sold. Prices are expected to decrease by $10 to $20 per head.

Other farm income in 2006/07 is expected to remain at a similar level as 2005/06.

Expenditure

Cash farm expenditure in 2006/07 is budgeted to be $373,000, an increase of $5,000 (1.4 percent) above 2005/06. This equates to $41.32 per stock unit, an increase between years of 5 percent per stock unit resulting from the forecast decrease in stock units from 2005/06 to 2006/07.

Labour costs are expected to rise by a further $3,500 to $58,000 in 2006/07, due to increased competition for quality staff. Shearing costs are forecast to increase 3 percent from $6.78 per sheep stock unit to $6.98 per sheep stock unit.

Fertiliser expenditure is budgeted to increase by 10 percent to $5.21 per stock unit in 2006/07. Less fertiliser was applied in the 2005/06 year due to the dry conditions and it is expected that additional fertiliser will be applied in the coming year. Feed costs are budgeted to be similar between years at $34,000. However, expectations are that more supplements will be made and less supplements purchased. Re-grassing costs are expected to remain similar at $1.50 per stock unit. Weed and pest control is budgeted to increase slightly by $1,100 to $16,500 in 2006/07. Farmers are still concerned about rabbit numbers and continue to invest in controlling them.

Fuel is expected to increase by 10 percent to $18,500. This reflects the pressure on fuel supplies and concern about rising costs of fuel. Spending on repairs and maintenance is expected to drop by $2,000 (5 percent) to $2.65 per stock unit.

Development expenditure is expected to decline from $40,000 in 2005/06 to $6,000 in 2006/07 as there is expected to be significantly less irrigation development undertaken in the coming year. Capital purchases in 2006/07 are forecast to decline to $10,000.

A tax refund in 2006/07 of $9,200 is forecast compared with a payment of $16,200 in 2005/06.

Net result

The net cash result is forecast to be –$7,300 compared with –$49,800 in 2005/06. The net trading profit before tax is expected to be up from $17,600 to $27,500 in 2006/07.

Figure 9.1: South Island merino profitability trends

Figure 9.1: South Island merino profitability trends

Issues and trends

Financial performance is a challenge in this farm class. Merino properties that have high wether numbers and/or sell significant numbers of store lambs are coming under the most financial pressure. There is growing concern about the high cost of production on this class of property, which leaves them exposed to reductions in income. Many farmers are aiming to run high-performance merino flocks that require higher animal health and feed costs.

Total debt has increased to $81.00 per stock unit. However, the average property has equity of $6,099,000 or 90 percent resulting from the rapid increase in land values over recent years. This does, though, make farm succession increasingly difficult.

Tenure review continues to be an area of uncertainty for high country farmers. Approximately 18 percent of the original 304 pastoral leases have received freehold title or accepted proposals. A further 46 percent are in varying stages of the tenure review process while 36 percent have not entered the process. Rents on crown pastoral leases are increasing dramatically when they come up for review but many of these have gone to appeal and not yet been implemented. Some properties that have completed tenure review are no longer paying pastoral lease rental. Consequently, the rent in the model budget remains unchanged.

The New Zealand Merino Company merged with PGG Wrightson Fine Wool business during the year and now market 90 percent of merino wool. They run a value added selling model through Melbourne and a low-cost option selling through Christchurch. One to three-year contracts remain popular with farmers, with 40 to 50 percent of the Merino Company clip contracted.

The number of merino ewes mated to a terminal sire at 15 percent has remained at similar levels to the 2004/05 year. There is some experimentation with alternative sheep breeds, particularly dual purpose sheep which have better fertility, lamb survival and growth rates.

Farmers who have invested in irrigation development on their properties have shown it to be of benefit because of the strategic value that it adds to their farming system. Irrigation allows them to move from a more traditional store stock enterprise to be able to finish lambs and hoggets. The gain in control and confidence for farmers in their farming systems has proven of great value. Irrigation is therefore seen by many as a good strategic move for high country properties that are able to do this. Water allocation and water rights continue to be difficult for farmers to progress. Many farmers are delaying irrigation developments until water allocation issues are finalised. There is significant potential for large-scale irrigation in the upper Wataki catchment given the allocation of 25 000 hectares of water provided through the Waitaki Water Allocation Board process.

Compliance issues such as occupational safety and health, public access, local district plans, biodiversity strategies, hazardous substances, employment law, water allocation and tenure review take up a considerable amount of farmers’ time and are impacting on farmers ability to run their businesses given the large amount of time required for these issues.

Public access onto high country properties is increasing at a rate that is concerning and it is becoming more difficult to manage for some high country farmers.

Income from tourism has a small impact on total income for high country properties. The majority of developments to date are small scale, low impact ventures, such as accommodation, trekking and hunting. The benefits derived from these activities are as much social as they are financial. There are a few properties that are strategically located and have invested heavily in tourism and will derive significant amounts of their income from this in the future. This trend is expected to continue slowly as farmers identify opportunities in the tourism industry.

Rabbit numbers remain low in many areas due to Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease. There are pockets developing in some areas of Central Otago where rabbit numbers have increased to a level where poisoning is now necessary.

Table 9.4: South Island merino budget

  2005/06  2006/07f 
 Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)
Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)

Revenue

      
Sheep183 6852822.63173 8832722.18
Wool247 0223830.43254 0763932.40
Cattle71 2451157.1760 509951.24
Grazing income000.00000.00
Other farm income8 30010.898 50010.94
Less     
Sheep purchases10 26021.2610 26021.31
Cattle purchases3 50012.813 50012.96
Gross farm revenue496 4927653.03483 2087453.56
Cash farm expenditure367 8005739.28372 8195741.32
Interest56 43096.0363 413107.03
Rent and/or lease5 40010.585 40010.60
Cash farm surplus66 862107.1441 57664.61
Stock value adjustment– 17 031– 3– 1.8216 35131.81
Minus depreciation32 25053.4430 41353.37
Net trading profit17 58131.8827 51443.05
Taxation16 20021.73– 9 172– 1– 1.02
Net trading profit after tax1 38100.1536 68664.07

Allocation of funds

      
Add back depreciation32 25053.4430 41353.37
Reverse stock value adjustment17 03131.82– 16 351– 3– 1.81
Drawings53 00085.6653 00085.87
Principal repayments000.00000.00
Development40 00064.276 00010.67
Capital purchases20 00032.1410 00021.11
Disposable surplus/deficit62 338106.6618 25232.02

Other cash sources

      
New borrowing000.00000.00
Off–farm income12 50021.3411 00021.22
Other cash income000.00000.00
Net cash change49 83885.327 25210.80
Assets and liabilities      
Farm, forest & building (opening)5 750 000885614.145 900 000908653.93
Plant and machinery (opening)215 0003322.96202 7503122.47
Stock valuation (opening)748 97511580.00731 94411381.13
Total farm capital6 713 9751 033717.106 834 6941 051757.53
Total debt opening675 00010472.09735 38311381.51
Equity6 038 975 929 645.016 099 311938676.02

Symbol
f Forecast

Table 9.5: South Island merino expenditure

  2005/06  2006/07f 
 Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)
Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)

Farm working expenses

      
Permanent wages52 30085.5956 00096.21
Casual wages2 20000.232 00000.22
ACC3 55010.382 91900.32
Animal health26 00042.7826 50042.93
Breeding2 30000.251 50000.17
Electricity6 70010.728 30010.92
Feed (hay and silage)25 00042.6726 00042.88
Feed (crops)000.00000.00
Feed (grazing)1 50000.1630000.03
Feed (other)8 00010.857 50010.83
Fertiliser44 00074.7047 00075.21
Lime1 70000.1830000.03
Farm forestry costs000.00000.00
Freight (not elsewhere deducted)10 50021.128 40010.93
Re-grassing costs (contractors)14 00021.5013 50021.49
Shearing costs (per ssu)55 00086.7854 70086.98
Weed and pest control15 40021.6416 50031.82
Fuel16 80031.7918 50032.04
Vehicle costs (excluding fuel)13 00021.3913 30021.47
Repairs and maintenance26 00042.7824 00042.66
Communication costs (phone and mail)3 90010.423 90010.43
Accountancy5 10010.545 30010.59
Legal and consultancy3 15000.342 60000.29
Other administration3 10000.333 50010.39
Rates8 90010.958 90010.99
Insurance8 20010.888 30010.92
Water charge20000.0220000.02
Other expenditure11 30021.2112 90021.43
Cash farm expenditure367 8005739.28372 8195741.32

Calculated ratios

      
Economic farm surplus (EFS1)4 41110.4721 32732.36
Cash farm expenditure/GFR274%77%
EFS/total farm capital0.1%0.3%
EFS less interest & lease/equity– 0.9%– 0.8%
Interest+rent+lease/GFR12.5%14.2%
EFS/GFR0.9%4.4%

Notes
1 EFS (or Earnings before interest and tax) is calculated as follows: gross farm revenue plus change in livestock values less working expenses less depreciation less wages of management (WOM). WOM are calculated as follows: $31,000 allowance for labour input plus 1% of total capital as managerial reward. An upper limit for WOM of $75,000 has been set.
2 Gross farm revenue.
Symbol
f Forecast

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Farm Monitoring Programme Manager
Monitoring and Evaluation
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0623
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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