5 Central North Island hill country sheep and beef

The Central North Island hill country sheep and beef farm

This model covers a range of hill country across the central area of the North Island. It includes the Waitomo, Ruapehu, Taupo, Wanganui, and Rangitikei districts, as well as the Taranaki region. The model represents larger-scale units running breeding ewes and cows, with the vast majority of stock sold prime, and some sold locally on the store market. The area represented generally experiences a moist summer with a long, cool winter.

Breeding performance is currently around 105 to 140 percent lambing and 85 to 95 percent calving. Prime lambs are sold at 15 to 16 kilograms carcass weight and prime steers are retained to 24 to 30 months.

Wool production is around five kilograms per sheep stock unit wintered. Bull beef production also features on many of the hill country farms represented by this model.

Table 5.1: Central North Island hill country sheep and beef model summary, 2005/06

Effective area550 ha Total stock units wintered5 681 su
Opening stock wintered  Breeding cows145 hd
Breeding ewes3 000 hd R1yr cattle142 hd
Replacement ewe hoggets850 hd R2yr cattle114 hd
Other sheep70 hd Other cattle5 hd

Key points

  • Climatically the season had a good start and finish but conditions were variable mid-season.
  • Farmers are tending to increase sheep numbers and hold cattle numbers.
  • 2005/06 cash farm revenue dropped 7 percent, due to the drop in lamb price and despite a record high lambing percentage.
  • The drop in income coupled with an 8 percent increase in farm working expenses, high tax and no reduction in capital spending resulted in a net cash loss of $39,000 for the 2005/06 year.
  • Profitability is expected to return in 2006/07 due to improved lamb prices, reduced taxation payments and reduced capital spending.

Table 5.2: Key parameters of the Central North Island hill country sheep and beef model

  2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07f
Effective area (ha)550550550550550
Opening sheep stock units3 3083 4543 4593 6483 750
Opening cattle stock units2 0372 0452 0452 0332 033
Opening total stock units5 3455 4995 5045 6815 783
Stocking rate (su/ha)9.710.010.010.310.5
Ewe lambing (%)121113122124124
Average lamb price ($/hd)55.0358.6459.6149.7052.72
Average wool price ($/kg)3.252.782.842.462.62
Total wool produced (kg)18 04418 06517 51218 38518 749
Wool production (kg/ssu1)5.55.25.15.05.0
Average R2yr steer ($/hd)736671806791787
Average cull cow ($/hd)477529559558557
Gross farm revenue ($)287 592307 362321 779301 776325 655
Cash farm surplus ($)103 367119 854130 73195 726118 988
Net trading profit ($)108 953105 700132 15587 515101 434
Disposable surplus/deficit ($)– 6 61010 00716 142– 39 11560 408

Note
1 Sheep stock unit.
Symbol
f Forecast

Physical factors

Overall climatically, the 2005/06 season started well and finished well, but with some variability in the middle. Over most of the region, a good 2005 autumn and early winter set many farms up well for the winter period. Pasture production was sufficient and overall quality was excellent following the dryer summer and early autumn period. This continued through the later winter period and into spring, where good pasture growth meant breeding ewes had a strong start to the lambing season. Mild climatic conditions through early spring resulted in a good lamb survival rate. While scanning percentages had been down on the previous year, the good survival rate saw a record high lambing percent of 124, a lift of 2 percent over the previous year’s high result. The good early spring meant that in some flocks ewes were overfed, resulting in some nutritional imbalances when the feed situation tightened later in the spring.

Climatic conditions from October through to December 2005 in the upper half of the region were varied, and a cool period through mid to late October resulted in poor pasture growth and a drop in stock feeding levels. On many farms true adlib feeding was not able to occur until late November. This had a significant impact on lamb growth rates, resulting in a one to 1.5 kilogram drop in weaning weights in many lamb flocks. It also affected the growth of many newborn calves.

A dry period then hit the region, particularly in the southern half of the region, resulting in this weight never being gained. The dry conditions and lack of quality feed also meant lamb killing out percentages were down in many cases – 2 to 3 percent on average. This difficulty in growing lambs, compounded by the drop in the schedule, meant many were held to be finished later in the season. While many farms achieved an average lamb carcass weight similar to last season, this was only achieved by delaying sales by 30 to 45 days behind the 2004/05 season. Farmers also had difficulty in finishing cattle, and again many held stock until later into the season. On many farms cattle liveweights made up significant ground over the autumn and stock were around 10 kilograms heavier heading into the 2006 winter. The dry spell broke in late March/early April, and good autumn conditions saw strong pasture growth.

Calving percent on the monitored farms lifted back to a more normal 90 percent following the drop to 83 percent in 2005. Cows were in good condition at calving and over the spring, and empty rates in breeding cows appear to have dropped. Farmers are predicting a similar 90 percent calving in the 2006/07 season. Cattle numbers have held very steady on monitored farms over the last two to three years, and there is no forecast change in cattle numbers for the 2006/07 season. Contrasted with this, many farms are slowly lifting sheep numbers, with an average 3 percent lift in breeding ewe numbers over the 2005/06 year, but these numbers are then forecast to hold steady over the upcoming 2006/07 year.

Salmonella was prevalent in most sheep flocks throughout the region, with many farmers now vaccinating for this. A number of farmers also noted a relatively high level of viral pneumonia in lambs. Many farmers also noted marginal copper levels in cattle, which can be related to the level of feeding over the spring and early summer period. A number of farmers reported some swayback in lambs, which is related to low copper levels. An increase in incidents of liver fluke in cattle, particularly in the dry areas over the summer has also been reported. Internal parasite control is a problem for all farms, with many farmers now much more aware of drench resistance problems and testing for this. The last two winters have been relatively mild, which will have assisted worm survival rates.

On the weed front, there were some good crops of thistles throughout the region, particularly in the upper half. The weed tutsan has become particularly prevalent in the northern areas, and is proving to be a very difficult weed to control, generally spreading along roadways, riverbanks and in areas not grazed by cattle.

While the autumn was wetter than average, the rainfall received was spread evenly over the period. With warm temperatures, this resulted in very good pasture growth. Farms are now very well set up for the 2006 winter and most stock are in good condition. A cold snap in early June has lowered soil temperatures to below that of previous years, which could be a forerunner of a long winter.

Table 5.3: Central North Island rainfall

 Jan
(mm)
Feb
(mm)
Mar
(mm)
Apr
(mm)
May
(mm)
Jun
(mm)
Jul
(mm)
Aug
(mm)
Sep
(mm)
Oct
(mm)
Nov
(mm)
Dec
(mm)
Total
(mm)

Taumarunui

             
Mean10195861121371461361331291411301241 470
200410641228601492571201651401841092031 932
20055511892531627312581148162362281 332
2006906865177126        

Ohakune

98100721141151321311131381271441221 459
Mean98100721141151321311131381271441221 459
2004763783043981851051591291481111531 614
2005NA771485611496NA61139199501291 068
20061335880149         

Taihape

             
Mean736368718783867579837187927
20046524426286818590906372661561 153
200550218250687148339810639128793
200681397012968        

Source
NIWA.

Financial position of the farm

Review of 2005/06

Revenue

Gross farm revenue for 2005/06 dropped 6 percent compared with 2004/05. This was largely due to the decrease in returns for lambs. Most farms represented by this model are heavily reliant on lamb income, and the significant mid-season drop in the lamb schedule had a heavy influence on revenue streams. Over the farms monitored, prime lambs averaged $52.90, while store lambs averaged $43.40. On average, farms sold 33 percent of their lambs store. Overall, average lamb price was $49.70, down $9.90 on 2004/05.

Cull ewe prices dropped back around $5.00 per head on 2004/05 values, averaging $44.60 per head. Overall, net sheep income dropped 8 percent compared with 2004/05.

Wool returns slipped significantly, averaging $2.46 per kilogram compared with $2.84 per kilogram in 2004/05, with average wool production per sheep stock unit remaining around five kilograms. On the monitored farms prices across the whole clip varied from $2.10 to $2.77 per kilogram depending on wool quality and time of sale.

Beef schedules also decreased slightly due to decreasing overseas prices, but recovered in the latter part of the season. Overall, prices achieved for cattle this year have been very similar to those achieved last year. Culled cows averaged $558 compared with $559 in 2004/05, and rising three-year steers average $1,005 compared with $1,065 in 2004/05. Weaner cattle prices have remained high, consistently averaging $2.20 to $2.40 per kilogram liveweight, which has been positive for the breeding sector but has resulted in a tightening of trading margins.

Table 5.4: Central North Island hill country sheep and beef cash farm revenue

  2002/03
($)
2003/04
($)
2004/05
($)
2005/06
($)
2006/07f
($)
Sheep sales less purchases154 788165 503170 352155 995175 733
Cattle sales less purchases74 17991 710101 767100 597100 711
Wool58 62550 14949 66045 18549 211
Grazing income00000
Other income00000
Gross farm revenue287 592307 362321 779301 776325 655

Symbol
f Forecast

Expenditure

Overall, farm working expenditure for 2005/06 is up 8 percent compared to 2004/05, due to increased spending and costs in many areas.

Animal health costs lifted almost 10 percent on a per stock unit basis, mostly a reflection of increased prices for drenches and vaccines. On the monitored farms, the average animal health spending was $3.05 per stock unit, ranging from $1.24 through to $4.51 per stock unit.

Fertiliser expenditure also lifted slightly, mainly a reflection of increased fertiliser prices. The model is still applying 29 kilograms of phosphorous per hectare and 27 kilograms of sulphur per hectare, which is slightly above maintenance requirements. It is also applying some nitrogen in the form of di-ammonium phosphate over a portion of the property.

Shearing costs lifted a total of 17 percent, largely due to the increase in shearing wage rates. Spending on repairs and maintenance dropped back slightly, following several years of high expenditure in this area. Interest costs also climbed slightly due to increasing interest rates.

The model paid significantly more tax this season, a direct reflection of a good income year in 2004/05. Many properties paid more tax than was necessary, which will reduce tax payments in 2006/07. Most did not take the opportunity to reassess provisional taxation to reduce this over-payment.

Net result

Overall, the disposable result from the farm business has deteriorated significantly to a deficit of $39,000 compared to a surplus of $16,000 in 2004/05. This is a direct result of a combined drop in lamb returns, increase in cash farm expenditure and over-payment of taxation. While this is a significant change from 2004/05, the model has been reasonably profitable over the last five years, and most farmers will either carry the loss as increased overdraft into the new year, or convert some of this to term debt.

Forecasts for 2006/07

Revenue

Gross farm revenue is forecast to lift by 8 percent compared with 2005/06, mainly driven by an expected better return in lamb prices.

Returns from sheep are forecast to lift 13 percent, a combination of an expected lift in lamb prices and an expectation that a greater proportion (75 percent) will be sold prime. The overall average price budgeted for lamb is $52.70 per head, up $3.00 on 2005/06. Many farmers are budgeting relatively conservatively on lamb prices, at around $55.00 per head for a prime lamb, up $2.00 per head on 2005/06, but are quietly expecting prices to be up to $5.00 per head better.

Farmers expect a similar lambing result to 2005/06, of around 124 percent. Many farmers recognise the extremely good weather over the previous lambing period led to excellent lamb survival and that this will not always be the case. While there has been further gain in flock liveweight going into the 2006 mating period, a more normal spring may counter the advantage of this.

Wool is also expected to make some recovery, with farmers budgeting for an average return of $2.62 per kilogram, up 6.5 percent compared with 2005/06. This lift in price is expected due mainly to a decline in the value of the New Zealand dollar.

Farmers are budgeting for very similar returns from cattle as those achieved in the 2005/06 season. Rising three-year steers are budgeted at $990 per head compared with $1,005 per head in 2005/06. Returns from rising two-year bulls are expected to lift by $20 to $30 per head.

Expenditure

Farm working expenditure is budgeted to be down slightly compared with 2005/06. While some increases have been allowed for in areas such as animal health, shearing, and fuel, expenditure in other areas such as fertiliser, and repairs and maintenance have been reduced. With fertiliser, farmers have budgeted for increases in prices, and have correspondingly reduced the total amount of fertiliser applied. The model has reduced nutrient inputs down to 26 kilograms of phosphorous per hectare and 24 kilograms of sulphur per hectare. Nitrogen application has also been trimmed back slightly.

Interest costs have risen, mainly due to the high level of overdraft carried into the season.

Taxation reduced significantly, with the model actually achieving a small refund, on the back of the overpayment of taxation in 2005/06. Farmers have also scaled back expectations on any capital purchases, although this is likely to be reviewed later in the season.

Net result

The model is anticipating a healthy disposable surplus of around $60,000. This is mainly due to a reduction of tax of $50,000, but also farmers are budgeting quite conservatively because of their experiences over the 2005/06 season. Many farmers will look to review their budget in late summer or early autumn, and if this surplus is likely to be achieved they will revise their expenditure accordingly. The surplus could be used to cover the increased overdraft, increased on-farm spending, or off-farm investment.

Figure 5.1: Central North Island hill country sheep and beef profitability trends

Figure 5.1: Central North Island hill country sheep and beef profitability trends

Issues and trends

Facing rising costs in many areas, farmers are looking at ways to economise or hold their expenditure. With fertiliser being the biggest expenditure item, there is more of a focus on making efficient use of the nutrients applied. Following several years of above maintenance inputs, there is a distinct trend to drop fertiliser applications back to an assessed maintenance level. Nitrogen is also becoming a more discretionary item for many who have been applying small amounts previously. Farmers are looking to ensure they get a direct return from any applications. There is also some interest in applications of potash by some farmers.

While composite sheep breeds still remain popular, there appears to be a drift out of using Finnish Landrace and East Friesian breeds and a drift back to Romney or other traditional breeds. In noting this, there is a growing demand for high performing composite ewe hoggets. Now that fertility levels have lifted, farmers are looking more towards lamb survival and lamb growth rates and in some areas are looking to introduce some Perendale genetics.

Given the low returns from wool and high cost of shearing, there is a trend away from shearing twice a year towards eight-month shearing, or even once-a-year, although there is a concern at the likely impacts on wool quality, for example cotts and yellowing from once-a-year shearing. There appears to be less interest in re-grassing and summer cropping, although there is still a lot of winter cropping carried out for development and re-grassing purposes.

A number of the larger towns in the region report increasing demand for subdivision into lifestyle blocks and for housing in the urban areas. Overall this is seen as a positive factor, given that many of the districts are facing population declines.

Farmers report possum numbers building up in a number of areas, but note that the bovine tuberculosis (Tb) incidents remain low. Rabbit numbers also appear to be building up in some areas, but this is very variable.

People in the servicing industry have noted that a lot of farmers are more stressed than in previous years. This is a result of having to work harder, and in many cases of operating a more complicated management system. The intensification and complication of farming systems is also compounded by trying to get labour to assist. There is an increasing level of “red tape”, for example Tb movement cards, Resource Management Act consents, and complying with holiday legislation with respect to labour. In many incidences this latter factor has meant the farmers giving the employee the statutory days off and doing the work themselves.

There is increasing interest in equity sharing as a means for younger people to get into farming, or for managers to share in the profitability of the farming operation. The King Country has the highest level of sheep and beef farms involved in equity sharing.

Availability of labour remains an issue at the on-farm level. Contractors such as shearers and fencers continue to be in short supply, as do shepherds with good dogs.

While many farmers are interested in environmental issues, the concept of sustainable land management as promulgated by regional councils is seen by many as more of a regulatory threat. Many are interested in the concept of farm plans, but note that the regional councils do not have the resources to service demand. Some farmers note that on the erodible sedimentary hill country there is a need for “tools” such as plants that stabilise the soil but are palatable to stock. They feel that the current high land prices are forcing intensification of farming systems and that these systems are not sustainable in the long term.

Land prices remain relatively stable, although there has been some indication of softening over the past season. With the expected improvement in profitability occurring in 2006/07, many feel that it is unlikely that land prices will drop.

Table 5.5: Central North Island hill country sheep and beef budget

  2005/06  2006/07f 
 Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)
Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)

Revenue

      
Sheep162 51129544.55183 00533348.80
Wool45 1858212.3949 2118913.12
Cattle113 93220756.04114 48620856.31
Grazing income000.00000.00
Other farm income000.00000.00
Less      
Sheep purchases6 516121.797 272131.94
Cattle purchases13 335246.5613 775256.78
Gross farm revenue301 77654953.12325 65559256.31
Cash farm expenditure179 56032631.61177 31732230.66
Interest26 490484.6629 350535.08
Rent and/or leases000.00000.00
Cash farm surplus95 72617416.85118 98821620.58
Stock value adjustment8 414151.481 62730.28
Minus depreciation16 625302.9319 180353.32
Net trading profit87 51515915.41101 43418417.54
Taxation49 440908.70– 394– 1– 0.07
Net trading profit after tax38 075696.70101 82818517.61

Allocation of funds

      
Add back depreciation16 625302.9319 180353.32
Reverse stock value adjustment– 8 414– 15– 1.48– 1 627– 3– 0.28
Drawings42 036767.4042 214777.30
Principal repayments9 351171.659 170171.59
Development4 31780.764 97390.86
Capital purchases29 697545.232 61650.45
Disposable surplus/deficit– 39 115– 71– 6.8960 40811010.45

Other cash sources

      
New borrowing000.00000.00
Off-farm income000.00000.00
Other cash income000.00000.00
Net cash change– 39 115– 71– 6.8960 40811010.45

Assets and liabilities

      
Farm, forest and building (opening)3 290 0005 982579.173 290 0005 982568.93
Plant and machinery (opening)79 14614413.9396 97117616.77
Stock valuation (opening)554 2311 00897.57562 6451 02397.30
Total farm capital3 923 3777 133690.673 949 6167 181683.00
Total debt opening300 00054552.81320 00058255.34
Equity3 623 3776 588637.863 629 6166 599627.66

Symbol
f Forecast

Table 5.6: Central North Island hill country sheep and beef expenditure

  2005/06  2006/07f 
 Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)
Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)

Farm working expenses

      
Permanent wages000.00000.00
Casual wages9 373171.658 616161.49
ACC6 018111.064 81190.83
Animal health17 326323.0518 042333.12
Breeding1 93140.341 96640.34
Electricity2 72750.483 06560.53
Feed (hay and silage)3 12460.552 77650.48
Feed (crops)000.00000.00
Feed (grazing)34110.06000.00
Feed (other)2 10240.372 08240.36
Fertiliser46 250848.1444 710817.73
Lime000.00000.00
Farm forestry costs000.00000.00
Freight (not elsewhere deducted)3 80670.673 87470.67
Re-grassing costs (contractors)3 46560.612 89150.50
Shearing costs (per ssu)26 520487.2727 350507.29
Weed and pest control6 305111.116 130111.06
Fuel6 021111.067 171131.24
Vehicle costs (excluding fuel)5 453100.965 320100.92
Repairs and maintenance18 007333.1717 175312.97
Communication costs (phone and mail)1 93140.341 90830.33
Accountancy2 89750.512 77650.48
Legal and consultancy1 87530.331 85030.32
Other administration1 19320.211 21420.21
Rates7 669141.358 443151.46
Insurance3 46560.613 58570.62
Water charges000.00000.00
Other expenditure1 76130.311 56130.27
Cash farm expenditure179 56032631.61177 31732230.66

Calculated ratios

      
Economic farm surplus (EFS1)43 771807.7160 28811010.43
Cash farm expenditure/GFR2 60%54%
EFS/total farm capital1.1%1.5%
EFS less interest & lease/equity0.5%0.9%
Interest+rent+lease/GFR8.8%9.0%
EFS/GFR14.5%18.5%

Notes
1 EFS (or Earnings before interest and tax) is calculated as follows: gross farm revenue plus change in livestock values less working expenses less depreciation less wages of management (WOM). WOM are calculated as follows: $31,000 allowance for labour input plus 1% of total capital as managerial reward. An upper limit for WOM of $75,000 has been set.
2 Gross farm revenue.
Symbol
f Forecast

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Contact for Enquiries

Farm Monitoring Programme Manager
Monitoring and Evaluation
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0623
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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