7  Hawkes Bay/Wairarapa hill country sheep and beef

The Hawkes Bay/Wairarapa hill country sheep and beef farm

This model represents hill country properties from Wairoa south to Cape Palliser. Most farms represented by the model have a sheep policy running a breeding flock and rearing replacements.

Lamb sales are a mix of store and prime, depending on the season, with most being sold directly to meat processing companies. Approximately half the properties run a breeding cow herd and the majority carry bulls or steers as part of an increasing trend to diversification and to assist with pasture and parasite management.

The model has steadily increased in size, reflecting the trend towards amalgamation of farming properties.

Table 7.1: Hawkes Bay/Wairarapa hill country sheep and beef model summary, 2005/06

Effective area557 ha Total stock units wintered15 754 su
Opening stock wintered  Breeding cows81 hd
Breeding ewes2 765 hd R1yr cattle141 hd
Replacement ewe hoggets970 hd R2yr cattle135 hd
Other sheep581 hd Other cattle8 hd

Note
1 Includes opening grazing stock units.

Key points

  • Pasture production during the 2005/06 season has been variable but generally favourable for most farmers.
  • A rapid decline in lamb schedules during summer of 2005/06 contributed to reducing net trading profit by 41 percent.
  • Fertiliser expenditure decreased by 2 percent in 2005/06 compared with 2004/05 as farmers reduced nitrogen fertiliser use and reduced macro-nutrient inputs to near maintenance levels.
  • Farm profitability (EFS) is expected to improve by 14 percent in 2006/07 as farm gate prices recover and production improves.
  • Farmers are concerned about their ongoing viability with the widening gap between poor farm profitability and increasing land values.

Table 7.2: Key parameters of the Hawkes Bay/Wairarapa hill country sheep and beef model

  2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07f
Effective area (ha)504511526557566
Opening sheep stock units3 4643 3163 5593 8514 034
Opening cattle stock units1 8921 7861 8741 9032 003
Opening total stock units5 4745 1025 4335 7546 037
Stocking rate (su/ha)10.910.010.310.310.7
Ewe lambing (%)133126137134134
Average lamb price ($/hd)59.0062.5662.6953.6856.49
Average wool price ($/kg)3.092.752.682.392.58
Total wool produced (kg)18 78318 13220 47621 51220 926
Wool production (kg/ssu1)5.404.605.755.595.19
Average R2yr steer ($/hd)745791484480
Average cull cow ($/hd)615645650670675
Gross farm revenue ($)392 796366 430393 472365 521400 105
Cash farm surplus ($)114 120101 63084 09042 78660 666
Net trading profit ($)100 93490 140105 67762 08162 313
Disposable surplus/deficit ($)– 20 675– 2 458– 100 162– 142 727– 39 584

Note
1 Sheep stock unit.
Symbol
f Forecast

Physical factors

The 2005/06 season started on a good note. Strong autumn rains on the 18 March 2005 combined with mild weather patterns lead to excellent pasture growth in autumn 2005, higher pasture covers than normal and enabled farms to carry more stock than normal into winter 2005. Conditions turned wet during July 2005, reducing pasture utilisation. However, climatic conditions remained favourable for pasture growth with soil temperatures higher than normal. Scanning percentages for the 2005 mating were 10 to 20 percent ahead of the previous year setting farmers up for a high lambing percent.

Conditions in August and September remained settled with fine calm days. This should have provided excellent conditions for good lamb survival in mid-season lambing flocks, but a high incidence of bearings in ewes carrying multiple pregnancies resulted in increased wastage. Wastage rates of 30 percent were recorded compared with the typical 22 percent.

In late September/October, southerly weather patterns arrived, having a major impact on the survival of later lambing flocks. In some cases wastage rates were over 35 percent of potential lambs. Hogget lambing results continue to improve, with a weaning percentage of 65 in 2005/06 compared with 58 percent in 2004/05. This is because fewer but better quality ewe hoggets are being mated, resulting in a 9 percent increase in the number of lambs weaned from hoggets.

From November to March a dull weather pattern continued. Lamb growth rates were poor and stock failed to achieve the expected liveweight gain targets. This was partially attributed to the impact of clover root weevil reducing clover growth in the pasture sward. Some farmers also reported disappointing yields from their early lamb drafts.

Heavy rain over the Christmas period created an explosion in pasture growth. Many farmers struggled to control pasture covers and feed quality deteriorated. These higher cover levels coincided with weaker market prices so farmers retained stock and carried them to heavier weights in order to maintain average per head prices.

During February, conditions repeated the previous year’s pattern with dry weather resulting in rapidly deteriorating pasture covers. By mid-February farmers in dryer areas were considering or beginning de-stocking in an effort to protect pasture covers. On 21 March 2006 major rain arrived and proved a drought breaker. Conditions on farm remained challenging as rank feed rotted and fungal toxin issues emerged.

Since late March 2006 conditions have been favourable. Pasture covers are at similar levels to autumn 2005 and stock numbers are currently up on 2005. Although the lambing percentage in 2006 is forecast to be the same as in 2005 at 134 percent, early pregnancy scanning results are 10 to 30 percent behind 2005. Scanning results are anticipated to be lower for the later lambing ewes due to lower tupping weights. Survival is expected to be better than 2005, back at typical levels.

Financial position of the farm

Review of 2005/06

Revenue

Gross farm revenue in 2005/06 decreased by 7 percent compared with 2004/05, to $365,000 or $656 per hectare. This decline was despite a 6 percent increase in average farm size and was due to a reduction in the gross revenues from both sheep and cattle.

Sheep revenue was lower due to lower prices. Lamb schedules eased from $4.55 per kilogram carcass weight in November to $3.00 per kilogram carcass weight in March. This resulted in the average lamb price falling from $62.70 per head in 2004/05 to $53.70 per head in 2005/06. This was compounded by a 3 percent lower lambing percentage than 2004/05 and weak store lamb prices at the key store lamb marketing times.

Weak beef prices and poor lamb prices meant that there were only 180 cattle sold in the 2005/06 year compared to 220 cattle in the 2004/05. This occurred as farmers attempted to take advantage of available feed to increase cattle sale weights. Intense competition for the available store stock has meant that farmers have had to pay more for replacements, which has reduced trading margins. They have responded by buying smaller numbers of younger cattle.

Wool revenue decreased by 6 percent to $51,000 in 2005/06 compared with 2004/05. This was despite a higher volume of wool sold (up 1036 kilograms) as a high exchange rate took its toll on the average wool price ($2.40 per kilogram in 2005/06 compared with $2.70 per kilogram in 2004/05).

Table 7.3: Hawkes Bay/Wairarapa hill country sheep and beef cash farm revenue

  2002/03
($)
2003/04
($)
2004/05
($)
2005/06
($)
2006/07f
($)
Sheep sales less purchases 203 668 190 394 201 791 201 501 223 047
Cattle sales less purchases109 645103 320116 99085 57697 353
Wool58 12849 90954 80251 50554 043
Grazing income8 1368 1928 12214 54714 650
Other income13 21914 61511 76812 39211 012
Gross farm revenue392 796366 430393 473365 521400 105

Symbol
f Forecast

Expenditure

Cash farm expenditure eased in 2005/06, down 3 percent to $243,000 or $42.28 per stock unit compared with 2004/05.

The key reason for the decrease in expenditure is an end to deferred maintenance and greater focus on reducing costs. Key areas of reduced expenditure were fertiliser, repairs and maintenance, and feed costs. These reductions were partially offset by increases in vehicle running costs, shearing expenses, and weed and pest control.

Fertiliser expenditure decreased by 25 percent. This decline was mainly due to a reduction in the use of nitrogen fertilisers and reducing macronutrient inputs to near maintenance levels. Lime use was increased as farmers looked to resolve other soil chemistry issues after dealing with the macronutrients.

In 2005/06, expenditure on repairs and maintenance decreased by 23 percent. After a number of years of sustained investment in catching up with deferred maintenance, most farms are getting to the situation where the level of ongoing maintenance is decreasing.

Feed costs have reduced due to a favourable 2005 winter that reduced the need for winter supplement, and higher stocking rates resulting in better control of spring pasture surpluses. Shearing costs increased by 20 percent to $27,000 in 2005/06, compared with 2004/05. This is due to more sheep being shorn as farm size increases and to higher shearing rates. Vehicle running and fuel costs have increased by 18 percent. This is almost entirely due to the higher cost of fuel as a result of higher world oil crude prices and a weaker exchange rate in the later part of the year. Weed and pest control increased in 2005/06 by 48 percent as a result of a higher incidence of thistles and insect pests after the dry period in late summer 2005.

Net result

The cash farm surplus declined by almost 50 percent in 2005/06 to $43,000 compared with $84,000 in 2004/05, while the net trading profit dropped by 41 percent to $62,000. The cash farm surplus declined due to a weaker gross farm revenue and higher debt servicing costs (interest and rent).

The net cash change has eroded to a deficit of $53,000. This is primarily due to high drawings (which include some off-farm investment), significant principal repayments, development and capital purchases. The capital purchases in this model include the purchase of new land, which is primarily funded through new borrowings.

The net trading profit flows through to an economic farm surplus of $67,000 or $120 per hectare, a 29 percent reduction on 2004/05. Return on capital has declined to 1.5 percent from 2.3 percent in 2004/05 as returns decline and land prices increase, pushing up the total capital employed.

Forecasts for 2006/07

Revenue

Gross farm revenue is forecast to increase 9.0 percent to $400,000 in 2006/07. This equates to $707 per hectare or $66.28 per stock unit.
The key drivers behind the increase in gross farm revenue are a 20 percent reduction in the level of stock purchases and an increase in expected lamb price.

Sheep revenue is expected to increase 11 percent from 2005/06 to 2006/07 driven by lower replacement costs and an expected $2.80 per head increase in lamb price to $56.50 per head, despite lower anticipated sale weights. More lambs are to be marketed at weaning as farmers look to specialise in either breeding or finishing.

Cattle revenue for 2006/07 is expected to be 14 percent higher than 2005/06, although when the change in stock numbers is accounted for this becomes an increase of 7 percent. This increase is due to marketing heavier weight cattle resulting in a $22 per head higher sale price and a lower average purchase price leading to a better margin per head. Calving percentages are forecast to be maintained at their current levels in 2006/07.

Grazing revenue is expected to hold at the current high levels of $14,600 in 2006/07. The high level of grazing reflects farmers’ efforts to protect profitability against low cattle margins (sale price less purchase price).

Wool prices are expected to firm to around $2.60 per kilogram greasy, creating wool revenue of $54,000. This firming in wool price is due to the easing exchange rate.

Expenditure

Total cash farm expenditure is expected to increase 3 percent in 2006/07 to $251,000 or $443 per hectare.

There are no single large increases in expenditure, rather a slight increase across the range of farm working expenses. This is indicative of farmers’ expectations that the overall cost of inputs to a farming system are getting more expensive.

Repairs and maintenance expenditure has largely stabilised in the 2006/07 season as most farmers now consider they have caught up on deferred repairs and maintenance, after the last five years of higher expenditure, and expect to be able maintain current levels.

Similarly, fertiliser expenditure is also expected to stabilise, as farmers continue to rationalise their expenditure on fertiliser. While levels of application may be expected to be lower in the coming season, a lower exchange rate and higher fuel cost is also expected to increase the price of the product and application.

The key areas of increasing expenditure are wages (4 percent), fuel (10 percent), shearing (9 percent), and rates (6 percent).

Interest and rent expenditure is expected to increase 11 percent to $88,400. The increase in interest costs (10 percent) is due to increased borrowing to cover additional land purchases and off farm investment. The increased rent and lease payments are a result of the increased leased area and an incremental increase in lease rates.

Net result

The cash farm surplus for 2006/07 is expected to increase by 42 percent to $61,000 as a result of higher sheep and cattle revenue.

The cash result for 2006/07 is forecast to improve by 57 percent to a deficit of $23,000. This is primarily due to less capital purchases and a small tax refund, but countered by less new borrowings and off-farm income.

The economic farm surplus (EFS) is expected to improve from $120 per hectare in 2005/06 to $134 per hectare in 2006/07. The return on capital is expected to increase to 1.6 percent as farm values stabilise and profitability (EFS) improves.

Figure 7.1: Hawkes Bay/Wairarapa hill country sheep and beef profitability trends

Figure 7.1: Hawkes Bay/Wairarapa hill country sheep and beef profitability trends

Issues and trends

One of the key concerns among farmers is the widening gap between farm profitability and land values. This is making the viability of farming increasingly marginal as farms fail to generate a satisfactory return on investment to meet debt servicing commitments and owners/farmers personal financial requirements. The lease market is also considered to be out of line with profitability. This year has seen a number of farmers decide not to renew leases or to become more critical about the rental that they pay for lease properties.

This is raising the issue of who will make up the next farming generation. Poor return on capital significantly limits farmers with lower equity to purchase farms or compete for lease properties. The poor profitability and returns of farms is impacting on succession plans. It is becoming increasing difficult to be fair and achieve equality among family members.

Farmers are increasingly concerned that the Government appears unsupportive of primary industry. Farmers see eroding properties rights and increasing intervention in the activities that they are permitted to undertake. Their property rights are affected by a wide array of intervention including the Resource Management Act, local body law, proposed walking access legislation, nutrient run-off implications, water quality and sub-division law.

The volatility of the exchange rate is also seen as a significant issue on-farm. This is due to impact of the exchange rate on product prices and the cost of inputs (for example, fertiliser and fuel).

Lack of market intelligence has caused a degree of frustration among farmers this year. The rapid decline in the lamb market from November to March was not predicted and severely impacted on farming businesses profitability.

The direct and indirect impact of increasing fuel costs is of major concern among farmers. Transport prices have already increased by 9 percent in the last 12 months and are expected to continue to climb as fuel prices increase. Farmers are becoming more conservative in their vehicle use in response to the increasing cost of fuel.

Shearing costs have increased considerably with contract shearing rates in Wairarapa at $3.20 per head. These prices are anticipated to continue to increase as fewer shearers become available and compliance costs continue to increase.

The clover root weevil has become established in the Hawkes Bay region and is beginning to influence farm performance. Some of the poor lamb growth rates last spring have been attributed to the reduced clover content as a result of the clover root weevil.

The level of nitrogen use is continuing to come under increasing scrutiny. Farmers are looking at the economics and environmental impacts of nitrogen use and redefining what is an acceptable level of nitrogen input.

The issue of drench resistance has risen to the top of the topical issues on farm. Many farmers are looking at their drenching strategy and wondering how they can manage their farm to balance the risk of drench resistance while maintaining production.

There is a general feeling among farmers that there is a lack of new technologies. The key areas of research for the Hawkes Bay/Wairarapa are overcoming drench resistance, improving dry matter production and feed quality on hill country, and the field of genetic markers.

Farmers are still faced with the challenge of finding suitable staff. Response rates to advertising are still low and the quality of applicants is limited.

Over recent years, a large number of farmers have moved from breeding to finishing. This has increased demand for animals suitable for finishing and reduced the margin of finishing farmers. As a result, they are looking for other stock to farm for a better margin including the trading of dairy stock and grazing dairy stock.

With high equity levels but poor profitability from farming, most farmers are looking to off-farm investment as a way of increasing their overall wealth. These investments include property (commercial and residential), the share market and urban businesses.

The sustainability of calf rearers is also of concern to bull finishers. The price paid for four-day-old calves and the cost of milk replacer has seen calf rearers’ margins deteriorate. The industry only continues to rear calves in satisfactory volumes each year because the number of new calf rearers is matching the number of rearers exiting the industry due to the poor financial returns.

Table 7.4: Hawkes Bay/Wairarapa hill country sheep and beef budget

  2005/06  2006/07f 
 Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)
Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)

Revenue

      
Sheep260 02146767.53267 75547366.38
Wool51 5059213.3854 0439513.40
Cattle154 462277101.17154 81627493.83
Grazing income14 5472638.6914 650262.43
Other farm income12 392222.1511 012191.82
Less      
Sheep purchases58 52010515.2044 7077911.08
Cattle purchases68 88612445.1257 46310234.83
Gross farm revenue365 52165663.53400 10570766.28
Cash farm expenditure243 24443742.28251 01044341.58
Interest49 076888.5354 029958.95
Rent and/or lease30 415555.2934 400615.70
Cash farm surplus42 786777.4460 66610710.05
Stock value adjustment34 387625.9816 486292.73
Minus depreciation15 092272.6214 840262.46
Net trading profit62 08111110.7962 31311010.32
Taxation29 997545.21– 1 027– 2– 0.17
Net trading profit after tax32 084585.5863 34011210.49

Allocation of funds

      
Add back depreciation15 092272.6214 840262.46
Reverse stock value adjustment– 34 387– 62– 5.98– 16 486– 29– 2.73
Drawings55 044999.5755 000979.11
Principal repayments29 308535.0934 277615.68
Development9 450171.642 00040.33
Capital purchases61 71411110.7310 000181.66
Disposable surplus/deficit142 72725624.8139 584706.56

Other cash sources

New borrowing61 47511010.68000.00
Off–farm income28 056504.8816 514292.74
Other cash income000.00000.00
Net cash change53 196969.2523 070413.82

Assets and liabilities

      
Farm, forest & building (opening)3 853 4056 918669.753 990 3907 050661.03
Plant and machinery (opening)100 61118117.4998 93117516.39
Stock valuation (opening)499 19989686.76533 58694388.39
Total farm capital4 453 2157 995774.004 622 9078 168765.81
Total debt opening676 4601 214117.57736 5761 301122.02
Equity3 776 7556 781656.433 886 3316 866643.79

Symbol
f Forecast

Table 7.5: Hawkes Bay/Wairarapa hill country sheep and beef expenditure

  2005/06  2006/07f 
 Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)
Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)

Farm working expenses

      
Permanent wages25 974474.5126 980484.47
Casual wages8 867161.549 200161.52
ACC6 648121.164 65780.77
Animal health20 534373.5721 750383.60
Breeding49610.0951010.08
Electricity4 36280.764 50080.75
Feed (hay and silage)3 42060.593 45060.57
Feed (crops)000.00000.00
Feed (grazing)2 12540.372 25040.37
Feed (other)1 22020.211 30020.22
Fertiliser44 809807.7945 700817.57
Lime6 374111.116 400111.06
Farm forestry expenses92820.1697520.16
Freight (not elsewhere deducted)5 365100.935 450100.90
Re–grassing costs (contractors)8 384151.468 535151.41
Shearing costs27 031497.0229 500527.31
Weed and pest control6 366111.116 400111.06
Fuel8 669161.519 500171.57
Vehicle costs (excluding fuel)10 348191.8012 500222.07
Repairs and maintenance21 391383.7222 100393.66
Communication costs (phone & mail)2 51350.442 50040.41
Accountancy4 19880.734 15070.69
Legal and consultancy4 15870.723 24060.54
Other administration2 61950.463 14360.52
Rates7 760141.358 200141.36
Insurance4 89890.854 90090.81
Water charges28710.0530010.05
Other expenditure3 50060.612 92050.48
Cash farm expenditure243 24443742.28251 01044341.58

Calculated ratios

      
Economic farm surplus (or EFS1)66 57212011.5775 74113412.55
Cash farm expenditure/GFR2 67%  63%  
EFS/total farm capital1.5%  1.6%  
EFS less interest and lease/equity– 0.3%  – 0.3%  
Interest+rent+lease/GFR21.7%  22.1%  
EFS/GFR18.2%  18.9% 

Notes
1 EFS (or Earnings before interest and tax) is calculated as follows: gross farm revenue plus change in livestock values less working expenses less depreciation less wages of management (WOM). WOM are calculated as follows: $31,000 allowance for labour input plus 1% of total capital as managerial reward. An upper limit for WOM of $75,000 has been set.
2 Gross farm revenue.
Symbol
f Forecast

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Farm Monitoring Programme Manager
Monitoring and Evaluation
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0623
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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