8  Manawatu/Rangitikei intensive sheep and beef

The Manawatu/Rangitikei intensive sheep and beef farm

This model is situated on flat to easy rolling country in the Manawatu and Rangitikei districts. The model farm is 393 effective hectares, with 318 owned and 75 leased. The annual rental on the lease block is $37,500, or $500 per hectare. Farms are mainly involved in lamb and cattle purchasing and finishing, but the model includes a 1500 ewe flock. In addition to purchasing and selling stock, farmers contract-graze stock for other farmers. In the model 2950 lambs are grazed for 16 weeks and 110 dairy heifers for 50 weeks. Many farms in this district also undertake a small amount of cropping, largely as part of their re-grassing programme.

Table 8.1: Manawatu/Rangitikei intensive sheep and beef model summary, 2005/06

Effective area393 ha Total stock units wintered14 561su
Opening stock wintered  Breeding cows0 hd
Breeding ewes1 500 hd R1yr cattle190 hd
Replacement ewe hoggets500 hd R2yr cattle135 hd
Other sheep1 820 hd Other cattle0 hd

Note
1 Includes opening grazing stock numbers.

Key points

  • 2005/06 was a mixed season. Winter and early spring 2005 were good, but were followed by a wet, cool October and November, then a dry period in February and March 2006.
  • Growth rates in young stock were disappointing and delayed finishing.
  • Lamb price declined rapidly and unexpectedly in autumn due to an unforeseen collapse in the export market.
  • This class of farm is very dependent on trading margins for stock and grazing revenues. The difficulties in trading and finishing lambs have led to an increasing trend toward grazing lambs on contract.
  • Reduced trading margins on cattle and lambs were primarily responsible for the reduced gross farm revenue and a sizable disposable deficit in 2005/06.
  • Farmers are more optimistic about trading margins and an improved financial result in 2006/07 after the disappointing result in 2005/06.
  • Closure of the McCain Foods vegetable processing plant at Feilding has reduced cropping options for these farmers.

Table 8.2: Key parameters of the Manawatu/Rangitikei intensive sheep and beef model

  2002/03 2003/04 2004/051 2005/06 2006/07f
Effective area (ha)393393393393393
Opening sheep stock units3 0892 4963 0703 1263 231
Opening cattle stock units1 9002 2842 1091 4351 695
Opening total stock units4 9894 7805 1794 5614 926
Stocking rate (su/ha)12.712.213.211.612.5
Ewe lambing (%)129122132130130
Average lamb price ($/hd)69.0069.0070.6060.0063.00
Average wool price ($/kg)3.072.782.742.552.71
Total wool produced (kg)14 83214 8229 83013 94014 550
Wool production (kg/ssu2)5.35.93.24.54.5
Average 30-month bull ($/hd)001 0101 1001 120
Gross farm revenue ($)408 165449 552422 165397 757450 829
Cash farm surplus ($)110 929132 95776 64628 75183 427
Net trading profit ($)70 717114 15265 63435 42660 487
Disposable surplus/deficit ($)– 16 87612 607– 27 355– 57 849– 2 261

Notes
1 2004/05 figures have been revised because of changes to the sale and purchase price of lambs and the stocking rate calculation.
2 Sheep stock unit.
Symbol
f Forecast

Physical factors

The season from July to September 2005 was milder and drier than average. This improved pasture growth rates and feed utilisation. Lamb survival also improved but high ewe death rates were a feature, attributed largely to a higher incidence of bearings in ewes.

The October to December period was characterised by dull, cool weather. Properties were tight for feed over this period. Growth rates in young stock, particularly lambs, were disappointing, with cold weather being largely blamed for the poor performance. As a result, a greater proportion of lambs were sold store in 2005/06 (15 percent) than in 2004/05 (5 percent).

There was a noticeable lack of clover in pastures. This was attributed largely to clover root weevil damage but the same problem arose in other parts of the country where clover root weevil was not present. Apart from the cold weather, another suggested cause was the much lower level of nitrogen applied over the early spring period, along with leaching by heavy rains in October, resulting in low nitrogen levels by early summer.
By December 2005, weaning weights in lambs and growth rates in young cattle were 10 percent to 15 percent behind, which delayed the processing of this stock. Ewes also lost condition over this period, and the growth rate of two-tooth ewe replacements, particularly those that had lambed as hoggets, suffered.

The region went through a very dry spell from late January to mid-March 2006. This had negative consequences for both production and revenue. The diminished feed supply delayed the finishing of cattle and particularly lambs. This coincided with a downward correction in prime lamb and store lamb prices due to an unforeseen collapse in the export market for lamb. This delay in the finishing and sale of stock further exposed properties in this region to the rapid decline in sheep prices.

Cereal crops were established on time due to the dry weather through September and early October. Later-sown feed crops were, however, adversely affected by very wet conditions in late November and early December. This reduced the subsequent summer yield in some of these crops.

Yields in cereal crops were variable through February and March 2006. Some good crops of greenfeed maize and squash grown to contract, and good yields of malting and feed barley were reported.

The season improved with good rain in late March resulting in very strong pasture recovery and feed covers building through April and May. Air temperatures in April and May were 1 to 1.5 degrees above-average.

The Rangitikei region did not suffer the extremes of dry weather that Manawatu experienced over the January to March 2006 period and stock production from that region are likely to be less affected. By contrast, the coastal sand country of Manawatu dried off very early and took longer to recover after rain in the autumn.

There has been a very cold start to winter, and although feed covers at the end of May 2006 were 10 to 15 percent ahead of normal, they have disappeared quickly.

The lambing percentage for 2005 at 130 percent was 2 percent lower than 2004. This was due primarily to bearings in ewes. This lower lambing percentage is expected to continue for the 2006 lambing. Breeding ewes were under feed pressure through March 2006 and this is expected to have had some negative effect on ovulation rates. This is forecast to reduce lambing percentages, particularly for later lambing ewes. However, the scanning rates for early March tupping flocks have been good.

The feed carried through from the early spring surpluses in 2005 was much more suited to cattle, and cows and weaned calves did well. The good pasture growth rates supported the beef cattle markets (prime and store) and led to some substitution of cattle for lambs.

Due to the difficulties experienced in trading and finishing lambs over the summer period, and with the decline in the lamb schedule, there is an increasing trend away from trading lambs toward grazing lambs on contract to meat companies, large-scale breeding operations and private stockowners. As a result, there was a reduced turnover of traded lambs in 2005/06 (2800 lambs purchased) compared with 2004/05 (3100 lambs purchased). This trend is forecast to carry on into 2006/07 (2550 lambs purchased) with substitution of lamb grazing in place of lamb trading. Grazed lambs have increased from 570 in 2004/05, to 2950 in 2005/06, and 3200 forecast in 2006/07.

Declining store cattle numbers and increasing demand for store cattle, has seen the trading margins in finishing cattle diminish over the last two years. This in turn has resulted in a lower turnover in trading stock; finishers trading down an age class to reduce the cost of replacements and holding cattle for longer periods; and an increase in the number of grazing cattle, particularly dairy stock (largely 12-month replacement heifer grazing as opposed to short-term cow grazing in the winter).

There is an expectation of a 6 percent higher stocking rate by 30 June 2006 but whether this eventuates will depend very much on influences from the market and the season in June 2006.

Financial position of the farm

Review of 2005/06

Revenue

Gross farm revenue of $398,000 was 6 percent lower than 2004/05 and 15 percent down on the forecast due primarily to the high exchange rate, the unexpected and rapid decline in the lamb price, and poor animal growth rates. Trading margins on cattle and particularly on lambs were reduced, but grazing income was higher than forecast. The price of wool in this model also declined further to $2.55 per kilogram in 2005/06, compared with $2.74 in 2004/05.

The net revenue per hectare derived from sheep (sales less purchases) for 2005/06 is expected to be $440, compared to $470 per hectare for the 2004/05 year. The net beef revenue was $208 per hectare in 2005/06 ($326 per hectare in 2004/05), and revenue from grazing was $209 per hectare ($169 per hectare in 2004/05). The gross farm revenue per hectare for 2005/06 is $1,012 per hectare ($1,074 per hectare in 2004/05), a decline of approximately 6 percent.

Table 8.3: Manawatu/Rangitikei intensive sheep and beef cash farm revenue

 2002/03
($)
2003/04
($)
2004/05r
($)
2005/06
($)
2006/07f
($)
Sheep sales less purchases171 388182 732185 816173 175187 715
Cattle sales less purchases164 250166 905128 06681 855110 250
Wool45 53441 20526 88635 55739 399
Grazing income18 84357 27066 39782 17091 465
Other income8 1501 44015 00025 00022 000
Gross farm revenue408 165449 552422 165397 757450 829

Symbol
f Forecast
r Revised

Expenditure

Total farm expenses for 2005/06 were $253,000, or $644 per hectare, 1.5 percent lower than in 2004/05. Despite this, cash farm expenditure as a percentage of gross farm revenue increased between these years from 60 percent in 2004/05 to 64 percent in 2005/06 because of the lower revenue.

Some key movements in the model were a 20 percent increase in wages, a 30 percent increase in vehicle and fuel costs, a 44 percent increase in rates (some rate relief post-flooding applied in 2004/05), a 10 percent decrease in expenditure on fertiliser and lime, an 18 percent reduction in re-grassing expenditure, and a 15 percent decrease in repairs and maintenance. There was a 23 percent increase in agricultural contracting costs on surveyed farms.

The reality of the decline in farming incomes was not apparent until February/March 2006, by which time the expenditure programmes had already been committed, resulting in higher than expected cash deficits for the year.

The model shows tax refunds in 2005/06 and a low payment in 2006/07, but most farmers will be paying tax in 2005/06 if they do not adjust or re-estimate their provisional tax. This could add $13,000 to the deficit in 2005/06 and result in a larger tax refund in 2006/07.

Net result

The net trading profit before tax in the model amounted to $35,400 ($90 per hectare) around 50 percent of the 2004/05 result. This is some $50,000 less than forecast, and was mainly attributable to net cattle revenue being 41 percent lower than forecast and net sheep revenue 13 percent lower than forecast. Net trading profits on surveyed farms ranged from –$197 per hectare to $585 per hectare and seven of the 20 farms contributing to the model had negative net trading profits before tax.

The disposable deficit after debt repayments, drawings, capital purchases, and tax for the 2005/06 year is $57,800. This compares with a deficit of $27,000 in the 2004/05 year. The properties represented by this model are quite highly geared with farm working expenses at 64 percent of gross farm revenue and interest and rent at 29 percent of gross farm revenue.

Forecasts for 2006/07

Revenue

Farmers in this model expect gross farm revenue to increase by 13 percent in 2006/07 compared with 2005/06. There is a general expectation of bigger trading margins for both lamb and cattle finishing. Farmers are expecting to pay less for store lambs in 2006/07 than in 2005/06 ($46 versus $47) and they are expecting a slight increase in the works lamb price from $62 to $63 in 2006/07. Compared with 2005/06, when 15 percent of lambs were sold store, farmers are expecting to return to more normal levels of 95 percent of lambs being sold to the works. The resulting forecast is an increase in average lamb price from $60.00 in 2005/06 to $63.00 in 2006/07.

Farmers are expecting the margin between cattle sales and purchases to increase to $450 in 2006/07 from $370 in 2005/06. This increased margin is expected to result from the purchase of younger cattle, purchasing cattle earlier in the season and a return to holding more cattle over winter. Fewer cattle are expected to be traded in 2006/07.

The wool price is expected to recover to $2.71 per kilogram in 2006/07, up from $2.55 per kilogram in 2005/06. Wool weights have been variable depending on the number of trading lambs that were shorn.

The revenue achieved from grazing stock (cattle and sheep) increased from $66,000 in 2004/05 to $82,000 in 2005/06, and is expected to be $91,000 in 2007.

The net revenue per hectare derived from sheep (sales less purchases) is forecast to increase to $478 per hectare in 2006/07, (from $440 per hectare in 2005/06). Net cattle revenue is forecast to increase to $281 per hectare (from $208), grazing revenue to increase to $232 per hectare (from $209) and gross farm revenue per hectare is forecast to be $1,147, compared with $1,012 per hectare in the 2005/06 year.

Expenditure

The forecast for 2006/07 has total farm expenses reduced from $644 to $627 per hectare (down 3 percent). The main budget reductions are discretionary items of expenditure such as fertiliser (down 11 percent), and repairs and maintenance (down 17 percent). These reductions may be hard to achieve in practice.

There is a trend for owner-operators to do more work themselves rather than employ contractors (for cultivation work, shearing, etc.). Most of these properties have had above-maintenance levels of expenditure on their infrastructure and facilities in the last four to five years and can afford to live off this for a couple of years if they have to.

Cost increases are expected for freight, fuel, insurance, and interest costs. Fixed rate mortgages are beginning to roll over at higher interest rates. Development and capital purchases are expected to be reduced.

Local government rating policies in these districts have been adjusted and farmers are expecting rural rates to hold at current levels in 2006/07 and, in some cases, to even reduce.

Net result

The net trading profit before tax in the model for 2006/07 is forecast to be $60,000 compared with $35,000 in 2005/06. The net result forecast for 2006/07 is an economic farm surplus (EFS) of $271 per hectare (40 percent up on 2005/06).

Figure 8.1: Manawatu/Rangitikei intensive sheep and beef profitability trends

Figure 8.1: Manawatu/Rangitikei intensive sheep and beef profitability trends

Issues and trends

The decline in the exchange rate has restored some confidence to farmers. Despite a difficult trading environment in the second half of 2005/06, there is a general perception among farmers that the worst is behind them in terms of the sheep market and the high exchange rate. If commodity prices do not improve in the early part of the 2006/07 year, we will see a further reduction in expenditure in these businesses in order to preserve profitability.

The high exchange rate that prevailed through to late February 2006, in combination with the collapse of the export lamb market through the autumn, and the dry conditions that prevailed over that period, put a lot of pressure on farm businesses in this region. This has brought about serious scrutiny of profitability, particularly in light of the declining margins in lamb and cattle trading. The lack of market intelligence in forecasting the fall off in lamb prices for the 2006 autumn has appalled and frustrated sheep farmers.

Inflation in costs is having a large impact on profitability. The 35 percent increase in fuel costs over the last 18 months has impacted on transport and service costs. In addition, shearing and wages increased along with the cost of fertiliser, and materials for repairs and maintenance.

There has been increased use of Palm kernel extract as a feed supplement to substitute for maize silage, but the variable metabolisable energy provided by Palm kernel extract is noted.

Property values in the Manawatu and Rangitikei continue to firm. The value of land and buildings in the model has been increased from $9,000 per hectare in 2004/05 to $11,200 per hectare by June 2006, an increase of 25 percent. These estimates of value are borne out by recent land sales.

Some expansionary activity in the form of purchases of land and acquisitions of leases continues. The average property size in our 20-farm survey sample was relatively static from 2004/05 to 2005/06, but has increased 6 percent from 2006/07, primarily through land purchase. Total debt on these properties has increased from $650,000 in 2004/05, to $900,000 in 2005/06, moving up to $940,000 in 2006/07. One of the main reasons for the increase in debt in 2006/07 is a significant amount of land purchase within the surveyed farms.

The miss-match between property values and the profitability of those properties is putting pressure on those businesses that have recently bought land and even those that are leasing land to find alternative, more profitable land uses. There is also increasing difficulty in implementing succession plans because of the high value of the asset involved in relation to the viability of farming that asset, and the difficulty it imposes in terms of achieving parity in the treatment of siblings and providing for the retiring family’s needs.

Off-farm investment into residential, industrial and commercial property continues as farmers seek to diversify their asset base.

The influence of the dairy sector on this class of property is considerable. We see this through increased grazing of dairy heifers and growing of supplementary feed such as maize silage. The dairy sector is competing to lease this class of land with prices of up to $600 per hectare annual lease rental being paid for land that can be milked off, compared to the $390 to $420 per hectare being paid by dry stock sheep and beef farmers to lease similar land. Dairy heifer grazing is predicted to reduce as more dairy farms purchase run-offs. There is a surplus of dairy heifer grazing being offered, but this has not translated into reduced prices except for above-average grazing rates.

There appears to be further decline in cash cropping area although there is some optimism that the malting barley and feed barley prices may increase in 2007.

The withdrawal of McCain’s contracts from this area has removed this option from those who are growing potatoes and sweet corn for this company. These growers may now turn to maize or squash as an alternative, which will effectively increase competition for the growing of these crops. Some properties are likely to revert to livestock.

There is concern at the gradual erosion of property rights through the imposition of the Resource Management Act, local body legislation, walking access proposals, nutrient budgeting and water quality regulation, and subdivision laws.

There is an ongoing difficulty in finding qualified staff to employ on these properties (as in other primary industry sectors).

There is a perception that the government is unsupportive of producers and exporters, and doesn’t understand the relationship between production, employment, exports and GDP, and, therefore, the wealth and well-being of the country’s population.

Table 8.4: Manawatu/Rangitikei intensive sheep and beef budget

  2005/06  2006/07f 
 Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)
Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)

Revenue

      
Sheep306 525780119.46306 765781114.85
Wool35 5579013.8639 39910014.75
Cattle251 420640225.49252 460642189.11
Grazing income82 17020993.3891 46523318.57
Other farm income25 000645.4822 000564.47
Less      
Sheep purchases133 35033951.97119 05030344.57
Cattle purchases169 565431152.08142 210362106.52
Gross farm revenue397 7571 01287.21450 8291 14791.52
Cash farm expenditure253 13164455.50246 25262749.99
Interest78 37519917.1883 65021316.98
Rent and/or lease37 500958.2237 500957.61
Cash farm surplus28 751736.3083 42721216.94
Stock value adjustment28 575736.27– 1 325– 3– 0.27
Minus depreciation21 900564.8021 615554.39
Net trading profit35 426907.7760 48715412.28
Taxation– 2 543– 6–0.5672320.15
Net trading profit after tax37 970978.3259 76415212.13

Allocation of funds

      
Add back depreciation21 900564.8021 615554.39
Reverse stock value adjustment– 28 575– 73– 6.271 32530.27
Drawings46 00011710.0946 0001179.34
Principal repayments20 000514.3922 000564.47
Development3 14480.691 96550.40
Capital purchases20 000514.3915 000383.05
Disposable surplus/deficit57 84914712.682 26160.46

Other cash sources

      
New borrowing20 000514.39000.00
Off–farm income9 000231.979 000231.83
Other cash income000.00000.00
Net cash change28 849736.336 739171.37

Assets and liabilities

      
Farm, forest & building (opening)4 410 50011 223967.004 410 50011 223895.35
Plant and machinery (opening)146 00037232.01144 10036729.25
Stock valuation (opening)350 73089276.90387 08098578.58
Total farm capital4 907 23012 4871075.914 941 68012 5741 003.18
Total debt opening900 0002 290197.33940 0002 392190.82
Equity4 007 23010 197878.594 001 68010 182812.36

Symbol
f Forecast

Table 8.5: Manawatu/Rangitikei intensive sheep and beef expenditure

  2005/06  2006/07f 
 Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)
Whole
farm
($)
Per
ha
($)
Per
su
($)

Farm working expenses

      
Permanent wages35 370907.7535 763917.26
Casual wages000.00000.00
ACC4 187110.923 44190.70
Animal health14 541373.1913 755352.79
Breeding1 57240.341 96550.40
Electricity5 109131.125 502141.12
Feed (hay and silage)3 930100.863 930100.80
Feed (crops)3 930100.864 323110.88
Feed (grazing)1 57240.34000.00
Feed (other)000.00000.00
Fertiliser54 62713911.9848 3391239.81
Lime39310.0939310.08
Farm forestry costs000.00000.00
Freight (not elsewhere deducted)9 825252.1510 611272.15
Re-grassing costs (contractors)9 039231.989 825251.99
Shearing costs (per ssu)23 362599.1023 517608.80
Weed and pest control6 681171.466 288161.28
Fuel11 790302.5813 362342.71
Vehicle costs (excluding fuel)13 362342.9311 004282.23
Repairs and maintenance20 829534.5717 292443.51
Communication costs (phone and mail)2 75170.602 75170.56
Accountancy3 930100.863 930100.80
Legal and consultancy1 57240.341 57240.32
Other administration2 75170.602 75170.56
Rates14 148363.1014 148362.87
Insurance5 502141.216 681171.36
Water charges000.00000.00
Other expenditure2 35860.525 109131.04
Cash farm expenditure253 13164455.50246 25262749.99

Calculated ratios

      
Economic farm surplus (EFS1)76 30119416.73106 63727121.65
Cash farm expenditure/GFR2 64%55%
EFS/total farm capital1.6%2.2%
EFS less interest & lease/equity– 1.0%– 0.4%
Interest+rent+lease/GFR29.1%26.9%
EFS/GFR19.2%23.7%  

Notes
1 EFS (or Earnings before interest and tax) is calculated as follows: gross farm revenue plus change in livestock values less working expenses less depreciation less wages of management (WOM). WOM are calculated as follows: $31,000 allowance for labour input plus 1% of total capital as managerial reward. An upper limit for WOM of $75,000 has been set.
2 Gross farm revenue.
Symbol
f Forecast

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Farm Monitoring Programme Manager
Monitoring and Evaluation
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0623
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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