MAF Policy Price Forecast
The following table contains actual average product prices paid to growers, with last year's estimates and this year's forecast provided by MAF.
All prices are sensitive to exchange rate movements, particularly beef, dairying and wool, which are traded more in United States dollars. The forecast lamb price drop reflects slightly lower lamb weights and lower market expectations. Wool prices are expected to recover a little. Beef prices are expected to remain up.
1996/97 |
1997/98 |
1998/99 |
1999/2000 |
2000/01 |
|
Product |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Estimate |
Forecast |
| Lamb Schedule | $44.20/hd | $39.20/hd | $40.20/hd | $47.40/hd | $42.30/hd |
| (September year) | |||||
| Wool Auction Price | 443 c/kg clean | 449 c/kg clean | 412 c/kg clean | 438 c/kg clean | 458 c/kg clean |
| (June year) | |||||
| Prime Steer | 174.8 c/kg | 236 c/kg | 241 c/kg | 285 c/kg | 294 c/kg |
| (September year) | |||||
| Beef Manufacturing Cow Schedule Price | 134 c/kg | 178 c/kg | 200 c/kg | 218 c/kg | 222 c/kg |
| (September year) | |||||
| Venison AP2 Grade, | $7.00/kg | $5.40/kg | $5.07/kg | $6.09/kg | 5.68/kg |
| (June year) | |||||
| Weighted Average Velvet Price | $78,00/kg | $41.00/kg | $46.00/kg | $112.00/kg | $11 0.001kg |
| (June year) | |||||
| Logs | $116.80/m3 | $117.30/m3 | $89 00/M3 | $97 ,oom3 | $103m3 |
| (March year) | |||||
| Source: MAF Policy |
Sector Summary Tables
The tables below contain the actual, estimated and forecast figures for some of the main hill country models. The estimates and forecasts are a consensus, and are provided by the farmers visited.
Wool Prices ($/kg greasy not at farmgate/at store) |
|||||
| Hill Country | 1996/97 | 1997/98 | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 | 2000/01 |
| Actual | Actual | Actual | Estimate | Forecast | |
| Central North Island Hill Country | 2.75 | 2.63 | 2 .61 | 2.50 | 2.63 |
| Gisborne Large Hill Country | 2.74 | 2.55 | 2.42 | 2.l34 | 2.36 |
| Hawke's Bay Summer Moist | 2.78 | 2,52 | 2.45 | 2.52 | 2.61 |
| Canterbury/Marlborough Breeding & Finishing | 3.27 | 2.70 | 2.61 | 2.61 | 2.90 |
| Southland/South Otago Intensive | 2.75 | 2.64 | 2,60 | 2.60 | 2.76 |
| South Island Merino | 5.43 | 7.42 | 7.82 | 7.82 | 8.10 |
Average Lamb Prices ($/hd, all counted, i.e., lambs slaughtered plus those sold at store) |
|||||
| 1996/97 | 1997/98 | 1998/99 | 1999/2000 | 2000/01 | |
| Hill Country | Actual | Actual | Actual | Estimate | Forecast |
| Central North Island Hill Country | 41.00 | 36.64 | 34.52 | 41.38 | 40.10 |
| Gisborne Large Hill Country | 37.00 | 29.80 | 36.07 | 43.26 | 40.85 |
| Hawke's Bay Summer Moist | 40.82 | 31.88 | 38,68 | 47,15 | 46.56 |
| Canterbury/Marlborough Breeding & Finishing | 40,87 | 35,50 | 33,00 | 41 92 | 40,35 |
| Southland/South Otago Intensive | 42,00 | 39,55 | 35 57 | 42.14 | 4324 |
| South lsland Merino | 28.00 | 24.00 | 20.51 | 36.43 | 36 26 |
Cattle Prices ($/hd) |
||||||
Average Cull Cow Price |
Rising 2yr Steers |
|||||
| Hill Country | 1998/99 | 1999/2000e | 2000/01f | 1998/99 | 1999/2000e | 2000/01f |
| Central North Island Hill Country | 379 | 559 | 559 | 621 | 844 | 869 |
| Gisborne Large Hill Country | 390 | 558 | 888 | 396 | 716 | 791 |
| Hawke's Bay Summer Moist | 390 | 639 | 558 | 700 | 765 | 786 |
| Canterbury/Marlborough Breeding & Finishing | 350 | 510 | 510 | 550 | 682 | 750 |
| Southland/South Otago Intensive | 372 | 574 | 537 | 558 | 841 | 763 |
| South Island Merino | 393 | 593 | 571 | 399 | 599 | 647 |
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Contact for Enquiries
Farm Monitoring Programme Manager
Monitoring and Evaluation
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0623
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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