Otago Dry Hill
Model Description
This model represents 400 farms in the Otago area. These farms range in size from 500-4,000 ha and are spread from Kurow in North Otago to Millers Flat in Central Otago, but with the main concentration being in the Middlemarch and inland Palmerston areas. The model farm is 1,500 ha.
These farms are characterised by systems that cope with dry summers and long, cold winters. The rainfall is 400-700 mm per annum, but drought days number over 100 per year. These properties are predominantly hill with a small area of dryland valley floor. Some have a small area of irrigated valley floor. They differ from downland farms in that they are more extensive, are at higher altitude, sell more store stock, have lower stocking rates and stock performance, and have a greater number of stock units. The sheep breed is romney, perendale or halfbred. Distance from service centres lessens opportunities for off-farm employment. During the last two financial years most farmers in this model have encountered severe drought conditions.
| Table 1: The Model in Summary 1999/2000 | ||||
| Effective area: | 1,500 | ha | ||
| Stock wintered: | ||||
| Breeding ewes | 4,065 | hd | Breeding cows | 85 hd |
| Replacement ewe hoggets | 896 | hd | R1yr cattle | 34 hd |
| Other sheep | 171 | hd | R2yr cattle | 18 hd |
| Total stock units wintered | 5,581 | su | Other cattle | 3 hd |
Table 2: Key Parameters |
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1998/99 |
1999/2000 | 2000/01 | |
| Area (he effective) | 1,500 | 1,500 | 1,5000 |
| Closing sheep stock units | 4,412 | 4,839 | 4,87 |
| Closing cattle stock units | 701 | 742 | 80 |
| Closing total stock units | 5,113 | 5,581 | 5,68 |
| Stocking rate (su/ha) | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.1 |
| Lambing % | 105 | 113 | 120 |
| Average lamb price ($/hd) | 28.23 | 39.30 | 39.33 |
| Average wool price ($/kg) | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Total wool produced (kg) | 20,623 | 19,819 | 22,791 |
| Wool (kg/su) | 4.22 | 4.49 | 4.71 |
| Average R2yr steer ($/hd) | 442 | 642 | 788 |
| Average cull cow ($/hd) | 335 | 461 | 529 |
| Gross farm revenue ($) | 224,587 | 222,193 | 278,626 |
| Cash farm surplus ($) | 50,362 | 53,722 | 92,354 |
Key Points
- The 1999/2000 season saw the first steps to recovery for these properties, after two consecutive years of drought and ongoing repercussions.
- Rebuilding of capital stock numbers at an average cost of $28,000 per farm has taken a large share of the potential cash surplus from these properties.
- Higher lamb, ewe and cattle prices helped offset lower numbers resulting from the drought.
- The financial result was a net cash improvement of $5,910.
- Farm debt dropped slightly during the 1999/2000 year, reversing the increasing indebtedness trend of previous years.
Physical Factors
Otago dry hill properties experienced severe drought conditions in 1997/98 and 1998/99. Another mild winter in 1999, along with stock numbers at 80% of normal, meant that stock came to the spring of 1999 in better condition than the previous year. Some areas in the model had received good autumn rains but overall rainfall continued well below average all year. Low evapotranspiration rates over the spring allowed the properties to manage with this below average rainfall. By mid-December some properties had sold ewes with lambs-at-foot, or had weaned and sold store lambs. At that time the Meteorological Service was predicting another summer of below average rainfall.
From January 2000 most of the area received as much rain in five months (to the end of May 2000) as they did for the entire 12 months of 1999. Pasture growth for January to May 2000 was above average, resulting in improved stock weights and condition, and refilling supplementary feed reserves. Ewes were 5 kg heavier going to the ram this year compared to last year.
A potentially poor year turned out better than expected for those properties with adequate stock numbers. Heavier lambs led to an increase in average lamb price. Those properties selling store lambs have benefited from a strong demand for store stock.
Sunshine hours have been lower than average, but temperatures were about average. Hay making has been difficult in most areas, so silage and haylage have been the made. A proportion of these hill country properties do not conserve much feed due to their steep topography. These properties have used extra pasture growth to improve stock weights.
Stock units in the model have increased by 468. The majority of this increase has been in restoring ewes and ewe hogget numbers. Ewes increased from 3,747 to 4,065. Hoggets have increased from 755 to 896 at year-end. Cattle numbers increased by only six as most farms sold more calves at high prices.
An average of $28,051 per farm has been spent restocking.
There were 307 ewes purchased by the average farmer in this model during the 1999/2000 year. Some ewes were purchased due to a change in ewe breed. Farmers in this model are moving from halfbred to perendale breeds.
A mixture of store lambs was sold earlier when dry conditions prevailed. However, over 60% of lambs in the model were sold to the works this year. This was exceptionally high.
Lambing, at an average of 113%, was very pleasing and was attributable to the excellent flush most ewes received last autumn, combined with good weather over lambing.
Wool weights and quality have generally improved, due to lower stocking rates allowing better per animal feeding. Wool weight increased from 4.22 kg/ssu to 4.49 kg/ssu.
Supplementary feed has been made, but not enough to fully restore feed buffers in most cases.
Cow numbers have declined as a consequence of drought over the past two years. Pregnancy rates were down in 1999 and many dry cows were sold. Lower cattle numbers over spring have resulted in better pregnancy rates this season, and heavier calf weights at weaning. High calf prices have been achieved in April/May 2000.
Stock are in good health going into winter 2000. However, fly strike has been an increasing problem on these properties. Humid conditions since January 2000 have intensified this problem. Farmers are being more proactive in dipping at the first sign of major flystrike outbreaks.
Ewe liveweights are above average at mating 2000. Farmers expect above average conception rates and predict this to carry through to a lambing percentage of 120%, well above last year's 113% result.
Hogget mating has been tried this year on some farms; this may be a response to lower ewe numbers rather than a long-term policy decision.
Wool weights are expected to be above average at 4.75 kg/ewe compared to last year at 4.5 kg/ewe, due to better feeding levels this season. Generally wool production is being considered less important than in the past, as farmers put more emphasis on lamb meat production.
Average lamb weights and prices are expected to be similar or slightly better in 2000/01. However, this dependent on average or better than average rainfall.
Cattle production is expected to rise as numbers are rebuilt. The current strong beef prices are expected to continue. Cattle are forecast to increase from 140 to 153 in the model, with cows increasing from 76 to 87.
Fertiliser inputs are up and along with better pasture and crop establishment, farmers expect this to result in better production next year.
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