Issues and Trends
The rainfall pattern for the past two seasons was characterised by short periods of heavy rain followed by extended periods with no significant falls. The heavy falls tend to run off and are less effective than rainfall records would suggest.
Although stock growth rates were poor during the dry summer of 1999/2000, the good conditions for pasture growth before and after more than compensated. Farmers are aware that dry summers tend to occur in cycles. While the two in a row are unusual in the context of the last decade, they are not so unusual when viewed against the 1960s and 1970s.
Farmers are contemplating ewe flock expansion in 2000/01 despite the extra stock work that this would entail. In part, this is an option to reduce exposure to beef market risk. A quiet revolution has been occurring on intensive sheep farms - high fertility breed crosses are now widespread. Many of these high fertility dams are then mated to a terminal sire for a three-way crossed lamb. Most of the surveyed farms do not castrate the male progeny. Overall, there has been a big productivity lift in intensive sheep systems. Further increases are possible through the effective use of lambing enhancers, which add up to 20% to lamb drop, though the stock policy should then be adjusted to reduce the ewes wintered so that the extra progeny get the feed they need to grow to their potential. Lambing date is under review as farmers look at ways of selling more of their finished lambs by Christmas. This trend is strongest amongst the summer-dry properties in Franklin, West Waikato and Coastal Bay of Plenty. Summer feed crops are also being considered on these properties.
Another surge in the number of calves reared is being indicated for the 2000 spring. With older cattle in short supply, the price of weaner calves in autumn 2000 increased rather than showing the usual dip. Many cattle finishers were caught napping by the rising trend in store prices, and aim to reduce this risk next year. While the price of four-day-old calves may limit best intentions to rear some extra calves, this trend will be significant and farmers will seek to buy early. Feeder calves are expected to rise in price by $30-$40/hd ($75-$80/hd) and three-four month dairy weaners are expected to be on a par with last spring ($300-$325/hd).
The Resource Management Act does not appear to be regarded as the big `ogre' it once was. Farmers have worked out the specific implications to their own business and have got on with the necessary adjustments. Similar reaction applies to the Occupational Safety and Health Act.
Farmers represented by this model have continued to embrace new technology with positive results. For example, the majority of surveyed farms use Androvax, while less than 5% of ewes nationally are treated.
While farmers welcomed the short-term benefits of the lower New Zealand dollar during their main selling period (January-June), they are apprehensive about the long-term impact of a weak dollar on items such as fuel, cartage, fertiliser and debt servicing. Many indicated that reducing short-term debt would be an on-going priority.
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Farm Monitoring Programme Manager
Monitoring and Evaluation
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0623
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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