Gross Agricultural Revenue and Expenditure

Baseline exchange rate scenario

Contribution to Gross Domestic Product is calculated as gross agricultural revenue at farmgate less intermediate consumption (farm/orchard expenditure on inputs, such as fencing wire). Over the outlook period gross agricultural revenue is projected to fall by $112 million (0.8 percent) from $14.8 billion in the year to March 2004 to $14.7 billion in 2007. Intermediate consumption is projected to fall by 2 percent from $7.24 billion to $7.10 billion.

As a result, agricultural sector contribution to GDP rises by 0.4 percent over the outlook period, from $7.54 billion to $7.57 billion.

The main changes in contribution to gross agricultural revenue over the outlook period from 2004 to 2007 are from:

  • dairy (down $394 million (8 percent)),
  • cattle (down $372 million (23 percent)),
  • sheep meat (up $358 million (21 percent)), and
  • fruit and nuts (up $287 (26 percent)).

In 2003/04 gross agricultural revenue declines by $1.39 billion (9 percent) from the previous year, to $14.9 billion. This is due to lower revenue for cattle (down $755 million), agricultural services (down $368 million) and sheep meat (down $291 million), offset by increased dairy revenue (up $307 million).

In 2004/05 further falls in revenue for cattle (down $314 million) and agricultural services (down $165 million), together with lower dairy revenue (down $379 million) result in gross agricultural revenue falling by a further $627 million (4 percent).

Gross agricultural revenue in 2005/06 declines by a further $384 million (3 percent), largely reflecting further declines in revenue for dairy (down $394 million), and cattle (down $129 million).

Gross agricultural revenue increases in 2006/07 by $899 million (7 percent) due to increases in revenue for most commodities, particularly dairy (up $379 million) and sheep meat (up $187 million), and a recovery in agricultural services (up $226 million).

High exchange rate scenario

Over the outlook period gross agricultural revenue falls by 6 percent from $14.8 billion in the year to March 2004 to $14.0 billion in 2007. Intermediate consumption falls by 7 percent from $7.24 billion to $6.76 billion. As a result, agricultural sector contribution to GDP falls by 4 percent over the outlook period, from $7.53 billion to $7.20 billion.

When compared with the baseline exchange rate scenario, the total gross agricultural sector revenues are lower by $198 million (1 percent) in 2004/05, $428 million (3 percent) in 2005/06, and $711 million (5 percent) in 2006/07.

Low exchange rate scenario

Over the outlook period gross agricultural revenue rises by 10 percent from $14.8 billion in the year to March 2004 to $16.3 billion in 2007. Intermediate consumption rises by 9 percent from $7.25 billion to $7.90 billion. As a result, agricultural sector contribution to GDP is 11 percent higher at the end of the outlook period, from $7.54 billion in 2004 to $8.40 billion in 2007.

When compared with the baseline exchange rate scenario, gross agricultural revenue is $275 million (2 percent) higher in 2004/05, $912 million (7 percent) higher in 2005/06, and $1.62 billion (11 percent) higher in 2006/07.

Compared with the high exchange rate scenario, gross agricultural revenue in the low exchange scenario is higher by $473 million (3 percent) in 2004/05, $1.34 billion (10 percent) in 2005/06, and $2.33 billion (17 percent) in 2006/07.

Table 28: Baseline gross agricultural revenue and expenditure

  (NZD million)
March year 2002e 2003p 2004z 2005z 2006z 2007z
Dairy 6,182 4,711 5,019 4,639 4,246 4,625
Cattle 2,139 2,337 1,582 1,268 1,139 1,211
Sheepmeat 1,940 2,024 1,733 1,762 1,905 2,092
Wool 664 707 602 612 636 673
Deer 205 196 157 169 176 178
Poultry and eggs 116 121 121 126 137 142
Pigs 167 162 161 165 172 177
Other farming 177 168 188 184 187 190
Sales of live animals 1,349 791 957 903 895 947
Value of livestock change 287 -16 3 160 41 -185
Fruit and nuts 1,193 1,283 1,124 1,216 1,271 1,412
Vegetables 712 761 779 727 751 776
Other horticulture 287 326 261 290 308 318
Crops and seeds 423 495 360 360 356 360
Agricultural services 2,043 1,899 1,531 1,366 1,340 1,539
Non-farm income 214 200 204 207 211 215
Total gross revenue 18,098 16,166 14,781 14,155 13,771 14,670
Intermediate consumption 8,424 8,082 7,243 6,855 6,669 7,104
Contribution to GDP 9,674 8,084 7,538 7,300 7,102 7,565
Wages 1,506 1,538 1,564 1,589 1,617 1,648
Depreciation 1,241 1,149 1,050 1,006 978 1,042
Indirect taxes 399 407 413 420 428 436
Subsidies 20 20 20 20 20 24
Operating surplus 6,548 5,011 4,531 4,305 4,098 4,463
Interest paid 446 487 430 471 496 496
Interest received 261 285 251 276 290 290
Agricultural sector income 6,363 4,809 4,353 4,110 3,893 4,257
             

Sources: Statistics New Zealand and MAF

Figures may not add or reconcile due to rounding.

Table 29: High scenario gross agricultural revenue and expenditure

  (NZD million)
March year 2001p 2002e 2003p 2004z 2005z 2006z 2007z
Dairy 5,028 6,182 4,711 5,019 4,587 4,127 4,355
Cattle 1,834 2,139 2,337 1,582 1,225 1,081 1,166
Sheepmeat 1,759 1,940 2,024 1,732 1,733 1,801 1,895
Wool 693 664 707 602 600 623 653
Deer 206 205 196 157 167 173 174
Poultry and eggs 95 116 121 121 126 137 142
Pigs 147 167 162 161 165 172 177
Other farming 198 177 168 188 183 187 189
Sales of live animals 1,149 1,349 791 957 886 857 897
Value of livestock change 365 287 -16 3 155 39 -179
Fruit and nuts 1,091 1,193 1,283 1,124 1,205 1,239 1,364
Vegetables 648 712 761 779 727 751 776
Other horticulture 281 287 326 261 290 308 318
Crops and seeds 335 423 495 360 353 340 352
Agricultural services 1,712 2,043 1,899 1,525 1,347 1,298 1,464
Non-farm income 194 214 200 204 207 211 215
Total gross revenue 15,735 18,098 16,166 14,773 13,957 13,343 13,959
Intermediate consumption 7,670 8,424 8,082 7,239 6,759 6,462 6,760
Contribution to GDP 8,065 9,674 8,084 7,534 7,198 6,881 7,199
Wages 1,404 1,506 1,538 1,564 1,589 1,617 1,648
Depreciation 1,163 1,241 1,149 1,050 992 948 992
Indirect taxes 388 399 407 413 420 428 436
Subsidies 20 20 20 20 20 20 24
Operating surplus 5,130 6,548 5,011 4,528 4,217 3,908 4,147
Interest paid 545 446 487 430 471 496 496
Interest received 319 261 285 251 276 290 290
Agricultural sector income 4,904 6,363 4,809 4,349 4,022 3,702 3,941

Sources: Statistics New Zealand and MAF

Figures may not add or reconcile due to rounding.

 

Table 30: Low scenario gross agricultural revenue and expenditure

  (NZD million)
March year 2002e 2003p 2004z 2005z 2006z 2007z
Dairy 6,182 4,711 5,020 4,720 4,639 5,565
Cattle 2,139 2,337 1,582 1,316 1,318 1,409
Sheepmeat 1,940 2,024 1,732 1,796 1,950 2,159
Wool 664 707 602 631 678 710
Deer 205 196 157 170 180 187
Poultry and eggs 116 121 121 126 137 142
Pigs 167 162 161 165 172 177
Other farming 177 168 188 184 189 191
Sales of live animals 1,349 791 957 923 955 1,020
Value of livestock change 287 -16 3 166 42 -218
Fruit and nuts 1,193 1,283 1,124 1,253 1,356 1,549
Vegetables 712 761 779 727 751 776
Other horticulture 287 326 261 290 308 318
Crops and seeds 423 495 360 363 367 376
Agricultural services 2,043 1,899 1,541 1,393 1,430 1,713
Non-farm income 214 200 204 207 211 215
Total gross revenue 18,098 16,166 14,791 14,430 14,683 16,290
Intermediate consumption 8,424 8,082 7,247 6,988 7,111 7,889
Contribution to GDP 9,674 8,084 7,543 7,442 7,572 8,401
Wages 1,506 1,538 1,564 1,589 1,617 1,648
Depreciation 1,241 1,149 1,051 1,025 1,043 1,157
Indirect taxes 399 407 413 420 428 436
Subsidies 20 20 20 20 20 24
Operating surplus 6,548 5,011 4,535 4,428 4,504 5,184
Interest paid 446 487 430 471 496 496
Interest received 261 285 251 276 290 290
Agricultural sector income 6,363 4,809 4,357 4,232 4,298 4,978

Sources: Statistics New Zealand and MAF

Figures may not add or reconcile due to rounding.

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