Situation and outlook for New Zealand agriculture and forestry (August 2007)
15 Deer
After several years of being in the doldrums, farm-gate prices for venison and velvet increased in the year ended 31 March 2007.
Venison prices have increased as the number of deer available for slaughter in New Zealand decreased and demand in Germany increased (see Figure 15.1). Over the past three years, deer farmers have destocked in response to low venison prices.
Figure 15.1: Venison export destinations, by value, year ended 31 March 2007
Source Statistics New Zealand.
Strong economic growth in South Korea led to increased demand for velvet, which in turn helped velvet prices recover (see Table 15.1).
Prices for New Zealand venison in international markets are expected to improve in response to the decrease in the supply of venison from New Zealand. Increases in farm-gate venison prices will remain gradual, with the New Zealand dollar expected to remain strong until the second half of 2008.
Table 15.1: Velvet and venison prices and volumes
| Actual | Forecast | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | ||
| Venison schedule price – AP stag1 (cents/kg) | 417 | 411 | 419 | 517 | 479 | 504 | 546 | 574 | |
| Velvet pool price2 ($/kg) | 59 | 44 | 47 | 105 | 103 | 101 | 99 | 97 | |
| Venison exports2 (000 t) | 20 | 25 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | |
Notes
1. Year to 30 June, 2007 figure is estimated.
2. Year to 31 March.
Source Statistics New Zealand and MAF.
Exports
Venison exports earned $260 million dollars in the year ended 31 March 2007. This was up 7 percent on the previous year, because of a big increase in prices.
In the year ending 31 March 2008, export earnings from venison are forecast to decrease 3 percent, because of a decrease in the volume of venison produced and exported. In the following years, the export value of venison is forecast to increase as the New Zealand dollar depreciates.
Production
The increase in farm-gate venison and velvet prices is expected to stabilise the size of the breeding hind herd at slightly less than 700 000 animals. Stabilising the deer herd at this size means the total number of deer slaughtered will fall to 465 000 in the year ending 30 June 2008, down from the peak of 738 000 in the year ended 30 June 2005.
The gradual nature of forecast increases in farm-gate venison prices is expected to discourage herds being rebuilt rapidly.
Contact for Enquiries
Manager
Monitoring and Evaluation
MAF Policy
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0623
Fax: +64 4 894 0741
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