Situation and Outlook for New Zealand Agriculture and Forestry (August 2008)
1 What’s behind the forecasts
Situation and Outlook for New Zealand Agriculture and Forestry (SONZAF) provides a picture of what the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) understands is happening across the various agricultural and forestry sectors within New Zealand. We look at some of the fundamental issues they face, now and in the future. By examining each sector individually, we predict the likely economic and market conditions between 2008 and 2012.
This analysis forms the core of our policy advice to Government. It’s also designed to provide a platform for informed debate about the future of New Zealand’s primary sectors. Participating in this debate is a broad range of people, including industry (from farmers, to processors, to exporters), regional and local government, and the public.
SONZAF is divided into two parts. In the first (Chapters 3 to 8), we examine concepts that will underpin our success in the future. This year’s publication includes discussion of the recent New Zealand–China Free Trade Agreement and looks at our changing climate and why this could lead to more frequent droughts.
The forecasting chapters (9 to 19) provide a summary of the key measures used to form our view. The bulk of the goods produced by New Zealand’s primary sectors are sold offshore. SONZAF looks at the movement of international prices over recent years and what is likely to happen up to five years from now. Similarly, export volumes and values are analysed over these periods. Finally, production trends, such as an increase in herd size, provide context for the forecasts reached.
The drivers used to determine what’s happening in the agricultural and forestry sectors include international demand and supply, weather conditions, non-economic incentives and patterns of rural life. We also take into account the effects of animal disease and international agricultural policies in important economies such as the European Union (EU) and the United States (US).
MAF’s forecasting is rigorous, but no forecasting is absolute. Our assumptions are for “normal” climatic conditions and don’t allow for natural disasters on a domestic or world scale nor major economic changes. The Treasury’s exchange rate assumptions from the 2008 Budget are used in this publication. However, it should be noted exchange rates are subject to change. Other variables that may affect the outlook are sudden shifts in policy by our international trading partners.
There’s more online
More detailed statistical tables are also accessible via: http://www.maf.govt.nz/SONZAF-tables
For further information on topics such as livestock slaughter, forestry and trade, try: http://www.maf.govt.nz/statistics/
Feedback
This is the second year SONZAF has been published in this format and we’d like to find out what you think, what you find useful and how we could improve future editions.
Feedback can be submitted online by using the link: http://www.maf.govt.nz/SONZAF/feedback.htm
Contact for Enquiries
Monitoring and Evaluation
PO Box 2526
Wellington
New Zealand
