Situation and Outlook for New Zealand Agriculture and Forestry (August 2008)
15 Deer
A second year of rising schedule prices for venison will see deer farmers receive their best returns in six years when adjusted for inflation.
New Zealand’s deer industry is highly cyclical. When prices are low, breeding stock tends to be slaughtered, which puts even more downward pressure on prices. This was the situation between 2004 and 2006, when our main venison market, Germany, had venison in abundance. Currently, with improving prices, the cycle is reversing: slaughter rates are down and venison supplies are tight.
Prices for New Zealand venison in Europe are forecast to remain strong as supply, especially from New Zealand, is constricted. The assumed depreciation of the New Zealand dollar implies further increases in venison schedule prices.
New Zealand velvet prices have slipped well below the favourable prices of 2007. This is due in part to a downturn in South Korea, our largest export market for velvet.
Exports
Venison export revenue fell slightly from last year’s high to $256 million for the year ended 31 March 2008. Export volumes for the same period dropped 17 percent to 21 000 tonnes.
Strong venison prices and a depreciating New Zealand dollar will contribute to better export earnings for the year ending 31 March 2009. Venison export volumes are forecast to decrease slightly due to fewer deer available for slaughter.
Table 15.1: Velvet and venison export prices, volumes and value, 2005–2012
| Actual | Forecast | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
| Venison schedule price – AP Stag1 (cents/kg) | 429 | 413 | 513 | 649 | 702 | 670 | 626 | 603 |
| Velvet pool price2 ($/kg) | 44 | 47 | 95 | 75 | 74 | 79 | 85 | 90 |
| Venison export volume2 (000 tonnes) | 25 | 27 | 25 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 24 |
| Venison value2 ($ mil) | 199 | 213 | 260 | 256 | 292 | 314 | 345 | 381 |
Notes
1. Year to 30 June. 2008 figure is estimated.
2. Year to 31 March.
Sources Statistics New Zealand, Agri-Fax and MAF.
Production
Deer numbers have fallen to a 9-year low after two dry summers and a slow recovery of prices. Since its peak in 2004, the total deer herd has shrunk 26 percent. As at 30 June 2007, 58 000 fewer deer were mated than the previous year. This will mean a further decline in the number of fawns born in 2008. However, breeding hind numbers are expected to rebuild gradually from 2008 in response to higher schedule prices.
Production is forecast to drop for the year ending 30 June 2009 as fewer deer are slaughtered and herds are slowly rebuilt.
Figure 15.1: Venison export destinations, by value, year ended 31 March 2008
Source Statistics New Zealand.
Contact for Enquiries
Monitoring and Evaluation
PO Box 2526
Wellington
New Zealand
