2.0 Pastoral Agriculture
2.1 Livestock Numbers
The provisional results from the 2002 Agricultural Production Census had some surprises with sheep, beef cattle and deer numbers lower than previously thought, and dairy numbers higher. This has meant some adjustments to livestock numbers, both estimated for earlier years and over the outlook period. The last two occasions when livestock statistics were collected by SNZ were as at June 1999 and June 1996. Both of these were surveys with the last census in June 1994. The final numbers from the June 2002 census will be progressively released from 28 May to the end of June.
The provisional sheep numbers from the census of 30 June 2002 are 39.2 million, down 14% on that reported in the June 1999 Agricultural Production Survey (APS). This reflects continued land use conversion to dairy, particularly in the South Island, and the increasing requirement for land for the grazing of non-milking dairy cattle, which in turn reflects land use conversions to deer and forestry. Sheep numbers are expected to fall to 38.6 million by June 2007, due to continued land use changes to dairy, deer, and forestry.
The provisional beef cattle numbers from the census of 30 June 2002 are 4.48 million, down 3.5% on that reported in the June 1999 APS. This reflects land use charges to dairy in particular and grazing demand for non-milking dairy cattle. At June 2007, beef cattle numbers are projected to be 3.76 million due largely to declining beef prices.
The provisional farmed deer numbers from the census of 30 June 2002 are 1.66 million, slightly down on that reported in the June 1999 APS. This fall is not supported by anecdotal evidence. Assessing the historical trend we have assumed that the 1999 survey result is on the high side, and for forecasting purposes we have adjusted this down. At June 2007, total deer numbers are projected to rise to 2.06 million.
The provisional dairy cattle numbers from the census of 30 June 2002 are 5.32 million, up about one million or 23% on that reported in the June 1999 APS. The provisional numbers of dairy cows and heifers in calf or in milk at June 2002 are 3.95 million. About half of the increase since 1999 is thought to have occurred in the South Island. The national milking herd is projected to be 4.28 million by June 2007 with total dairy cattle numbers projected at 5.76 million.
The trends in stock units for sheep, dairy, beef and deer from June 1995 to June 2007 are set out in Figure 4.1
1 Stock Unit (SU) coefficients used for national purposes are based on the following: breeding ewe = 1.0 SU, breeding hind = 1.9 SU, beef breeding cow = 5.5 SU, and dairy cow = 7.0 SU.
Contact for further information:
Rod Forbes
Phone: (04) 474 4222
Email: rod.forbes@maf.govt.nz
