2.4 Deer
Venison
The provisional farmed deer numbers from the census of 30 June 2002 were 1.66 million. MAF Policy estimates that this is a 6.9% increase on the previous year. Total deer numbers are projected to rise to 2.06 million as at June 2007.
Venison production continues to grow at a steady rate. It is dependent on the dynamics of herd growth, and any major change in hind retention impacts on venison production. Production for year ending June 2003 is estimated to be 28,080 tonnes, up 11% on the previous year.
New Zealand's position as the world's largest producer and exporter of farmed venison means that changes in production have a substantial impact on market returns. Around 90% of New Zealand's venison exports go to Europe, with Germany taking over 50% of total exports.
European consumer concerns about BSE in cattle and the outbreak of FMD in the UK resulted in European demand for venison firming during the year ended June 2002.. The resulting venison prices (in real terms) paid to New Zealand farmers for the year to June 2002 reached their highest level since 1990. However, this trend has reversed sharply during the current year with prices over the first nine months of the 2003 June year falling to their lowest level in four years. Much of this fall is attributed to consumer resistance to the high venison prices, falling pork prices, increasing demand for beef as concerns over possible health risks from BSE diminish and a fall in private consumption expenditure, especially in Germany.
Venison prices to New Zealand farmers were estimated at $8.07/kg for the year ended June 2002, while prices for the 2003 June year are estimated to almost halve to around $4.59/kg. Assuming no abrupt increase in New Zealand supply, venison prices (AP2 stags) are projected to recover from their current very low levels to $6.39/kg in year ended June 2008.
Velvet
As velveting stag numbers continue to grow so too will velvet production. New Zealand velvet returns are highly dependent on prices received in the ROK, where most of New Zealand's production is sold. Velvet prices have remained relatively steady during in June year 2003 due mainly to lower supplies following the ban on imports of Canadian velvet. This ban resulted from Korean concerns over chronic wasting disease affecting some Canadian Elk herds, which is now detected in some Korean deer.
Over the forecast period, returns from the ROK are expected to ease as supplies increase. Velvet prices depend on economic conditions in the ROK, international supply, and currency movements. The raising of consumer awareness of New Zealand velvet quality in the ROK should also help. Velvet prices to New Zealand farmers are estimated at $95/kg for year ending June 2003 and to decline in subsequent years with $80/kg projected for June year 2008.
Contact for further information:
Elaine Pearse
Phone: (04) 498 9847
Email: elaine.pearse@maf.govt.nz
