4.0 Pastoral and Horticultural Exports
Based on the projections of key product prices and supply responses, Table 3 sets out the expected pastoral and horticultural exports for years ending March 2004 to 2008. Pastoral export value is provisionally estimated to fall to $12.2 billion for year ending March 2003, largely due to both international price and exchange rate impacts. Pastoral export value is projected to rise to $13.3 billion by March year 2008, due to rising dairy volumes and prices.
Comparing pastoral export values for year ending March 2008 to year ended March 2003:
- meat is projected to fall 14% due to falling prices
- wool to rise 4.9% due to rising prices
- dairy to rise 27% due to rising prices and volumes.
Horticultural export value is provisionally estimated to fall 1.1% to $2.09 billion for year ending March 2003, mainly reflecting a fall in value of most products but moderated by rises for wine and apples. Horticultural export value is projected to reach $2.83 billion by March year 2008, largely reflecting growth in wine and kiwifruit volumes. In value terms, wine exports are projected to surpass apple exports in March year 2005 and be close to kiwifruit exports in 2008.
Comparing horticultural export values for year ending March 2008 to year ending March 2003:
- Kiwifruit is projected to rise 30% due to rising volumes
- apples to rise 10% due to rising volumes
- wine to rise 163% due to rising volumes.
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Contact for further information:
Rod Forbes
Phone: (04) 474 4222
Email: rod.forbes@maf.govt.nz
