Other Research Needs
We have identified the ongoing development of measurement technology and modeling capability as two research areas that are critical to a research programme on emission abatement technology: the demonstration of the impact of the future adoption of abatement technologies; and systems and the use of decision-support systems by farmers.
Measurement of Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions
Research on measurement technology has been driven, and will continue to be driven, by the need to report on New Zealand's emissions (Chapter 5). There is an ongoing need to refine emission factors appropriate to New Zealand conditions through models that are used to estimate emissions at an animal or farm-scale. However, the inherent variation in the biological processes that produce methane and nitrous oxide will dictate the level of accuracy of measurement that should be sought and the level of uncertainty around any measurements made. Thus the level of investment in measurement technology should be dictated by a pragmatic assessment of the minimum level of uncertainty that can be obtained.
Verification of the expected impacts of the adoption of abatement measures is likely to depend on modeling estimates at a farm-scale. We question whether direct measurement with micrometeorological techniques at this scale will ever yield the technical simplicity or level of accuracy that might have practical value. We consider that such techniques are likely to be more useful for measurements at a district or regional scale. However, we note that meteorological measurements at a regional or national scale can not distinguish between gases emitted by anthropogenic and natural sources or between indigenous and imported gases at present. They may therefore have limited utility as a verification tool.
Modeling Capability
We have noted that there are a range of models that are being adapted for greenhouse gas work, most being adaptations of models that have been developed for other purposes. We foresee that need for models and modeling capability for the following purposes:
- Inventory models that include Tier 2 emission factors as appropriate.
- Models to be used in scenario analysis to identify and assess research opportunities and evaluate research data. This implies an ongoing cycle of "model-analyse-design-input-empirical data".
- Decision-support models to be used by farmers and planners for evaluation and implementation of abatement technologies.
- These are not necessarily different models because there will be a continuity of logic and data used. We consider the key issues to be:
- Selection of the models to be used with effort concentrated on the selected few.
- Alignment of modeling capability, with the empirical research being done in a manner to facilitate close and frequent communication between modelers and researchers.
| We recommend, in the interests of getting people with modeling skills in universities, research institutes and the private sector working to a common purpose, that a Workshop be held for the purpose of defining what is needed and who is going to do it. |
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