- 1.1 INTRODUCTION
- 1.2 PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES
- 1.3 STUDY OUTLINE
- 1.4 GOVERNMENT POLICIES ON GREENHOUSE GASES
GOVERNMENT POLICIES FOR REDUCTIONS IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
1.1 INTRODUCTION
Nimmo-Bell & Company Ltd (NBL) submitted a proposal to MAF Rural Policy on 14 August 1992 to analyze the impact on agriculture of policies for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The proposal was a joint venture with the National Institute for Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWAR) and Connell Wagner Rankine & Hill Ltd (CWRH). This bid was accepted by the MAF Policy Research Coordination Committee subject to further discussion and refining of the project description including time budget.
The revised proposal addressed the issues raised in the letter confirming acceptance of the bid from MAF Rural Policy to Nimmo-Bell & Company Ltd dated 30 September 1992. The project description was set out in three segments.
1.2 PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES
The study segments are as follows. The first is the impact of reducing C02 emissions by 15% (the Rio commitment). the second is to reduce C02emissions by 35% (the so-called least cost measures), and the third is to assess the impact on agriculture of possible policies on reducing methane emissions.
1.2.1 Return C02 Emissions to 1990 Levels by 2000: The 15% Reduction Scenario
To evaluate the impacts on agriculture, from a cost benefit point of view, the current Government proposals to reduce carbon dioxide emissions:
- The "New Actions" proposals as set out on page 1 of the attachment to Mr Storey's press release dated 5 July 1992, headed "C02 REDUCTION ACTION PROGRAMME". These amount to an estimated 2% of 1990 levels by the year 2000.
- Actions already committed by Government which are estimated to achieve a 0.5-1.0% reduction.
| Note: | 1 | Increased use of CNG and LPG could reduce emissions by 1.0% by 2000. |
| 2 | East Coast Forestry Project plantings are expected to contribute a 3.0% | |
| equivalent reduction in emissions and private plantings a further 7.0-14.0%. |
In summary:
Reductions as a % of 1990 emissions
| Already committed | 0.5- 1.0 |
| New Actions | 2.0 |
| CNG & LPG | 1.0 |
| East Coast Forest Project | 3.0 |
| Private Forests | 7.0-14.0 |
| TOTAL | 13.5-21.0 |
Business As Usual (BAU) is likely to increase emissions by about 15% by 2000. Thus the above savings could be expected to result in a return to emission levels of about those in 1990 by the year 2000. This is the commitment entered into by Mr Storey in Rio.
1.2.2 ReduceC02Emissions to 20% below 1990 levels: The 35% Reduction Scenario
Undertake a smaller but indicative cost-benefit study of the impacts on agriculture of the policies implied by the 35% carbon dioxide reduction scenario from the BAU scenario. It anticipates further international obligations likely to be negotiated in the future and is in line with the "Toronto Target which seeks to reduce emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by the year 2005.
The team is to be guided by the additional actions listed by the Ministry of Environment as least cost measures with this objective in mind.
1.2.3 Methane Emissions
Study methane emissions in general as well as those from agriculture in particular.
This study assesses the current state of knowledge of methane emissions and, where possible, evaluates the practicality of the various potential options in New Zealand in consultation with MAR
The study also suggests strategic positions the Ministry could adopt in dealing with deliberations with other agencies.
It should be noted that this study is about the assessment of the impacts on agriculture of policies to reduce or absorb GHG emissions. It is not about the possible impacts on agriculture of climate change due to GHG emissions. But nonetheless, the report does refer to the impacts as background to the central focus. The assumption is made that climate is unlikely to change significantly over the period of analysis (30 years). However, it should be noted that the likelihood of extreme events may rise as atmospheric CO2 increases. Research is required to determine the extent of such events as the implications of these forecasts is critical to all "effects" research (Adams, 1991).
While it is assumed there will be no significant climate impact on agriculture in New Zealand over the study period of 30 years, the team is guided by IPCC scenario IS92a (mid range world economic growth) in assessing the extent of global warming.
1.3 STUDY OUTLINE
The study report is set out under the following headings:
- Government policy on Greenhouse Gases
- Review of New Zealand and IPCC scenarios for GHG emissions and review of agricultural sources and sinks of C02
- Costs and benefits to agriculture of the GHG reduction policies
- Social and environmental impacts
- Agricultural methane emissions.
1.4 GOVERNMENT POLICIES ON GREENHOUSE GASES
Government policy on Greenhouse gas reductions envisages a mix of activities aimed at both emissions reductions and absorbtion of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Estimates of the impact of the activities indicates that most of the benefit is expected to come from the absorbtion area, and in particular, from the planting of pine forests.
While the measures range from "no regrets" to "least cost there is no known assessment of the benefits and cost of implementing the policies. This is of serious concern as implementing the policies could be irrational if the resulting cost benefit ratio is below unity (Reynolds, 1992).
Known details of the policies as at the end of February 1993 are provided in Appendix 1.
In summary, the policies can be broken down into the following areas. The letters refer to the policies approved by the Government.
1.4.1 Measures Aimed at Stabilising C02 Emissions at 1990 Levels by the Year 2000 (15% reduction)
Group I
Actions already committed
| c.i | Improved regional transport strategies |
| c.ii | Regional petrol tax |
| c.iii | Transit NZ decision making on funding |
| c.iv | Tougher speed limit enforcement |
| C.V | Publicity on driving to reduce fuel use |
| c.vi | Development of Resource Management Act guidelines |
| c.vii | Electricity industry reforms |
Further Actions to be investigated
| d.i | Land transport pricing study |
| d.ii | Improve vehicle fuel economy |
| d.iii | Increase CNG/LPG fuel consumption share |
Work to Increase CO2 Absorbtion
| e.i | Removal of legal/administrative constraints to forestry |
| e.ii | East Coast Land Management Planting |
| e.iii | Revegetation and protection from pests |
Group 11
Proposed Actions
| g | CEO performance agreements |
| j | Clarify S140 of the Resource Management Act |
| k | Removal of specific barriers to energy efficiency in the public sector |
| 1 | Assessment of energy labelling |
| m | Investigate measures to raise voluntary commitment to reduce emissions - |
| the "CO2 Partnership Programme" | |
| n | Initiatives to overcome barriers to energy efficiency |
1.4.2 Measures to Achieve FurtherC02Emissions Reductions in the Least Costly Way
(35% reduction)
Group III
Least Cost Measures
| 0 | Report on opportunities for renewable energy policies |
| p | Note greater certainty on energy policy would help economic growth |
| q | Investigation of taxes and incentives to reduce emissions and increase |
| absorbtion of C02 | |
| r | Review of price structures on fossil fuels and electricity |
| S | OCEP to develop a future work programme to reduce emissions and |
| increase absorbtion | |
| t | MoRST to consider need for further research |
| U | Officials to identify scope for further carbon sink enhancement |
| v | Investigate least cost measures for reduction in methane emissions |
Group IV
Monitoring of Progress Towards C02 Goals
| W | MoF keep records for sources and sinks |
| X | Note need for ongoing research |
| y | Government departments to collect and supply inventory data on sources and sinks |
| z | Officials to report on funding needs including a levy on energy use to meet these needs. |
| © MAF 1993 |  |
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