- What is Climate Change?
- International Agreements
- New Zealand and the Kyoto Protocol
- The Government Process and Timeline
INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
What is Climate Change?
Our atmosphere contains concentrations of so called "greenhouse gases" (GHGs) such as CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride. These gases act like a blanket that keeps in some of the sun's warmth, making life on earth possible. The blanket is getting "thicker" - especially from CO2 emitted from the burning of fossil fuels like coal, petrol and gas, and other sources (such as clearing of forests for another land use). The effect of this thicker blanket of CO2 is to trap heat closer to the Earth's surface which is expected to lead to an overall increase in temperature. In turn, this is expected to lead to changes in the Earth's climate, commonly referred to as "climate change" or "global warming."
A number of possible impacts of climate change have been identified. The main impacts are predicted to be temperature increases, sea-level rise, changes to rainfall patterns and increased frequency of extreme weather events. For further information on the effects of climate change, a Climate Change Impacts on New Zealand report will be available at www.climatechange.govt.nz
International Agreements
Two important international agreements deal with the threat of global climate change; the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the Convention) negotiated by the world's nations in 1992, and the Kyoto Protocol, a further agreement negotiated in accordance with the Convention in 1997.
The objective of the Convention is to stabilise GHG concentrations at a level that avoids dangerous human interference with the climate system. New Zealand is one of 180 countries to have signed and ratified the Convention. All developed countries that ratified the Convention agreed to non-binding targets to return GHG emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000.
The Convention was designed so that it could be developed further by countries as new scientific knowledge came forward. In December 1997, in Kyoto, Japan, New Zealand and other countries signed a legally binding international agreement to reduce emissions of GHGs. The Kyoto Protocol was in response to new scientific evidence suggesting the original emission reduction targets under the Convention would not be sufficient to achieve its objective and that tougher legally binding targets were required. The Kyoto Protocol:
- sets legally binding GHG emissions targets for New Zealand based on its 1990 GHG
- emissions. New Zealand's target is to return emissions to 1990 levels, or "take
- responsibility" for any emissions above that level if it can't;
- requires "demonstrable progress" towards meeting its commitments by 2005;
- only comes into force when 55 countries, representing 55 percent of total developed
- country CO2 emissions in 1990, have ratified and signed the Kyoto Protocol; and
- provides flexible means for countries to take responsibility for their emissions (including use of sinks and international emissions trading).
The Protocol has yet to be ratified by any nation which has legal obligations under it and is considered by New Zealand to be not yet ratifiable.
International negotiations are proceeding, notably at meetings in July and November of this year, though they remain clouded by uncertainty over the position of the United States.
New Zealand and the Kyoto Protocol
The Government aims to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in 2002 and has said that it wants New Zealand to be, and to be seen to be, an environmentally responsible world citizen. In New Zealand, the Government's intention is to have the means to implement our commitments in place, such as appropriate legislation, prior to ratification.
The key climate change issue facing this country is our significant increase in CO2 emissions since 1990 (about 20 percent by 2000 and projected to be 40 percent by 2010). If New Zealanders continue with "business as usual", our greenhouse gas emissions will continue to grow and will be more costly and difficult to deal with by the time our emissions would be subject to our Kyoto Protocol target in the period 2008-2012. According to forecasts, and assuming business as usual i.e. no additional measures being taken to reduce emissions, New Zealand's emissions will exceed its Kyoto Protocol allowance of GHG emissions or "initial Assigned Amount" in the commitment period (its 1990 emissions level) by about 50 million tonnes of CO2.
Diagram 1 shows New Zealand's GHG emissions allowance for the period 2008-2012 (represented by the area "New Zealand's Initial Assigned Amount"). This box represents around 363 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. A projected business as usual line tracks above New Zealand's emissions allowance for the first commitment period. This shows that New Zealand, without a response that encourages reductions in emissions, would emit GHG's in excess of its commitment (areas A + B).
With a robust programme, cost effective reductions in emissions would occur, represented by area A.
However, this still leaves area B for which New Zealand must take responsibility. This diagram does not include sinks.
Diagram 1 New Zealand's Emissions Obligation
The Protocol does not necessarily require New Zealand to reduce its emissions to 1990
levels. New Zealand also has the option of purchasing emission units on international markets to offset any excess. Reducing emissions and purchasing further emissions units both involve a cost, but by being able to choose which of these options to take, New Zealand can lower the cost of complying with the Kyoto Protocol. Emission units purchased by New Zealand represent a GHG emission that would have otherwise occurred in other countries, or verified increases of the carbon accumulated in qualifying forest sinks, so that the global amount of net emissions remains unchanged because of offsetting removals of CO2 from the atmosphere.
One option for countries to meet their commitments is through "sink credits". The Kyoto
Protocol provides a basic framework for the inclusion of carbon sinks in meeting emissions commitments. While emissions increase the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs such as CO2, sinks have the opposite effect by absorbing CO2.
Verified carbon sequestration (absorption) from sinks can therefore be used to offset emissions. As will be discussed later, international rules around the details of how sinks are to be included in the Kyoto Protocol are yet to be finalised. However, work can still proceed on how a sinks trading system might operate domestically.
The Government Process and Timeline
Climate change policy is the responsibility of a group of Ministers convened by the Minister of Energy, and Minister of Forestry, Hon Pete Hodgson. Policy advice is provided through government departments and agencies by officials' working groups.
The Government aims to make decisions in principle on details of New Zealand's domestic policy response to climate change later this year.
This information document on sinks is part of the process of engaging the forest sector and other interested parties on forestry sink issues. A second, more comprehensive discussion document, detailing "in principle" policy decisions on sinks, is envisaged for later in the year. The Government has already made a number of preliminary decisions relating to sinks -these are set out later in this document.
The Government is also planning to release a public discussion document on Emissions Trading later this year.
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