Appendix 4: Summary of key social impacts studies

A4.1 Assessing the social impacts of irrigation - A framework based on New Zealand cases

Paper presented to the International Association for Impact Assessment Annual Meeting, Marrakech. Morocco, 17 – 20 June 2003

Authors: Nick Taylor (Taylor Baines and Associates)

Wayne McClintock (Taylor Baines and Associates)

Heather McCrostie-Little (Ruris)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS

Throughout recorded history there have repeated examples of how irrigation can transform society as well as land and landscapes. New Zealand is no exception to this rule, with large areas of agricultural land in the east of both main islands being brought into sustained production. These areas have traditionally suffered from severe soil moisture deficits during summer, and periodic droughts.

Assessing the impact of irrigation development is a complex task, as it involves not only changes to the physical landscape and farming practices but also to the social fabric of community life. The social impact of irrigation has generally received less attention in the literature than the physical changes to land use and farming practices; yet the implications can be significant, and far reaching. Taylor (et. al) have expertise in social impact assessment and have focused their attention on developing a framework for assessing the community impacts of irrigation. The framework is based on an analysis of ex-post and ex-ante studies of irrigation projects in New Zealand.

The authors produced a model of the social changes that have occurred in eastern parts of the South Island that have been affected by irrigation. The model shows that there are waves of land use change, which are accompanied by changes in farm ownership, composition of the workforce, and the demographic profile of the population. The model was supported by re-worked Census data (i.e., on labour composition, incomes and age structure), Ministry of Education enrolment data and business data from the New Zealand Business Directory.

The model highlights that the social impacts of irrigation will vary over the life cycle of the project (from initial planning and construction through to the project being an embedded part of the community). This means that communities can experience structural and demographic change for an extended period, potentially more than a generation.

The analysis also highlights that irrigation developments will have implications for water quality, water-based recreation and visual amenity (i.e., the construction of canals and reservoirs). Changes to amenity and recreational values occur gradually with irrigation projects but have significant implications for the social life (cohesion) of communities, and the recreational attraction of areas (i.e., for fresh water anglers).

The overall conclusion of this study is that a social impact framework provides a critical assessment of the costs and benefits of irrigation. It examines irrigation from a community change perspective and it incorporates on-going social monitoring.

A4.2 Social and economic impacts associated with irrigated land use change

Author: McCrostie-Little and Taylor 2001.

Irrigation Creates Social Change. It changes landscape and has psychological effects on farm families’ sense of security.

Irrigation brings land use change and younger or differently skilled farming families. This affects the social structure of the hinterland as well as rural settlements and small towns. It affects work patterns and social interactions.

After a period of Central Government sponsorship, up until the early 1980s, economic conditions and government policy saw regional irrigation schemes sold back to their communities. Local leaders have emerged to take on the planning, funding and commission of existing and new schemes.

The withdrawal of Government funding meant new on-farm development was delayed because of the capital outlay required in buying the scheme. Lack of development money is one of the reasons that farm ownership changes as a direct result of irrigation establishment.

Change of ownership can come in waves.

The population growth in irrigated areas is significant compared to the non-irrigated. Conversion from dryland sheep farming to dairying affects the age structure of the community. In Amuri there was an increase in younger to mid-life males and fewer in the over 60-year-old cohort and the school roll increased by 150%.

Contractors, farm workers and agricultural servicing agencies need to gain new skills and training is not always easily available.

A4.3 Economic and social assessment of community irrigation projects

Author: Stuart Ford, MAF Technical Paper 2002/13 December 2002.

This Paper is one of a series, jointly funded by MAF Policy, commissioned to investigate impediments and opportunities for the development of large scale water enhancement projects, in New Zealand, with a primary focus of providing water for community irrigation schemes.

The identification of economic returns from a national, regional and individual viewpoint and the social changes that may occur with community irrigation development was the overall objective of the study. It was identified that there is a need to establish a range of tools to determine parameter values for the assessment of irrigation schemes; it was possible to include them in a framework, but not in one overall benefit assessment. Social impacts do not provide quantitative data suitable for extrapolation into other project areas.

The framework and assessment parameters identified and included were:

· Commercial viability
· Economic contribution
· Social impact

Commercial viability is primarily the interest of farmers and scheme promoters. Central and Local Government and the community or stakeholder interests are mainly interested in the economic and social impacts of any scheme. The social impact grouping was mainly interested in population and occupation trends, employment type, income status and services and community.

Assessment parameter values require the development of economic and social models in order to calculate impacts. The models often are required at a very early stage of the proposal development and therefore need to be based on incomplete or assumed information. These assumptions should be made explicit in the reporting process and include; land use change, timing and location of impacts, basis of analysis and incorporation of change, community bench marking, averaging, and price series.

The parameter values established in this report have been tested and proved in a real scheme analysis on an ex-post basis on the Lower Waitaki Plains Irrigation Scheme. Both economic and social analysis has been compared between the above irrigation development and an area that does not have a community irrigation scheme (based upon development in the Rangitata area).

Within the Social Results, population and occupation trends, employment, income and quantitative analysis are reviewed. It was reported "the standard parameter values could not be considered a substitute for detailed modelling and assessment of individual irrigation scheme impacts they could have a place in determining "in the order of impacts for schemes in their very early investigation stages".

A good bibliography is included with the report.

A4.4 Water in New Zealand agriculture resilience and growth

Authors: Matthew Morgan; Simon Harris; Willie Smith 4 June 2003.

"This study was designed to explore the environmental, economic and social impacts of water use on New Zealand agriculture."

It has been designed to predict the impacts of water use on agriculture in terms of the benefits and costs to the environment, economy and society and as such explores 4 different scenarios covering a range of assumptions to provide different conditions

Generally:

A A baseline scenario projecting land use in 2021. Assuming current conditions in water management, and demonstrating the impact of agriculture and irrigation under current water management and therefore providing a baseline upon which other possibilities could be assessed.

B Assessing project impacts of water use in 2021 assuming increased standards for receiving ground and surface water quality.

C Addressing institutional, capital and planning barriers. Projects potential irrigation development by 2021 given a strategic approach to water management…with a wide suite of conditions…

D Encompassing all potentially irrigable land that can be developed.

The geographical regions of New Zealand were divided into two groups based on what were viewed as the key drivers of land use change.

(a) Regions where land use change is driven by market forces and constrained by access to water, e.g., East Coast regions, typically drier.

(b) Regions where land use change is driven only by market forces, e.g., conversion to dairying would occur without access to irrigation.

Analysis of the economic impact of irrigation highlights the immense variation between urban and rural with respect to GDP and agricultural (land based) activities. Primary production is an important component of regional economies. Nationally agriculture and forestry amount to approximately 7% GDP, where as Auckland and Wellington is less at 1%-2%. Canterbury and Waikato, for example are more dependent on agriculture with 7% and 14 % respectively. Water policy decisions for agriculture have a disproportionate regional impact.

The social indicators include population structure, farm numbers, number of schools (schools are commonly recognised as the social centre/focal point of interaction in rural New Zealand) and number of sports clubs as measures of community vitality and well being.

It is explained, in the Executive Summary, that the social implications of a change in water management are many, complex and interrelated. As water use increases, the number of farms increases and the rural population will climb; as a result of population increases, community interaction increases, school numbers will grow etc. Productivity of farms will be boosted as will increased spending in rural centres; a rise in the skill base of the community and higher employment levels…a larger labour force.

The social implications of change

Water in any form is fundamental to settlement, social, and economic development in New Zealand. The increased inter-dependence of economic, environmental indicators all contribute directly or indirectly to our understanding of social issues in terms of such factors as the availability of water for domestic supply, irrigation, land use intensification, job creation and minimisation of production risks.

The concept of healthy communities and social wellbeing and their link to water - in particular irrigation - identified four indicators of major significance. The existence of neighbouring farms (the community); the retention of a balanced population structure; the retention of a primary school roll (young family retention and social activities to attract all farm families); and the existence of sports clubs (watch and support).

A4.5 Central Plains Water Enhancement: Economic and social impact of proposed irrigation schemes

Authors: Agriculture New Zealand, Butcher Partners, Harris Consulting Resource

Economists, and Taylor Baines.

An initial study of the potential regional economic benefits of a proposed community irrigation scheme in Canterbury (between the Waimakariri and Rakaia Rivers). The significance of current irrigation to the Canterbury economy, the situation of agriculture in Canterbury and the outlines of the state of irrigation proposals under consideration are reviewed.

Land under irrigation in this region has doubled every decade over the past 50 years. The advent of community irrigation schemes during the 1950s-1970s, representing approximately 30% of the irrigated land area, was dominated by border-dyking. Farmers who have historically taken up water in these schemes have only slowly intensified their livestock farming systems. Significant private irrigation has also been carried out based upon both surface and groundwater sources. The profitability of dairying over the past 15 years has driven land use change and, in some areas, is by far the dominant land use.

The recent trend has been for water to be provided at a much higher cost and for there to be an accelerated trend in intensification and changes of land use to higher return options. Estimates of current land use is estimated to be 34% dairying, 36% other livestock, 27% arable, and the balance 3% horticultural, viticulture and market gardening options.

The four scenarios investigated under possible irrigation development are:

Changes in intermediate future based on current economics and capacity for cultural and ownership change (likely short term and high productivity).
An extrapolation of current trends (dairying country).
A future where the geopolitical climate has changed (fruit and vegetable bowl).
A very high technology future (biological enterprises).

The scenarios developed show a range of possible impacts arising from irrigation, but it is likely the actual outcome will be a mix of the above, reflecting changes in market conditions over time.

Land use (HECTARES) by scenario
Land use	Present	Likely Short Term	Dairy	Fruit & Vegetable Bowl	Biological Enterprise
Dairy	0	76,089	148,939	76,089	76,089
Dairy Support	0		37,235	0	0
Sheep	118,126	41,218	0	41,218	41,218
Beef	17,908	15,638	0	15,638	15,638
Deer	7,903	19,232	0	19,232	19,232
Arable	45,086	32,819	0	0	15,083
Process Crop	4,214	6,253	6,253	14,087	12,583
Horticulture	0	1,177	0	26,161	12,583
TOTAL	192,427	192,427	192,427	192,427	192,427

Farm budgets were developed for each land use and incorporated into models to estimate multipliers and regional impacts of irrigation development (including flow-on) for farm businesses including, labour and employment, expenditure, and social impacts, all of which have been reviewed.

Social Issues

The Social impacts of irrigation are addressed in Chapter 7: "Water can transform the land. Its introduction into farming systems through irrigation therefore has distinct social impacts for farm families and rural communities".

The introduction of water results in land use changes and all the social disruptions that follow. Many existing traditional farm families adopt irrigation and its opportunities; however many “new” families are attracted to the district for the challenges and opportunities. Communities can initially be disrupted and even disestablished by these changes. The “local families” who remain, it is suggested, remain as a “foci” validating new land uses and acting as “social anchors” around which the new emerging community will gather.

Many social benefits will occur because of irrigation and the associated changes, both at district and regional levels through the development of infrastructure, services and processing industries. Management of the impacts could include:

Infrastructure and resource planning, including housing;
Manpower and training strategies;
Small business development;
Research and development and advisory services;
Social service planning and co-ordination;
Monitoring of social changes and needs.

A desk-top review of likely social changes, based upon comparative cases mainly throughout Otago and Canterbury, since 1970s, by the author who has been directly involved in many of these studies, is presented.

It is explained that "the social consequence of irrigation will extend beyond demographic changes in land use, to include social consequences for farming systems and for wider rural communities. Indeed the net social benefit arising from new irrigation developments will depend on the extent that the rural communities are actively involved in capturing the opportunities presented by irrigation".

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