- 4.1 Southland Region
- Regional Population
- Table 4.1 Population Statistics
- Figure 27 Total Southland Population
- Table 4.2 Population Statistics by Gender
- Figure 28 Population by Gender
- Regional Employment
- Table 4.4 Occupation Type for Southland Residents
- Industry
- Table 4.5 Industry Type for Southland Residents
- 4.2 Rural Southland
- Population
- Rural Employment
- Rural employment by gender 1976-1991.
- 4.3 Demographic Trends in Southland District
- Table 4.6 Population Change 1981-1991 Southland Region
4. POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT
Information in this chapter describes the Southland Regional patterns of population and employment from 1971-1991 and for 1986-1991 the rural population and employment. Rural areas are those townships and localities of 1,000 population or less.
Sources of information are the New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings (Department of Statistics) and for 1986 and 1991 MAF research reports (Newell 1992 and Press and Newell 1994).
There are some limitations in the compilation of census data for occupation and industry because of changes in base population and occupation classifications over the period.
4.1 Southland Region
Regional Population
Total Population
The population of the Southland region increased slightly during the mid 1970’s from 106,348 in 1971 to 108,860 in 1976. The number of residents in the Southland region has since fallen steadily to 100,431 in 1991. This is a 5.6% drop in the population over this 20 year period.
Table 4.1 Population Statistics
| 1971 | 1976 | 1981 | 1986 | 1991 | |||
| Total Southland population | 106348 |
108860 |
108285 |
102894 |
100431 |
||
| % change | +2.4% |
-0.5% |
-5.0% |
-2.4% |
Figure 27 Total Southland Population
(click for full figure)
Gender
The number of males in the Southland region is greater than the number of females over the period 1971-1991. The percentage increases and decreases are similar for both males and females, although there was a larger increase in the female population that the male population between 1971 and 1976. There was a 6.3% decrease in the male population between 1981 and 1986, compared with a 3.4% decrease in the female population for the same period.
Table 4.2 Population Statistics by Gender
| 1971 | 1976 | 1981 | 1986 | 1991 | |||
| Male | 54759 |
55585 |
55413 |
51927 |
50658 |
||
| % change | +1.5% |
-0.3% |
-6.3% |
-2.4% |
|||
| Female | 51589 |
53275 |
52872 |
50970 |
49773 |
||
| % change | +3.3% |
-0.8% |
-3.4% |
-2.3% |
Figure 28 Population by Gender
(click for full figure)
Age
Between 1971 and 1991 there was a population decrease for the younger age groups (0-29 years) while there was an increase in the number of Southland residents in the older age groups (residents aged over 30 years).
Table 4.3 Population Statistics by Age
| 1971 | 1976 | 1981 | 1986 | 1991 | ||
| Total Southland | 106348 | 108860 | 108285 | 102894 | 100431 | |
| 0-4 | 11293 | 9591 | 8637 | 8256 | ||
| 5-14 | 22768 | 20916 | 18621 | 16722 | ||
| 15-19 | * No data | 10311 | 10245 | 8964 | 8070 | |
| 20-29 | available | 17559 | 17952 | 17424 | 14895 | |
| 30-39 | 13018 | 14606 | 15192 | 15780 | ||
| 40-59 | 20795 | 21213 | 20127 | 21798 | ||
| 60+ | 13116 | 13773 | 13932 | 14910 |
* The age groupings for the 1971 census data were inconsistent with the groupings used in other years and a meaningful reclassification of the data was not possible.
Figure 29 Southland Population by Age
Regional Employment
Occupation
There was a 9% increase in the number of Southland residents employed as agricultural, forestry and fishery worked between 1971 and 1981. This decreased by 4% between 1981 and 1986 before increasing by 1% between 1986 and 1991.
The number of production, transport, equipment operators and labourers increased by 8.7% between 1971 and 1981 before falling by 19% between 1981 and 1991 - this was a total decrease of 12% over the 20 year period.
Table 4.4 Occupation Type for Southland Residents
| Occupation | 1971 | 1976 | 1981 | 1986 | 1991 |
| Professional, Technical | 3849 | 4685 | 4665 | 4515 | 7353 |
| Administrative, Managerial | 702 | 888 | 987 | 1290 | 3360 |
| Clerical | 5102 | 5513 | 5766 | 5193 | 4689 |
| Service & Sale Workers | 6801 | 7004 | 7368 | 6309 | 5184 |
| Agriculture, Forestry & Fishery Workers | 8156 | 8116 | 8874 | 8505 | 8610 |
| Production, Transport, Equipment Operators | 15870 | 16566 | 17253 | 13659 | 13893 |
| & Labourers | |||||
| Total | 40480 | 42772 | 44913 | 39471 | 43089 |
Note: It is difficult to compare these figures between years because the occupation classifications and the population included differ in some of the periods. The basis on which the figures given were determined is as follows:
| 1981 | Population usually resident full-time labour force (full-time comprises all persons aged 15 years or over who are normally employed 20 hours or more each week). |
| 1986 | Population resident in New Zealand aged 15 years and over gainfully employed in full-time labour force (full-time comprises those persons aged 15 years and over working 30 hours or more per week). |
| 1991 | Population resident in New Zealand aged 15 years and over gainfully employed in full-time and part-time labour force (full-time comprises those persons working 30 hours or more per week; part-time comprises those working 1 to 29 hours per week). |
There were also differences in the occupation classifications over the years and therefore coding differences could have resulted in some of the differences between years.
Industry
Between 1971 and 1981 there was a 9% increase in the number of residents working in the agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing industry in the Southland region. There was very little change (0.2% decrease) in the number of residents working in this industry between 1981 and 1991.
There was a 10% increase in the number of residents working in the manufacturing industry between 1971 and 1991.
Table 4.5 Industry Type for Southland Residents
| Industry | 1971 | 1976 | 1981 | 1986 | 1991 |
| Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing | 8065 | 7988 | 8772 | 8388 | 8751 |
| Mining & Quarrying | 444 | 493 | 354 | 426 | 210 |
| Manufacturing | 8487 | 9943 | 11394 | 8868 | 9339 |
| Electricity, Gas & Water | 451 | 440 | 444 | 489 | 366 |
| Building & Construction | 3866 | 3110 | 2757 | 2172 | 1920 |
| Wholesale, Retail & Restaurants | 7453 | 7676 | 7707 | 6855 | 8034 |
| Transport, Storage & Communication | 3882 | 3622 | 3282 | 2931 | 2115 |
| Business & Financial Services | 1831 | 2073 | 2367 | 2313 | 2946 |
| Community, Social & Personal Services | 5994 | 7274 | 8112 | 7044 | 9450 |
| Total | 40473 | 42619 | 45189 | 39486 | 43131 |
4.2 Rural Southland
Population
The rural population includes all residents of centres and localities of less than 1000 population. Within the region there are three centres of greater than 1000 population, Gore which is in the Gore District Council area and, within Southland District Council area, the towns of Winton and Te Anau.
Changes in the rural population have been analyzed for 1986 to 1991 and compared to national patterns for rural New Zealand. Key changes in Southland region are
- major population loss
- great decrease among younger people, especially those age 20-24.
The rural areas of the region, that is centres of less than 1000 population, declined by 8.6%. This is 2700 people from a population of 31407 in 1986.
The decrease is among the younger aged group ( 0-29 years) with the greatest decrease among those 20-24 years. Rural Southland had the greatest loss of any region in New Zealand over this time with a loss of 76% of those age 20-24 compared with rural New Zealand as a whole decreasing by 44% for this age group (refer Press and Newell 1994).
Only three regions in new Zealand had large rural population losses between 1986-1991. These included Southland which had the greatest loss, Wanganui and Tongariro. Overall New Zealand rural population actually increased by 1.4% over this period.
Rural Employment
Southland has proportionally the highest number of FTE jobs per 1000 population. There were 16 per 1000 population 1991, compared to the New Zealand rural areas ratio of 8 per 1000 population.
Declines from 1986 to 1991 in the rural areas were greatest in employment for males and for full time positions.
Southland region’s employment (both part time and full time) in the rural area declined by 14% for males and 1% for females from 1986-1991. New Zealand rural areas overall declined by 9% for the males and increased by 6% for females.
The FTE employment decreased in rural Southland by 10% (from 14363 to 12971) while New Zealand rural areas decreased over this time by 5%. Only West Coast, Northland and East Cape regions had higher losses of FTE employment.
The decrease for rural Southland of 1392 FTE jobs was primarily in sheep farming. Mining and communication also experienced large declines, reflecting restructuring of state sector activities.
Rural Southland populations employment by industry for 1986 and 1991 shows a loss of 1392 FTE employment. This is a decrease of 10% compared to the national pattern of a decrease of rural districts of 5%. Table (from newell p. 98, 94 90).
In 1991 half (52%) the rural Southland population is employed directly in agricultural production with 6727 of 12971 FTE. Between 1986 and 1991 9% or 704 FTE jobs were lost in this sector. The greatest decline come in sheep farming which decreased by 23% while. dairying showed an increase of 20%. Nationally dairy jobs in rural areas declined by 13% and sheep by 33%.
Rural employment by gender 1976-1991.
Review of Southland Region rural employment from 1976 to 1991 shows that (refer Appendix B, Tables B1, B2, B3, B4 and Figure B1) male participation declined while female participation increased. From 1976 to 1991 the number of full and part time jobs for males decreased from 10938 to 8745 while the number of full and part time jobs for females increased from 3396 to 5367 (Table B 1).
- Overall from 1976 to 1991 jobs for rural Southland males decreased by 20% while jobs for females increased by 58%. (Table B 2)
Industry categories show that agricultural employment for males over this time (1976-1991) decreased by 16% while female employment in agriculture increased by 102%.
- Rural jobs in general as well as agricultural jobs in particular for males decreased the most in the period 1986 to 1991 while jobs for females increased the most at a earlier period, 1976-1981.
Female participation in agriculture increased in absolute numbers as well as proportion as did female participation in most other industries. In 1976 one third of the rural female workforce was engaged in agriculture. By 1991 this had risen to just under half (44%).
Male participation in agriculture and in all other industries continued to decrease over the period 1976 to 1991. Just over half the rural male workforce continued to be employed in agriculture.
Male participation in agriculture from 1976 to 1991 is shown in more detail in Table B3. The number of males under age 35 employed in agriculture decreased at greater proportions than did males over the age of 45 years. However there has also been a decline in males over age 45 employed in agriculture. Males age 40-44 actually increased their participation in agriculture primarily in livestock employment.
General population statistics reflect that males age 40 and older have increased or maintained their presence in rural areas while younger males have migrated out of the districts.
Increased participation for females in agriculture has occurred across all ages except for the oldest + 65 age group.
In summary, the most striking aspect of the 1976 to 1991 rural employment changes has been the increased participation of women with the greatest change in the early period 1976 to 1981 while there has been a continued decline in male participation in employment with the greatest change in the period 1986-1991.
4.3 Demographic Trends in Southland District
Demographic projections in Southland District Council population is analyzed by zones equating to ward boundaries (refer Southland District Council, April 1996).
Since 1981 the population has declined in Southland Region by three percent; this has been greatest in Southland District
Table 4.6 Population Change 1981-1991 Southland Region
| Area | % change | ||
| 1981-1986 | 1986-1991 | ||
| Southland District | -2.3 | -6.1 | |
| Gore District | -4.3 | -2.4 | |
| Invercargill City | -2.0 | -1.2 | |
| Southland Region | -2.2 | -3.0 | |
| New Zealand Average | 3.8 | 3.4 | |
Rural townships of Ohai and Tuatapere in Southland District and adjacent areas had the greatest decline, associated with restructuring of state coal mining and state forestry.
Projections of population in Southland District to the year 2016 show spatial variation in decline with a range between 0.3% and 20.5%. Service centre towns as well as adjacent areas are expected to decline. Change may occur for different reasons with out migration the primary reason in some cases and in other cases reduction in the rate of natural increase. Some localities will maintain population by attracting in migration of retirees. Demographic ageing and increasing levels of age dependency are predicted with subsequent resource implications.
Downturn in farming service centres is expected to continue based on the changes in agriculture over the past decade. However, it may be that in some of the isolated rural areas, maximum depopulation has already been reached, resulting in less rapid change in the years to come.
In-migration of retirees is anticipated to continue for Riverton and Winton so that these centres maintain their population over the next two decades. This may also be the pattern for Tuatapere.
The North/West Rural area of the District, Otautau and Wallacetown will probably experience less decline due to a combination of natural increase and continued out-migration.
The Northern Towns, Lumsden and Riversdale, South/East Rural and Ohai and Nightcaps areas are likely to decline due to a high rate of out-migration despite natural increase in population.
The population in other areas and townships is likely to decrease with a declining rate of natural increase as well as high out-migration rates.
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