2 Introduction
2.1 Goal
Study and identify current landuse changes and extrapolate to construct a vision of the agriculture and forestry sectors in the period 2010-2015. The vision will identify particular areas where landuse change is likely to occur and the implications on future water resource requirements
2.2 Context of the project
Water scarcity is common to many areas of New Zealand. Access to water plays a critical role in the economic development of many of these areas, with changing land uses often able to offer significantly greater economic benefits provided water is available.
The ability to project accurately the likely demand on water resources by creating a vision of agriculture and forestry is critical to the future development of many regions. Regions with affordably sustainable water resources will have a distinct advantage in attracting economic development finance from investors who can make long-term business commitments to projects. Also, those regions with proportionately higher demands on water resources will need to take steps to meet the demand.
Failure to predict likely future demand will lead to substantial resource allocation problems. Understanding the environmental suitability of certain land uses to regional resources is a necessary component of such a study. Gauging the currents that impact on the economic viability of particular landuses will be key to developing logical development programmes for specific regions.
2.3 Objectives
Objective 1: Title: NZ Agriculture and Forestry 2010
Description: The aim is to identify areas where significant landuse change is likely to occur driven by changing market conditions for the products of that landuse. This requires an assessment of current landuse, product market outlooks and projections with key drivers identified. Emerging from this assessment will be a plausible vision for NZ agriculture and forestry in 2010 with the particular aim of illustrating the areas where planned development of water resources is needed to achieve the vision.
Objective 2: Title: Create a water supply and demand profile
Description: Using the results of objective one (i.e. the landuse vision), establish a water demand profile by region in the period 2010 - 2015. Outcomes will identify existing water supply by region and where water will come under demand pressure.
2.4 Methodology/Approach
Objective 1: Compile a vision of NZ Agriculture and Forestry 2010
Literature search
Government and industry reports on existing landuse trends and projections by sector.
Analysis of literature search results included:
- Analysis of research reports & trend data
- Assessment of sectors for their future profitability, market prospects, sector constraints (including raw material processing issues) and suitability for available environmental resources (e.g. topography, soil, climate etc)
- Discussion of findings of literature search with key personnel of the national and regional information sources
- Determination of key drivers for landuse change through sector analysis of projected future returns based on market signals
A vision of agriculture and forestry in 2010 was developed by
- Extending the historical trend data (assuming water supply is unlimited) and adjusting to reflect market demand trends to construct a vision of agriculture and forestry landuse in 2010 and the likely landuse mix by region.
Objective 2: Create a water supply and demand profile
- A literature search was undertaken
- Current water demand for each significant landuse in the respective regions was captured.
The demand side of the equation was expressed in terms of current and future demand. Current demand for the six key regions was established by combining non-irrigation and irrigation allocations. Future demand was calculated by two methods;
- Assumptions of 10 percent growth in non-irrigation use, growth estimates from normal intensification and where relevant estimates of increased growth in irrigation of low water holding capacity soils
- Market demand projections that involved consideration of current irrigation in the region by each sector and the key market growth drivers The result was a future demand projection for the region within a band or range and expressed in hectare equivalents.
- Water supply by region was identified by capturing regional data on surface water mean flows and allocation policy and combining this with annual ground water recharge, to present an overall estimate of potentially available water expressed in hectare equivalents.
- Comparative study:
The supply and demand profiles for each region were presented and this identified those regions where water resources are projected to come under demand pressure. The approximate level of deficit was calculated where applicable.
- A summary of findings and recommendations are contained in report form. These illustrate projected regional landuses with accompanying surplus/deficit situation and identify constraints and variables likely to impact on the projected situation.
2.5 Outputs:
The report contains the following component parts:
- A sector situation and outlook analysis with projections for the future based on market prospects (refer Appendix 1 for the full report)
- A summary of year 2000 landuse by region with analysis of suitability to specific landuse sectors
- A vision of agriculture and forestry landuse in New Zealand in 2010
- Profile water supply and demand by region taking into account existing water usage and applying the landuse vision for 2010
- Conclusions highlighting issues arising with respect to projected regional water demand
Contact for Enquiries
MAF Information Services
Pastoral House
25 The Terrace
PO Box 2526
Wellington, NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0721
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