Future Water Allocation Issues - 3.2 Current Land Use

3.2.1 Description of regional areas
- Figure 4: Landuse area by sector
3.2.2 Factors limiting production
3.2.3 Summary of key areas where water availability has an impact

3.2 Current Land Use

3.2.1 Description of regional areas

A regional breakdown of the current landuse is illustrated in the following table:

Figure 4: Landuse area by sector

Appendix 3 contains a breakdown of each region on a sector by sector basis. This analysis assesses the regions overall suitability to each landuse according to the following criteria:

Climate
New land availability
Infrastructure
Relative profitability
Irrigated water impact
Other factors influencing landuse change
Likely landuse change
Irrigation requirement

3.2.2 Factors limiting production

The key factors limiting agricultural production on a regional basis are largely physical and crop/sector specific. These include:

Rainfall volume and pattern throughout the year
Ground and surface water availability Soil type and fertility
Soil water holding capacity
Drainage
Topography/gradient
Wind/shelter
Roading access
Personnel and skill supply levels
Infrastructure to process/harvest the agricultural crop

3.2.3 Summary of key areas where water availability has an impact

While all regions rely on a reliable supply of water for the range of agricultural activity some have a greater degree of dependence than others. The analysis undertaken has identified the following six regions where water availability will have a significant impact on the future development of agriculture/horticulture:

Waikato/King Country
Hawkes Bay
Wellington/Wairarapa
Marlborough
Canterbury
Otago

Each region is summarised in the following matrix according to a range of factors:

Waikato/ King Country	Land Use Type
	Dairy	Other Pasture	Arable	Horticulture	Viticulture	Forestry	Lifestyle Block
Climate	Well suited Excellent soils	Well suited	Well suited to forage crops. Not generally suited to grain (maize aside)	Site specific. Well suited to vegetables and berryfruit	Not generally well suited. Other regions preferred.	Well suited	Well suited
New land availability	Conversion from deer, sheep & beef. Limited additional land. Some harvested forestry being resown in pasture	No new land avail. Pressure from forestry on marginal land	Could attract land from sheep & beef	Conversion from dairy and ‘other pasture’ category		Some available Competes with marginal sheep & beef	Available from all sectors
Infrastructure	Established Excellent	Established Excellent	Sufficient	Established and central to population base		Established Excellent	Established rural service towns
Relative Profitability	Leading livestock option. Competes with Hort & horse breeding	Lowland competes with dairy and horse breeding. Deer followed by sheep and beef on hill country. Marginal land competes with forestry.	Lower than dairy grazing but ahead of sheep & beef	Competes for high fertility land as the most profitable intensive landuse		Above poor performing sheep & beef	Not applicable
Water impact	Not generally limiting in northern areas. Site/area specific.	Not limiting	Not applicable	Not generally limiting but may be desirable		Not applicable	Not applicable
Other	Cultural land o/ship issues.	Cultural land o/ship issues.	Cultural land o/ship issues.	Cultural land o/ship issues		Tax deductibility of establishment
Likely change	Increasing Gains from ‘other pasture’ partially offset by loses to lifestyle	Decrease Competition from dairy on good land and forestry on poorer land. Internal loses to deer	None	Minor increase		Increase in marginal land	increasing
Irrigation requirement	Site specific. Desirable in some areas but not generally required.	No	No	Generally not essential but desirable		Not applicable	Not applicable

Hawkes Bay	Land Use Type
	Dairy	Other Pasture	Arable	Horticulture	Viticulture	Forestry	Lifestyle Block
Climate	Area specific Irrigation dependent	Generally well suited.	Well suited but area specific	Well suited	Extremely well suited but site specific (contains 25% of national production)	Suitable but area specific	Well suited Attractive
New land availability	Conversions from deer, sheep & beef	Some internal change (from sheep & beef to deer). No ‘new’ land available	Competes with dairy and intensive sheep and beef	Competes with viticulture, livestock finishing and lifestyle blocks on lowland	Conversion from horticulture, arable and sheep & beef	Available From marginal sheep & beef	Conversions from all other options
Infrastructure & condition	Less developed than other regions	Established Excellent	Established Excellent	Well established Excellent	Well established Excellent	Established Good	Established Excellent
Relative profitability	1^st in livestock behind vit & hort	1^st on hill country, competes with forestry. Competes with dairy on flat/lowland	On lowland competes with hort, viticulture, and dairy. Generally above sheep & beef	Vying for most profitable on lowland. Competes with dairy and viticulture.	Vying for most profitable on lowland. Ahead of pasture/livestock options	Below pastoral options. Competes with marginal sheep and beef	Not applicable
Water impact	Limiting factor in most instances	Limiting factor in majority of summers	Limiting factor	Limiting factor	Limiting factor	Not generally applicable although a consideration	Not generally applicable
Other	Cultural landuse o/ship issues.	Cultural landuse o/ship issues.	Cultural landuse o/ship issues.	Cultural landuse o/ship issues.	Cultural landuse o/ship issues.	Tax deductibility incentive
Likely change	Increasing	Declining ‘good quality to dairy, arable & lifestyle, ‘low’ quality to forestry. Some internal change to deer	Increasing from ‘other pasture’	Small decline Some loss to viticulture. Change in crops	Increasing	Increasing	Increasing
Irrigation requirement	Generally Yes but area specific	Generally no but area specific	Generally yes but area specific	Yes - essential	Yes - essential	Not required	Not required but will impact on offtake

Wellington/ Wairarapa	Land Use Type
	Dairy	Other Pasture	Arable	Horticulture	Viticulture	Forestry	Lifestyle Block
Climate	Generally well suited. Irrigation dependent in some areas. Location specific	Well suited	Location specific	Location specific. Limited potential Other areas better suited	Location specific. Some areas well suited.	Location specific. Generally good in sheltered areas.	Well suited
New land availability	Some, conversion from deer, sheep and beef on lowlands	No new land available.	Some sheep and beef land is suitable for arable	Area specific. Some land available from livestock enterprises	Conversions from pastoral grazing uses	Conversion from marginal sheep & beef	Conversions from all livestock uses and horticulture
Infrastructure & condition	Established Excellent	Established Excellent	Not established	Established, particularly for vegetables	Established Excellent	Established Excellent	Established Excellent
Relative profitability	1^st in livestock on lowland. Competes with horticulture & lifestyle blocks	Behind dairy on lowlands. Deer followed by sheep and beef on good hill country. Competes with forestry on marginal hills.	Competes with dairy and sheep and beef finishing	Competes on lowland with dairy, other livestock and lifestyle blocks. Crop dependent and high risk	Highest land use on suitable areas – very site specific.	Competes with sheep & beef on marginal hill country	Competes for valuable hort and livestock landuses
Water impact	Not generally a limiting factor (site specific)	Area specific. Can be a limiting factor in dry southeast.	Can be a limiting factor	Generally a limiting factor	Limiting factor	A limiting factor in selected areas (coastal southeast)	Not a limiting factor
Other
Likely net change	Increase	Decrease sheep and beef, but deer increase.	Decline – other areas more suited	Increase	Increase	Increase	Increase
Irrigation requirement	Required in some areas (southeast)	Required in some areas	Required in some areas (site specific)	Required	Required	Not applicable	Not generally required but may be desirable

Marlborough	Land Use Type
	Dairy	Other Pasture	Arable	Horticulture	Viticulture	Forestry	Lifestyle Block
Climate	Generally not well suited. Site specific (e.g. Picton/ Koromiko area)	Suitable	Suitable	Suitable	Very well suited (contains 40% of national production area)	Not generally well suited. Site specific.	Well suited
New land availability	Some, from sheep and beef	Not generally	Conversions from sheep and beef	Conversions from arable and other pasture. Also competes with dairy and viticulture	Conversion from hort, ‘other pasture’ and lifestyle	Some, from marginal hill country & existing scrub areas.	Available from all other options, particularly other pastoral
Infrastructure	Established Good	Established Excellent	Established Good	Established Good	Established Excellent	Established excellent	Established Excellent
Relative Profitability	Competes for high quality lowlands with hort ,viticulture & sheep & beef finishing	Competes with dairy on lowland finishing areas and forestry on hill country	Generally behind dairy but ahead of sheep and beef finishing.	Behind viticulture and competes with dairy & ahead of other pasture	Competes with hort as most profitable landuse	Competes with ‘other pastoral’ on marginal hill country.	Na
Water impact	Limiting factor	Limiting factor	Limiting factor	Limiting factor	Limiting factor	Can be a limiting factor	No
Other
Likely change	Stable	Declining	Stable	Minor increase	Increasing	Increasing	Increasing
Irrigation requirement	Generally yes	Generally yes	Generally yes	Yes	Yes	No	Not generally a requirement but desirable

Canterbury	Land Use Type
	Dairy	Other Pasture	Arable	Horticulture	Viticulture	Forestry	Lifestyle Block
Climate	Generally suitable but site/area specific	Generally well suited	Well suited	Not suitable or marginal (site specific)	Suitable (site specific) Contain 4% of national production area	Not well suited (some sheltered areas OK)	Well suited
New land availability	Available from other pastoral, arable	Little available	Available from ‘other pastoral’	Available from arable and ‘other pastoral’	Available from livestock, hort and lifestyle blocks	Available but site specific. From marginal ‘other pasture’ country	Available from hort, dairy and other pastoral
Infrastructure	Established Excellent	Established Excellent	Established Excellent (NZ’s principle gain growing area)	Small and not established	Small & developing	Established Good	Established Excellent
Relative profitability	1^st in livestock Competes with hort and viticulture	Behind dairy, competes with arable on good quality land and forestry on low quality	Behind dairy and generally ahead of ‘other pastoral’ on good quality land.	Crop and site specific. Generally above dairy, ‘other pasture, and arable	Competes for most profitable land	Generally below other options. Competes with ‘other pasture’ on low quality hill country	Na
Water impact	Limiting factor	Limiting factor but site and enterprise specific	Limiting factor	Limiting factor (essential & crop specific)	Limiting factor	Limiting factor	Na
Other	DDT soil toxicity in some areas	DDT soil toxicity in some areas	DDT soil toxicity in some areas	DDT soil toxicity in some areas	DDT soil toxicity in some areas	DDT soil toxicity in some areas	DDT soil toxicity in some areas
Likely change	Increasing	Declining	Declining	Increasing Changes in crop type but only small change in total area	Increasing	Increasing	Increasing
Irrigation requirement	Definitely	Not generally as slope> 5 degrees	Definitely	Definitely	Definitely	Not required	Not necessary but may be desirable

Otago	Land Use Type
	Dairy	Other Pasture	Arable	Horticulture	Viticulture	Forestry	Lifestyle Block
Climate	Generally well suited. Site specific	Generally well suited	Generally well suited	Site specific, suited to some crops	Site specific. Generally well suited	Suitable but other regions have higher growth rates	Suitable
New land availability	Conversions on lowlands from deer, sheep & beef finishing	Generally losing land to all remaining sectors	Conversion, from ‘other pastoral’	Conversion from ‘other pasture’	Conversion from hort, arable, livestock and lifestyle blocks	Conversion from marginal ‘other pasture’	Conversion from all ‘other pastoral, arable, horticulture
Infrastructure	Small scale but increasing rapidly	Established Excellent	Established Excellent	Established for stonefruit	Small but growing	Established Good	Established Good
Relative profitability	1^st in livestock. Competes with livestock finishing and arable	Livestock finishing competes with dairy. Best option on good/medium hill country.	Behind dairy, but generally ahead of ‘other pastoral’ on good quality land	Competes for high quality lowland	Competes for high quality grazing/hort land	Generally behind ‘other pastoral’ on good/medium land. Competes on low quality land	Not applicable
Water impact	Limiting factor	Limiting factor in some areas	Limiting factor in some areas	Limiting factor	Limiting factor	Not a limiting factor	Not limiting
Other
Likely change	Increasing	Declining	Stable	Stable	Increasing	Increasing	Increasing
Irrigation requirement	Required in most areas. Site specific (e.g. not required in parts of south Otago)	Not generally	Not generally	Required	Required	Not required	Not required

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PO Box 2526
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