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• Figure 41: Key regional results
• Figure 42 : Estimated change in irrigation area due to market demand forces
• General overview

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4.5 Comparison of Demand and Supply Profiles

Section 3.2.3 above identifies the 6 regions where water availability is either a limiting factor or will have a significant impact on the future development of agriculture/horticulture. The following table summarises the collective results from these six regions based on the process illustrated in section 4.4 above.

Figure 41: Key regional results

 

Region	Projected supply based on ground and surface water recharge (ha equivalent)	Projected demand based on ground & surface water recharge (ha equivalents)	Nimmo-Bell demand estimates based on market prospects (ha)	Surplus/ deficit range (hectare equivalents)	Year 2000 % utilisation	Expected year 2010 % utilisation
Waikato/KC	184,500	38,582	32,579	145,000– 151,000	9%	18 – 21%
Canterbury	650,614	555,200	495,800	95,000– 154,000	66%	76 – 85%
Wairarapa	36,825	9,504	14,486	22,300 – 27,300	23%	26 – 39%
Marlborough	46,249	20,079	20,863	25,300 – 26,100	30%	43-45%
Otago	252,300	171,262	194,400	57,900 - 81,000	61%	68-77%
Hawkes Bay	29,924	35,334	37,900	(5,400 – 7,900)	97%	118 – 127%

Note: The demand columns of the above table include water allocated for non-irrigation purposes.

All six key regions are expected to see demand increases over the period to 2010. The Hawkes Bay region features as it is projected to be in a deficit situation due to its supply constraints (not necessarily physical but brought about by the allowable off-take policy applied in the region - refer regional comment above).

The following table details the projected increases in irrigation demand on a regional basis (based on estimated market demand for various landuses):

Figure 42 : Estimated change in irrigation area due to market demand forces

Note: Water demand for non-irrigation purposes is not included in the above table.
(Note: The above table assumes sufficient water supply and is taken from the market demand drivers)

The key conclusions to be drawn from the above table are that:

• growth in the use of irrigation is expected in all regions except Taranaki and Westland,
• the overall irrigation area will increase by 28 percent with just under 40 percent of the increase occurring in Canterbury,
• the combined Canterbury (62.2 percent) and Otago (15.6 percent) regions will account for almost 78 percent of the irrigated area (down from 81 percent in 2000).
• Growth in irrigation demand in other regions such as Waikato (up 200 percent), Hawkes Bay (up 34 percent), Wairarapa (up 57 percent) and Marlborough (up 51 percent) will place pressure on councils to review their irrigation policies.

General overview

There are significant issues confronting most regional councils with regard to water allocation. In many cases the issues will differ and relate to that particular regional council policy. For example, Otago has allocated more than the mean annual low flow (MALF) will allow, hence its Environment Court case, whereas in Hawkes Bay, irrigators are facing supply shortages due to allocation policy (i.e. a 10 percent threshold policy where permitted offtake is restricted to 10 percent of the mean flow). The economic versus non-economic interests are in conflict in the latter situation.

Regional councils hold different perspectives on the use of water. In regions where irrigation is well established and blanket irrigation coverage is recognised as an integral necessity for the region's economic development, the local regional council generally recognises this. In areas where irrigation of farmland is intermittent (i.e. where only 1 farm in 10 is irrigated), the regional council often has a view that irrigation is discretionary and not vital for the agricultural operation. The policy applied may in many cases be more restricting on irrigators. It is safe to say that some water shortages have occurred because of policies that have been established. Policies need to be rigorously scrutinised and environmental claims should have supporting scientific evidence.

There is a commonly held belief that if a regional council's allocation policy is not challenged in the Environment Court then the policy must be correct. Individual irrigators are often reluctant to challenge the allocation policy due to the process/cost involved - failure to challenge the policy should not be taken as an endorsement of the policy.

Irrigators are now looking to form groups to challenge policies. In areas where there is not blanket irrigation, these landowners face greater difficulties. Within the irrigating fraternity there are contrasting positions held. Existing irrigators seek to safeguard their interest and are reluctant to see new irrigators (new entrants) enter the demand equation and thereby reduce the access for existing irrigators to a limited resource.

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