APPENDIX 4: ASSUMPTIONS USED IN IRRIGATION VALUE CALCULATIONS
A4.1 Land use assumptions for current irrigated area
Generally, production from dryland systems is less certain over time, both within and between years. Therefore, while gross margins reflect a difference in farmgate returns that may or may not be a positive return on investment, they do not take into account the fluctuations in returns from year to year or the risk of not achieving the yield in any one year. Therefore, inherent in the following assumptions on land use is a judgement about the likelihood of being able to profitably operate a farm system without irrigation. For example, many arable crops don’t require irrigation every year – but without having irrigation available, it is increasingly likely that the farmer will not be able to get a contract to grow the crop, or will otherwise take on considerably more marketing risk.
Specific regional land use assumptions made in the analysis are from MAF Technical Paper 2004/01, and applied to the waterbodies in the region, as follows:
Northland
- All irrigated dairy, maize and perennial horticulture (kiwifruit, citrus and avocados) would be in the same land use without irrigation. Irrigation would not alter the land use as the profitability of the land use under dryland is still greater than alternative land uses. However, Gross Margins reflect lower annual production.
- Irrigated annual crops (squash, flowers and fresh vegetables) would be in perennial horticulture predominant in the region (kiwifruit, citrus and avocados) due to relatively lower reliability of production. Auckland All irrigated dairy, kiwifruit, avocados, citrus and grapes would be in the same land use without irrigation. Irrigation would not alter the land use as the profitability of the land use under dryland is still greater than alternative land uses. However, Gross Margins reflect lower annual production.
- Irrigated annual crops (potatoes, onions, squash and fresh vegetables) would be in dairy farming as best dryland use for that land.
- Other irrigated horticulture (mainly flowers and strawberries) would be in other horticulture common in the area (avocados and kiwifruit).
Waikato
- All irrigated dairy, kiwifruit, avocados and grapes would be in the same land use without irrigation. Irrigation would not alter the land use as the profitability of the land use under dryland is still greater than alternative land uses. However, Gross Margins reflect lower annual production.
- Irrigated annual crops (potatoes, onions, squash, flowers, berryfruit and fresh vegetables), would be in dairy farming as best dryland use for that land.
Bay of Plenty
- All irrigated dairy, kiwifruit and avocados would be in the same land use without irrigation. Irrigation would not alter the land use as the profitability of the land use under dryland is still greater than alternative land uses. However, gross margins reflect lower annual production.
- Irrigated annual crops (potatoes, onions, squash and flowers) would be in dairy farming as best dryland use for that land.
Gisborne
- Irrigated annual crops (lettuces, squash and sweetcorn) would be in dryland pastoral farming as best dryland use for that land because market demands would not accept the low reliability of production inherent in dryland systems.
- Irrigated kiwifruit and flowers would be in grapes as the best dryland option for that land, as the majority of viticulture in Gisborne operates on dryland.
Hawke's Bay
- Irrigated dairy farms on heavy soils and grapes and apples would be in the same land use without irrigation. Irrigation would not alter the land use as the profitability of the land use under dryland is still greater than alternative land uses. However, gross margins reflect lower annual production.
- Irrigated annual crops (potatoes, onions, peas, sweetcorn, squash and flowers) would be in dryland arable systems as best dryland use for that land. Canterbury gross margins have been used as the dryland scenario in this case.
- Irrigated cereals would be in dryland arable as the best dryland use for that land.
- Irrigated stonefruit and kiwifruit would be in apples as the best dryland use for that land.
Manawatu-Wanganui
- Irrigated dairy farms on heavy soils would be in the same land use without irrigation. Irrigation would not alter the land use as the profitability of the land use under dryland is still greater than alternative land uses. However, gross margins reflect lower annual production.
- Irrigated dairy farms on sandy soils would be in pastoral production as best dryland use for that land.
- Irrigated annual crops (potatoes, lettuces, cabbages and flowers) would be in dairy farming as best dryland use for that land.
Taranaki
- Irrigated dairy farms would be in the same land use without irrigation. Irrigation would not alter the land use as the profitability of the land use under dryland is still greater than alternative land uses. However, gross margins reflect lower annual production.
- Irrigated annual crops (potatoes, fresh vegetables and flowers) would be in dairy farming as best dryland use for that land.
Wellington
- Irrigated dairy farms, apples and grapes on heavy soils would be in the same land use without irrigation. Irrigation would not alter the land use as the profitability of the land use under dryland is still greater than alternative land uses. However, gross margins reflect lower annual production.
- Irrigated fresh vegetable crops and the remaining grape land would be in lifestyle blocks as best dryland use for that land.
- Olives and flowers would be in dryland arable as best dryland use for that land.
Tasman
- Irrigated dairy, pastoral and arable farms, and grapes and some apples would be in the same land use without irrigation. Irrigation would not alter the land use as the profitability of the land use under dryland is still greater than alternative land uses. However, gross margins reflect lower annual production.
- Irrigated annual crops (fresh vegetables and flowers), kiwifruit, berryfruit and most apples would be in a combination of arable, other lower value horticulture and lifestyle blocks as best dryland use for that land.
Marlborough
- Irrigated dairy farms on heavy soils and good rainfall areas, plus irrigated arable farms on good soils, irrigated pastoral farms, and apples would be in the same land use without irrigation. Irrigation would not alter the land use as the profitability of the land use under dryland is still greater than alternative land uses. However, gross margins reflect lower annual production.
- Grapes on heavy soils will remain in the same land use without irrigation. However, the majority of grapes would be in dryland arable and lifestyle blocks as best dryland use for that land.
- Irrigated dairy and arable farms on lighter soils and process vegetable land would be in dryland pastoral and dryland arable uses as best dryland use for that land.
- Irrigated fresh vegetables and flowers would be in a combination of dryland arable and lifestyle blocks as best dryland use for that land.
Canterbury
- Irrigated dairy farms on heavy soils and pastoral and arable systems on medium and heavy soils would be in the same land use without irrigation. Irrigation would not alter the land use as the profitability of the land use under dryland is still greater than alternative land uses. However, gross margins reflect lower annual production.
- Irrigated dairy farms on medium soils, process and most fresh vegetable crops, and blackcurrants would be in dryland arable systems as best dryland use for that land.
- Irrigated dairy and arable farms on light soils would be in pastoral systems as the best dryland use for that land.
- Irrigated apples, olives, flowers, grapes and some fresh vegetables would be in lifestyle blocks as the best dryland use for that land.
Otago
- Irrigated pasture and arable land would be in the same land use without irrigation. Irrigation would not alter the land use as the profitability of the land use under dryland is still greater than alternative land uses. However, gross margins reflect lower annual production.
- Irrigated arable, vegetable land and flowers would be in dryland arable systems as best dryland use for that land.
- Irrigated dairy, apples, stonefruit and grapes would be in extensive pastoral systems as the best dryland use for that land.
Southland
- Irrigated dairy and arable and land would be in the same land use without irrigation. Irrigation would not alter the land use as the profitability of the land use under dryland is still greater than alternative land uses. However, gross margins reflect lower annual production.
- Irrigated vegetable land and flowers would be in dryland crop as best dryland use for that land.
Table A4.1 Land use of current irrigated area by waterbody
|
|
|
Irrigated Landuse |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Current |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Irrigated area |
Pastoral |
Dairy |
Arable |
Flowers |
Fruit |
Nurseries |
Viticulture |
|
| Waterbody |
Current |
Remainder |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Waiau |
16,500 |
8,025 |
8,137 |
338 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Hurunui |
4,000 |
1,300 |
2,700 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Waimakariri |
11,000 |
-680 |
8,921 |
2,350 |
90 |
250 |
20 |
50 |
|
Central Canty groundwater |
56,900 |
19,965 |
22,325 |
13,860 |
53 |
427 |
100 |
170 |
|
Rakaia |
4,100 |
26 |
4,009 |
65 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Mid Canty groundwater |
50,015 |
14,613 |
11,780 |
23,372 |
0 |
250 |
0 |
0 |
|
Rangitata |
63,860 |
33,301 |
24,178 |
6,382 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Opihi |
23,510 |
16,275 |
3,194 |
3,997 |
4 |
19 |
16 |
4 |
|
Waitaki |
46060 |
23,576 |
21,138 |
1,213 |
0 |
60 |
70 |
3 |
|
Taieri |
10,000 |
9,552 |
445 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Manuherikia |
17,320 |
16,840 |
62 |
8 |
8 |
226 |
33 |
144 |
|
Clutha |
9,520 |
8,094 |
0 |
46 |
18 |
1,034 |
1 |
327 |
|
Waipapa |
1450 |
-5 |
380 |
40 |
20 |
1,000 |
15 |
0 |
|
Waikato River |
5,000 |
366 |
4370 |
264 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Heretaunga Plains |
13,000 |
944 |
1140 |
1,716 |
0 |
6,200 |
0 |
3,000 |
|
Ngaruroro catchment |
4,800 |
986 |
2,850 |
264 |
0 |
200 |
0 |
500 |
|
Tukituki/Ruataniwha Plains |
3,500 |
226 |
1,710 |
264 |
0 |
1,300 |
0 |
0 |
|
Ruamahanga catchment |
300 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
300 |
|
Motueka catchment |
2,160 |
-8 |
1,435 |
33 |
0 |
660 |
10 |
30 |
|
Moutere catchment |
1,909 |
-1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1,820 |
0 |
90 |
|
Waimea catchment |
4,798 |
1,459 |
922 |
198 |
10 |
1,670 |
70 |
470 |
|
Wairau catchment |
15,075 |
185 |
5,404 |
1,604 |
23 |
1,230 |
50 |
6,580 |
Table A4.1.1 Dryland land use of area in table A4.1
|
|
|
Dryland landuse |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Current |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Irrigated area |
Pastoral |
Dairy |
Arable |
Flowers |
Fruit |
Nurseries |
Viticulture |
|
Waterbody |
Current |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Waiau |
16,500 |
14,500 |
0 |
2,000 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Hurunui |
4,000 |
4,000 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Waimakariri |
11,000 |
5,481 |
0 |
5,519 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Central Canterbury groundwater |
56,900 |
34,290 |
8,000 |
14,610 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Rakaia |
4,100 |
3,250 |
0 |
850 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Mid Canty groundwater |
50,015 |
26,415 |
0 |
23,600 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Rangitata |
63,860 |
51,088 |
0 |
12,772 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Opihi |
23,510 |
16,408 |
0 |
7,102 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Waitaki |
46,060 |
40,035 |
2,000 |
4,025 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Taieri |
10,000 |
10,000 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Manuherikia |
17,320 |
17,320 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Clutha |
9,520 |
9,520 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Waipapa |
1,450 |
0 |
775 |
40 |
20 |
600 |
15 |
0 |
|
Waikato River |
5,000 |
0 |
5,000 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Heretaunga Plains |
13,000 |
6,000 |
0 |
3,000 |
0 |
3,000 |
0 |
1,000 |
|
Ngaruroro catchment |
4,800 |
4,800 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Tukituki/Ruataniwha Plains |
3,500 |
3,500 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Ruamahanga catchment |
300 |
150 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
150 |
|
Motueka catchment |
2,160 |
400 |
1,400 |
0 |
0 |
330 |
0 |
30 |
|
Moutere catchment |
1,909 |
1,009 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
900 |
0 |
0 |
|
Waimea catchment |
4,798 |
2,478 |
900 |
150 |
0 |
800 |
0 |
470 |
|
Wairau catchment |
15,075 |
6,070 |
2,700 |
2,400 |
0 |
615 |
0 |
3,290 |
Contact for Enquiries
Water Programme of Action
Ministry for the Environment
PO Box 10-362
Wellington
or
Water Programme of Action
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
PO Box 2526
Wellington
Contact this person
